Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1131 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Overnight/early morning fog at times through next week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible at times into next week,
mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.

- Increasing rain chances mid week and next weekend?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Light patchy morning fog will give way to partly cloudy skies by
early afternoon. Late night and early morning fog will be possible
at times through the period. However, winds will be elevated keeping
the airmass mixed, thus patchy fog and visibilities generally above
4SM. Otherwise, unseasonably warm conditions will continue into next
week with temperatures remaining around 10-15 degrees above normal.

Rain chances will remain very low through Tuesday due to a mid to
upper level high pressure system over Mexico. Models have been
consistent with the high pressure shifting east Monday through
Tuesday as a deepening upper low moves southeastward from the
Pacific NW. This will result in a southwest flow aloft with embedded
short waves tracking across the region. A moderate to strong low
level jet will usher deeper moisture into S TX with PWATs increasing
to 1.2-1.5 inches by mid week. The deeper moisture, moderate
instability, and a mid level short wave will be conducive for
convective development, leading to a low to medium (20-30%) chance
of rain by the middle of next week. Rain fall amounts are expected
to less than 0.10 of an inch across the northern portions of S TX.
Models are showing another potential for rain next weekend. The
question is, will the cap be too strong for any rain?

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGS noted at ALI and VCT currently, but satellite
depiction indicates the band of lowest stratus is about to move past
ALI and could see an improvement there for a few hours before MVFR
CIGS likely develop once again. Think VIS reductions are largely not
going to be an issue tonight with more wind just above the
surface...and in some locations mixing down to the surface. Expect
winds to remain a bit elevated - toward 10kt - through the night for
all sites. VFR conditions return for the daytime Sunday before CIGS
will begin to redevelop overnight. Winds again look like they will
remain up a bit Sunday night to limit fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A moderate (BF 4) breeze will continue into early next week. Onshore
winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
breeze by Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week.
There is a 10-20% chance of showers Monday through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas.
However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions
are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday, across the Rio Grande
Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid
20s to lower 30s. Winds are expected to remain below thresholds
through Monday. However, winds may strengthen to critical levels by
next Tuesday, but this will also increase minimum relative humidity
values through the remainder of the week. Chances for rain will be
low through next Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  65  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          81  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            90  64  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             86  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          78  65  79  67 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           89  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        84  63  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  66  76  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83