What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 1, 5:52 AM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
- A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) exists for two rounds of strong to severe storms today.
- The primary threat for today is damaging winds with secondary threats of large hail and heavy rainfall.
- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday, with highs in the 80s through the workweek.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 1, 5:52 AM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
652 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
- A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) exists for two rounds of strong
to severe storms today.
- The primary threat for today is damaging winds with secondary
threats of large hail and heavy rainfall.
- A cold front will deliver drier weather and near-normal
temperatures beginning Tuesday, with highs in the 80s through
the workweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
Ridging has started to relax across the Middle Mississippi River
Valley today, with evidence being the larger-than-expected
coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. These storms have since
collapsed as post-sunset cooling continues with the region
remaining dry through at least 10z A fog threat may materialize
through the night with the 12z HREF showing a 40% - 50% chance of
dense fog across portions of West Tennessee, particularly around
the Tennessee River. However, evening thunderstorms have likely
introduced enough of a perturbation away from that solution to
decrease confidence in widespread fog, but areas of dense fog are
still possible.
The upper pattern will continue to see heights relax into
tomorrow morning. This trend will allow for storms to develop
across Missouri overnight with CAMs consistently bringing a line
of storms from the north near sunrise Monday morning. Although
CAMs did struggle with convection Sunday evening, they did
capture enough of the cold pool's effects on the instability to
still be worth using to synthesize the forecast. The past few
HRRR runs have let the atmosphere recover, bringing upwards of
2000 - 2500 J/kg MUCAPE throughout the region by 09z and is
backed up by both the REFS/HREF displaying ~2000 J/kg MUCAPE.
Therefore, a morning round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to occur Monday. Forecast soundings from this model
suite show deep layer shear out of the northwest, a bit too
orthogonal to the motion of the storms to keep them well
organized. Additionally, the REFS/HREF plumes show relatively low
925 mb - 850 mb RH along with poor lapse rates between 850 -
500 mb, which may also act to add in some MUCIN, further
inhibiting the severe threat. Regardless, the distinct signal
from the HRRR in regards to a bowing line moving through the
region this morning has been enough for SPC to introduce a
Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk for damaging winds and hail for
Monday.
Through the day, the line and associated outflow will continue to
push south and will likely reintensify after sunrise as surface
heating occurs. Forecast confidence begins to degrade rapidly
from this point Monday regarding convective evolution as
convective feedbacks begin to take hold on the environment.
Regardless, the past several HRRR, in conjunction with REFS/HREF,
continue to hint at redevelopment along the trailing outflow
boundary across northeastern Arkansas into the afternoon. The
westward progression of the outflow does not appear to be strong
enough to initiate storms across the region as the rest of the
complex moves south. Therefore, strong insolation and a very
humid air mass will accumulate large (3500+ J/kg) MLCAPE into the
mid afternoon. If this recovery is able to occur into our region,
a second round of strong to severe convection would be expected.
While all of the above is occurring, a trough axis will be
amplifying and swinging south, overspreading the region in broad,
30 - 40 knot 500 mb flow and subtle height falls. Storms that
develop would therefore have enough bulk shear available (25 -
30 knots) for storm organization into multi-cells and transient
supercells capable of damaging winds and severe hail through the
evening hours. Storms should gradually decrease in coverage after
sunset. Lastly, portions of the Mississippi River Delta may reach
heat indices of upwards of 105 F Monday afternoon, but the
presence of one or more convective complexes has prevented the
issuance of a Heat Advisory given low confidence in afternoon
temperatures.
The upper trough will continue to dig into the southeast CONUS
into the middle of this week with a surface high developing over
the Great Lakes and Northeast. This surface high will push drier,
cooler air southwestward into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-South
by Tuesday. Highs will drop into the upper 70s and low 80s with
noticeably less humid air as dewpoints fall towards 60 F. This
air mass will persist through Wednesday with highs beginning to
creep upward again by the end of the week as the surface high
shifts east and southerlies return. The forecast will, however,
remain mostly dry through Friday as a ridge also builds in aloft.
GEFS ensembles indicate that CAPE will tend to increase through
next weekend, indicating a return to afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
Monitoring two potential rounds of storms. The first is tracking
into SE MO and western KY this morning and will likely drop into
West TN this morning. This round should impact mainly MKL with
lesser chances at MEM and TUP. The second round will develop over
south-central MO later today and spread across much of the Mid-
South later this afternoon and this evening. JBR, MEM and TUP
will likely see storms from the second round with lesser chances
at MKL. Storms will clear the area by mid evening. There is a
chance of patchy fog with the clearing skies and light winds but
confidence is low.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026
No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early this
week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist
across the Mid-South through Monday night and into early Tuesday
morning, with sporadic showers and thunderstorms maintaining high
humidity and fuel moisture.
A drier pattern will emerge by the middle of this week as a cold
front moves through the region. Minimum relative humidity values
will begin to fall below 50% starting Tuesday afternoon, but
sodden vegetation is expected to keep fire danger low.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 1, 6:16 AM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
716 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
MSZ001-TNZ088-089-011245-
DeSoto MS-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
716 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN DESOTO...
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM
CDT...
At 716 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Southeast Memphis, or near Germantown, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Southaven, Collierville, Germantown, Olive Branch, Cordova,
Memphis, Lakeland, Arlington, Southeast Memphis, Eads, Piperton,
Rossville, Elmore Park, Brunswick, Lenow, Fisherville, Elba,
Canadaville, and Parkway Village.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 in Tennessee between mile markers 10 and 27.
Interstate 22 in Mississipppi between mile markers 1 and 3.
Interstate 240 between mile markers 12 and 23.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3534 8966 3500 8949 3499 8972 3497 8972
3494 8993 3511 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 252DEG 27KT 3506 8988
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SJMSpecial weather statement, Jun 1, 7:48 AM CST, 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
848 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
TNZ002>004-011415-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-Henry TN-
848 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WEAKLEY...NORTHEASTERN
OBION AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...
At 848 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fulgham, or near Fulton, moving southeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
McKenzie, Fulton, Dresden, South Fulton, Gleason, Cottage Grove,
Latham, Palmersville, Puryear, Matheny Grove, Ore Springs, Hyndsver,
Jones Mill, Foundry Hill, Ruthville, Crossland, Como, Mill Creek,
Osage, and Brundige.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3645 8823 3615 8852 3650 8900 3650 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1348Z 304DEG 34KT 3658 8891
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
AEH