Below normal precipitation amounts continued through much of January 2026. The largest deficits of 2 to 3 inches were found across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw severe drought conditions develop across portions of Stewart, Houston, and Montgomery counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Below normal precipitation amounts continued through much of January 2026. The largest deficits of 2 to 3 inches were found across northwest Middle Tennessee which saw severe drought conditions develop across portions of Stewart, Houston, and Montgomery counties. A major winter storm with substantial liquid precipitation brought slight improvement to Middle Tennessee during the end of the month. By the end of January, 30 percent of the area was in at least moderate drought conditions with 6 percent of this classified as severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:23 PM CST, 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1123 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 - Temperatures climb above normal starting tomorrow. - High rain chances Friday afternoon and Friday night. No hazardous weather is expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 929 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 With only a couple hours left in 2025, let me be the first to wish everyone a happy and healthy 2026. We're definitely kicking off the year with some quiet weather. With only a few high clouds out there, we'll be cool again tonight, but not nearly as cool as last night with the southwest boundary layer flow. Upper 20s to low 30s are expected by sunrise on New Year's Day. As we remain in this flow pattern for another 36 to 48 hours, afternoon highs tomorrow will climb a few degrees warmer than we saw today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 929 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 The big story of this forecast package continues to be our one and only weather system this week. This will come in the form of a low pressure system that will develop tomorrow afternoon in the TX panhandle and traverse the southern tier of the US through Sunday. As it does, Gulf of America moisture will be pulled northward Thursday night into Friday morning and by lunch time on Friday, showers will start to move into our southwest counties. Typically, there's a question to the location of the warm front with these systems when it comes to thunderstorms and this one is no different. Unfortunately, there isn't really a consensus on how far north the warm front will make it. The NAM maintains a warm front as far north as I-40 and while our other global models are a little further north than last night, a blend of all solutions would put the warm front around the TN-AL state line. Let it be said, the 00Z HRRR does have it a little further north than that. Of note, the QPF associated with this system has ticked up again, with a range of 0.25" across our northern counties to 0.75" across our south. This is likely due to the warm front being depicted slightly further north than previous runs. In the end, unless the NAM verifies, the likelihood of any thunder is low and no hazards are expected. Showers will spread across the mid-state through the afternoon Friday and likely won't exit Middle TN until late Saturday morning. Outside of the Friday-Saturday rain, our next shot of rain may not arrive until this time next week, but after a very short dip in temperatures Sunday, a quick rebound above normal is expected to last through most of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR conditions with light south winds through the TAF period. Latest trends suggest mid clouds previously forecasted will stay across eastern KY. With this, took out the FEW 030-050 over the Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 32 57 38 56 / 0 0 0 80 Clarksville 31 53 35 51 / 0 0 0 70 Crossville 27 50 35 54 / 0 0 0 50 Columbia 31 58 40 58 / 0 0 0 80 Cookeville 27 51 35 53 / 0 0 0 50 Jamestown 27 49 34 52 / 0 0 0 50 Lawrenceburg 30 58 39 57 / 0 0 0 80 Murfreesboro 29 57 37 57 / 0 0 0 70 Waverly 31 55 38 53 / 0 0 0 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Cravens
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions across eastern Cumberland County from December 2025 continued through January 2026.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, January 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1304336.