A subtle mid-level shortwave trough began to traverse the Mid-South in the late morning hours. A combination of adequate daytime heating, surface dewpoints in the low 60s, around 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE, about 35 kts of effective shear, and elevated surface and mid-level lapse rates was in place heading into the afternoon hours.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough began to traverse the Mid-South in the late morning hours. A combination of adequate daytime heating, surface dewpoints in the low 60s, around 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE, about 35 kts of effective shear, and elevated surface and mid-level lapse rates was in place heading into the afternoon hours. This translated into an environment that was conducive for rapid convective development capable of producing damaging winds and large hail up to 2.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 16, 1:43 PM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 243 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - A Marginal and Slight Risk (level 1/5 and 2/5, respectively) for severe storms is in place today. Hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns. - Well above-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday. Friday will be the warmest with highs near 90 degrees. - Cool and dry air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday. Fire weather concerns will emerge at this time and persist into Monday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 The latest satellite imagery depicts an upper level shortwave digging south into the region. As a result, storms are beginning to fire in southeast MO. These storms house healthy hail cores, characterized by 60+ dBZ to 30,000 ft. Quarter and half-dollar sized hail has been reported with these storms. This activity will continue east into northeast AR and the MO Bootheel over the next hour or two. As of 230 PM, mesoscale analysis places 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River. In addition, midlevel lapse rates are approaching 7C/km and bulk shear is around 40 kts. This parameter space will encourage hail formation in storms as they move into the forecast area. Very large hail, up to 2 inches, is not out of the question through the evening hours. Regarding tornadic potential, 0-1 km helicity values will max out at 50 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear is less than 25 kts. Further hampering tornadic potential are LCL heights around 1000 m. The main concern through the evening will be hail and damaging winds. ANS && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 As of 1230 PM, dissipating showers continue to move across the Tennessee River. Behind this activity, clearing skies are evident on satellite with a developing cu field over southern MO. Efficient daytime heating and surface dewpoints in the low 60s will favor elevated instability this afternoon. The latest HREF places greater than 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River. This, combined with elevated surface and midlevel lapse rates, will translate to an environment conducive to rapid convective development. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns with any storms that develop this afternoon and evening. Given the strongly buoyant environment, hail stones may reach 2" in diameter. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a 2% tornado outlook for this afternoon. However, forecast soundings depict sub-optimal SRH and shear, thus rendering the tornado threat near zero. Outside of the severe weather threat, beneficial rainfall will accompany storms. Depending on where storms set up, rainfall totals will vary widely. Areas impacted directly by storms may see 1 - 2 inches of rain fall through this evening. Elsewhere, only a half inch of rain is anticipated. While this will not be a drought-buster, it will help alleviate a bit of the recent dry spell. Temperatures on Friday will soar into the upper 80s as a strong ridge builds into the Mid-South. There is potential for several climate sites to reach 90 degrees tomorrow. Should this occur, it will beat the average first 90 degree day of the year by about a month. Luckily, cooler temperatures are on the horizon as an upper level trough and attendant cold front impact the region on Saturday. Rain chances will increase Saturday morning as decaying convection moves into the Mid-South. Environmental destabilization will be limited by cloud cover through the afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon, but the severe weather window will be brief as most guidance depicts the front overtaking convection rather quickly. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5" are anticipated with this system. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South on Sunday behind the aforementioned front. Elevated fire weather danger will exist through Monday as relative humidity falls below 30 percent and dead fuel moisture reaches 10 percent. Surface winds will remain less than 15 mph, negating the need for a Red Flag Warning. Outside of fire weather concerns, Sunday and Monday will feature near-normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s. Long range guidance keeps the Mid-South in northwest flow through midweek before upper level ridging returns in the Wednesday / Thursday timeframe. A few showers may occur at this time, but there remains no major signal for appreciable rainfall through the middle of next week. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Low confidence TSRA forecast this afternoon and evening. An upper level disturbance will trigger TSRAs over the next couple of hours, however, coverage and location of storms remains uncertain. We decided to keep a larger window for PROB30 at JBR, MEM, and MKL this afternoon and evening. The coverage of TSRA this afternoon/evening will largely determine the VCTS being carried at MEM around the FedEx push tonight. VFR conditions will persist across all sites outside of TSRAs. Gusty south winds will develop tomorrow morning as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Fire weather concerns return on Sunday as MinRH values drop below 30% and dead fuel moisture reaches 10%. This may necessitate a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement through Monday. Increasing humidity will be in place Tuesday, returning fire weather concerns to minimal through the end of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...AC3
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
349 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM Hail Success 36.45N 90.72W
04/16/2026 E1.75 Inch Clay AR Broadcast Media
Report of approximately golf ball size hail
near Success.
&&
CMAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
351 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM Hail Success 36.45N 90.72W
04/16/2026 E1.75 Inch Clay AR Broadcast Media
Report of approximately golf ball size hail
near Success (2 miles north).
&&
CMASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
443 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
TNZ001>003-162215-
Weakley TN-Lake TN-Obion TN-
443 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY...NORTHERN
OBION AND NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...
At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Hunter-Dawson State Historic Site, moving east at
55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Martin, Union City, Fulton, South Fulton, Troy, Clayton, Woodland
Mills, Rives, Samburg, Mount Pelia, Wright, Cronanville, Shaffner,
Roneys Store, Terrell, Proctor City, Fremont, Spout Springs, Walnut
Log, and Old Fremont.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3650 8881 3627 8885 3641 8951 3650 8950
3650 8949 3647 8949 3646 8947 3650 8942
3651 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 275DEG 46KT 3652 8941
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
AEHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
455 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
MOZ113-115-162215-
Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
455 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM CDT...
At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Campbell, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Malden, Portageville, Campbell, Clarkton, Holcomb, Baird, Providence,
McGuires, Morris State Park, Hayward, and Wilhelmina.
This includes Interstate 55 in Missouri between mile markers 30 and
31.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and southeastern Missouri.
&&
LAT...LON 3654 8995 3639 8997 3639 8975 3643 8973
3640 8967 3641 8963 3639 8962 3636 9006
3638 9006 3640 9008 3640 9011 3643 9015
3644 9013 3648 9014 3648 9016 3650 9016
3650 9018 3651 9019 3660 8997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 256DEG 30KT 3646 9008
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
AEHThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:06 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were reported down in the South Fulton area.
Tree fell on home along Ralston Road in Martin.
Report of roof damage on Pillowville Gleason Road associated with an outflow boundary.
Tree reported downed on Henry Midway Road.
Tree downed across the intersection of Log Cabin Road and Buchanan Road.
Reported tree downed across the intersaction of West Antioch and East Antioch Road.
Reported tree down on Mansfield Roat at Vale Road.
Several trees and powerlines downed across Benton County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, April 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1332772, 1332780, 1332815, 1332786, 1332789, 1332799, 1332804, 1332814.