Damaging Winds in Kentucky, April 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
715 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered storms possible this evening in south-
  central Kentucky.

* Warm and dry on Friday with highs in the 80s.

* Strong cold front will bring widespread showers and scattered
  thunderstorms to the region on Saturday. There remains a low-end
  risk of strong storms with this system. Much cooler air will
  arrive late Saturday and Sunday, with a patchy frost likely Monday
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Conditions remain mainly dry this afternoon, but we do have a band
of mostly light showers developing over the Bluegrass Region this
afternoon. A band of broken lower clouds also stretches SW through
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions along a remnant convective
outflow boundary. Differential heating and weak convergence will
result in a narrow band of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms,
through 5 PM EDT before this activity pushes into eastern KY.
Locally gusty winds are possible with any storms, but severe weather
is unlikely.

Upstream, deep convection has developed across southern MO, where an
upper level shortwave trough is interacting with richer low-level
moisture and increasingly unstable airmass. This mid/upper level
wave will pass east over the Lower OH Valley late this evening. A
consensus of CAMs develops a cluster of convection southeast
across western KY/TN this evening. The northern portion of this
activity should move over portions of south-central KY shortly
after 7 PM CDT this evening, but any thunderstorms should weaken
with time due to waning instability. There is a low risk
(5-10%) a strong thunderstorm could survive into the
southwestern CWA, but if this occurs, locally strong wind gusts,
small hail, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall would be
possible.

After Midnight, dry weather is expected with clearing skies as upper
level shortwave ridging noses in from the west. Winds will be light,
with Friday morning lows in the mid/upper 50s.

Upper level ridging amplifies as it shifts over the eastern US
Friday and Friday night. Upstream, an upper level trough will swing
east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Sfc low pressure
deepens northeast from the central Plains, reaching James Bay by 12Z
Saturday. We'll remain dry and warm on Friday, with lingering
ridging aloft and warm southerly low-level flow. Afternoon
temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s, and a few spots may
top out in the upper 80s.

Friday night, a long trailing cold front will push southeast through
the Midwest and Mid-MS Valley. Rain chances begin to increase in
southern IN by early Saturday morning (09-12Z) with the approaching
cold front. Much of the night will be dry, with mild temps in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

===== Showers and Storms Saturday =====

A large scale upper level trough will continue east over the Midwest
Saturday into Saturday night. We'll see increasing SW flow aloft on
the southeastern flank of this trough. The sfc cold front will
plunge southeast through the region during the daytime (12Z-00Z).
Numerous showers with scattered embedded thunderstorms appear
likely. Thickening cloud cover and the arrival of precipitation from
NW to SE will likely limit sfc warming and overall destabilization
on Saturday. Modest destabilization will limit the overall severe
weather risk. Strong deep-layer SW winds will provide organization
for any convective activity, which could promote isolated strong to
severe wind gusts with any organized cells or line segments.

Winds are forecast to veer northwesterly Saturday evening in the
wake of the cold front. Showery weather will be possible into the
evening hours, with much cooler air streaming in from the NW.
Temperatures are forecast to drop through the 50s during the evening
hours, with low to mid 40s expected by early Sunday morning.
Conditions dry out by Saturday night.

===== Cooler Early Next Week =====

Cool high pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday. Look
for fair weather with highs in the 60s. Diminishing winds may allow
for areas of frost late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Lows
Monday morning are currently expected to be in the mid 30s to low
40s. Temperatures will gradually warm heading into the middle of
next week due to rising heights aloft and low-level WAA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A round of rain and thunderstorms are currently moving into the
Bowling Green area, with the main threat including gusty winds
nearing 30kts. These storms are expected to weaken as they travel
east. Otherwise, all other sites can expect some clearing skies
through tonight with light (3-4kt) SW winds. Winds will slightly
pick up tomorrow for HNB/BWG/SDF and begin to shift more southerly.
VFR conditions remain through the day tomorrow with partly cloudy
(10-25kft) skies.  Tomorrow night, marginal LLWS can be possible
(HNB/SDF) associated with the cold front moving into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
400 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-172000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
400 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 /300 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in south-central Kentucky
this evening. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail, and gusty
winds are the main threats with this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A strong cold front will push through the region on Saturday bringing
a round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is a low
risk of strong thunderstorms in areas mainly east of I-65 and north
of I-64. The main severe weather hazards on Saturday will be heavy
rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW