Anomalously dry conditions persisted across much of central Pennsylvania through March 2026, with USDM D2 (severe) drought persisting across portions of southern Pennsylvania with improvement across portions of eastern Pennsylvania. This improvement was towards the latter half of the month due to a combination of increased precipitation and snowmelt.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Anomalously dry conditions persisted across much of central Pennsylvania through March 2026, with USDM D2 (severe) drought persisting across portions of southern Pennsylvania with improvement across portions of eastern Pennsylvania. This improvement was towards the latter half of the month due to a combination of increased precipitation and snowmelt.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 6:14 PM EST, 5 hours 46 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 614 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Little change in the coating to ~1 inch snowfall amounts expected for late tonight/early Sunday across mainly the higher terrain across the northern half of PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026. 2) Light rain and snow tonight/Sunday morning. 3) Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026 Another mostly sunny and mild afternoon today to close out the month of feb, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to range from the mid/upper 40s across the NW Mtns to low 60s throughout the central and southern valleys of PA. Moisture-starved cold front is pushing into the Mid Susq Valley and Scent PA as of 19Z, and deeper/colder air is lagging this sfc boundary by several hours. KEY MESSAGE 2: Light rain and snow tonight/Sunday morning. A weak wave of low pressure (linked to a period of meso-B scale UVVEL beneath the right entrance region of an upper level jet max) is expected to develop tonight along a stalled frontal boundary to our south. These weather features will combine to bring light precipitation to Central PA later tonight into Sunday morning. Accumulating snow will largely be confined to areas north of I-80 (and focused at elevations AOA 1500 ft MSL), where anywhere from a coating to 1.5 inches is likely. Model soundings suggest that areas farther to the south may struggle to see saturation reach into the dendritic growth zone (that will be located around the top of the cloudy layer - near and above 10 KFT AGL), potentially leading to light rain or some light sleet showers/freezing drizzle being the predominant weather types. A light glaze of ice appears possible for areas south of I-80 and north of the turnpike, though the very mild ground temps this afternoon doesn't provide a good setup for that. KEY MESSAGE 3: Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March March comes in more like a lion vs. lamb, but just a short wintry roar before springlike conditions take over. Modified arctic high migrating southeast from the Great Lakes now provides a chilly and dry day on Monday. This setup favors CAD/overrunning wintry mix scenario for Tuesday as moisture spreads north/east into retreating cold sector. Despite its magnitude 1040mb, the high appears somewhat transient which suggests a progressive wintry mix to rain ptype transition from SW to NE by later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Timing will likely shift around, but the main themes from next Wednesday through the first weekend of March will be increasingly mild with periods of rain. A sizable and springlike warming trend appears to have staying power based on the 6-10/8-14 day CPC temp outlooks. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will give way to lower conditions later tonight into early Sunday afternoon, as a strong cold front moves southeast across central PA. Some patchy rain and snow expected, but amts will be limited. Most likely location for low conditions will be BFD. Conditions will improve later Sunday, as a large dry high pressure system builds into the area, and remain across the area on Monday. A warm front lifting northeast on Tuesday will bring more adverse conditions at times after Monday. Outlook... Mon...VFR likely. Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain. Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible in periods of rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco DISCUSSION...Bauco AVIATION...Martin
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1141 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-020445- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- 1141 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible on Tuesday before changing to or ending as rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-020445- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 1141 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible on Tuesday before changing to or ending as rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across eastern of Schuylkill County from February into early March 2026. However, increased rainfall combined with snowmelt led to improvement and removal of D2 drought conditions from Schuylkill County on March 10, 2026.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across Adams County through much of March 2026. However, increased rainfall towards the end of the month allowed for severe drought conditions to be removed across the county on March 31, 2026.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across southeastern Bedford County through much of March 2026. However, increased rainfall towards the end of the month allowed for severe drought conditions to be removed across the county on March 31, 2026.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across southwestern Bedford County through much of March 2026. However, increased rainfall towards the end of the month allowed for severe drought conditions to be removed across the county on March 31, 2026.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across southwestern York County through much of March 2026. However, increased rainfall towards the end of the month allowed for severe drought conditions to be removed across the county on March 31, 2026.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across southern Fulton County through March 2026. Some light rainfall throughout the month allowed for little expansion of the severe drought but the lack of more widespread rainfall maintained the severe drought across the county, where a Drought Warning remained in effect by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for the entire month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions persisted across central Franklin County through March 2026. Some light rainfall throughout the month allowed for little expansion of the severe drought but the lack of more widespread rainfall maintained the severe drought across the county, where a Drought Warning remained in effect by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for the entire month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1312128, 1317644, 1317645, 1317646, 1317647, 1317648, 1317649.