Damaging Wind in Oregon, May 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
115 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...

Key Points:

* Minor/low impacts over the next several days

* Unsettled and cooler weather next several days
    - Below/near normal temperatures common through this weekend
    - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms next few days
        - Not expecting widespread severe weather at this time
        - Main threats are lightning and strong gusts (40-55 mph)

Further Details:

The upper levels will be noted by a closed 500mb low that sort of
meanders over the Reno/Lake Tahoe area cut off from the mean flow
the next several days. By Friday night, this low does finally get
absorbed into the main flow and exits the region. Afterwards, we
go into a pseudo-zonal flow pattern aloft with consensus of a
500mb low setting up over the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday. This
trough may be the next potential weather maker early to middle of
next week, but current signals point to more activity north of our
forecast area.

The position of the aforementioned 500mb low over the next few days
will allow for small pieces of PVA to rotate around and pass over
the forecast area. This will aid in our east to west convection
pattern over the coming days, especially as convective temperatures
are reach during peak heating. While the threat of thunderstorms
exists today, these will be very isolated in nature, but both
Wednesday and Thursday could see more scattered activity. Its not
too common to see east to west convection for the Medford
forecast area, but the position of the low will allow for this
chance. It will be interesting to see how much convection starts
east of the Cascades and how much makes it over the Cascades/forms
west of the Cascades. Given the instability and energy aloft,
this is certainly a good possibility and this could resemble what
happened on May 3rd for westside areas. DCAPE and storm motion
would suggest that strong erratic gusts of 45 to 55 mph is
certainly possible. On Wednesday in particular, forecast
soundings/hodographs are suggesting storm motion could be as fast
as 35-45mph, so it would not take much downward momentum from
evaporative cooling processes to get gusts over 45 mph. In fact,
isolated gusts of 60-65mph is certainly possible with these storm
motions and dry air near the surface. While storm motion is
overall slower on Thursday, there will still be a threat of strong
wind gusts from thunderstorms given DCAPE values.

It should be noted that we are not forecasting non-stop rain the
next several days. There will be plenty of breaks with much of the
activity around peak heating in the afternoon and early evening.
Peak heating from 2pm-8pm will see the greatest overall threat for
lightning and strong wind gusts.

Temperatures remain on the cooler side through this weekend.
Thursday and Sunday will see temperatures closer to normal, but
overall our afternoons will be below normal. By next week (depending
on the Gulf of Alaska low) we could see temperatures back above
normal. Ensembles are suggesting the low wont impact us too much
with high pressure more likely for our area given cluster
analysis.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

MVFR and areas of IFR (south coast) will continue at the coast
with rain showers through much of today. Inland, expect rain
showers, mountain obscurations, and lower ceilings with areas of
MVFR, mainly from the Cascades west, but also locally east of the
Cascades. Conditions gradually improve to VFR late this morning
and afternoon, though higher mountains probably remain at least
partially obscured. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon/early evening, but especially in NorCal. Areas of MVFR
may redevelop (20-30% chance) late this evening/night along the
coast and into the Umpqua Valley, with showers and breezy winds
continuing across the region.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, May 26, 2026...Steep
northwest swell-dominated seas will continue today. While seas
will gradually subside tonight into Wednesday morning, they are
expected to remain steep and hazardous.

After brief, slight improvement, high pressure offshore and
lingering low pressure inland will again bring increasing north
winds on Wednesday afternoon with the strongest winds likely to
occur south of Gold Beach. The gusty north winds and a long period
west-northwest swell will produce very steep seas Wednesday night
through Thursday night. Conditions may briefly improve on Friday.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Long period northwest swell, originating from
recent storms near the Kamchatka and western Aleutian Islands,
will build into the southern oregon coastal waters beginning
Wedensday evening. Initially arriving as 2 to 3 feet at around 20
seconds, swell will peak at 6 to 8 feet at around 17 seconds
during the day Thursday. The threat will be highest during periods
of incoming tides, which will be during the morning, and during
the late afternoon and evening on Thursday.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than
normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly
knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The
waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or
trap anyone caught underneath. Avoid climbing on rocks and
jetties. Stay away from the ocean and remain out of the water to
avoid hazardous conditions. Never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday evening through late
     Thursday night for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 PM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&