What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 26, 6:35 PM EST, 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a flash flood risk today through Wednesday with high chance for measurable rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weather expected for the end of the week.
Area forecast discussion, May 26, 6:35 PM EST, 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
735 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update.
Some patchy fog was added to the weather grids for Wednesday
morning.
Very little change in forecast philosophy, with focus on
periodic shower/storm threat through Wednesday and drying trend
for the end of the week.
There is a risk for excessive rainfall, but probability for
widespread occurrence is low due to dry antecedent conditions.
There is a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon
for the Eastern Piedmont.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a flash flood risk today through
Wednesday with high chance for measurable rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weather expected for the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a flash flood risk today through
Wednesday with high chance for measurable rainfall.
The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the
forecast area with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today
and tonight, generally south of I-64. After yesterday's heavy
rainfall, where some locations picked up 4-6", any additional
rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Despite the drought,
recent rains have begun to wet the top layer of soil, and have
caused rivers and streams to rise back to normal levels. The
synoptic setup is virtually unchanged with potential for late
afternoon and evening showers/storms, the stronger storms
containing high rain rates with any sort of training of storm
cells leading to localized heavy rainfall.
Very high moisture content is present within the atmosphere,
with precipitable water values around 1.5-2.0". This is due to
tropical moisture being pulled into the area from the Bermuda
high in the Atlantic and a disturbance along the Gulf Coast. Any
showers/storms will have efficient rainfall with high rain
rates of 3-4" per hour at times. Should these efficient storms
train over the same area, then rain totals again could be
several inches in those locations. If training storms occur over
the same areas as yesterday, then flash flooding would be much
more likely. Urban, low-lying, and flood- prone areas will be
the most susceptible to flooding.
The flooding risk continues on Wednesday as a stationary front
remains stalled across the area, with an area-wide Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall currently in place. Should heavy rainfall
happen today, this risk could be upgraded. There is also a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Severe weather is
possible Wednesday afternoon for the Eastern Piedmont, as an
upper-level trough swings down from the Great Lakes Region. The
main threat is for isolated damaging wind gusts. Current
forecast soundings show ample CAPE and modest lapse rates, which
support strong storms capable of producing damaging winds.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weather expected for the end of the week.
By Thursday, a strong high pressure system finally pushes the
stalled front south of our area. While this will allow skies to
clear out some, rain chances may linger briefly for Thursday
before more sustainable drying occurs for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across the area,
flight conditions will vary from VFR to periods of MVFR to IFR
over the 24 hour TAF period. While scattered showers and
thunderstorms should dissipate slowly through the remainder of
the evening and overnight hours, some showers may linger through
the morning hours. With excess moisture in place across the
region, patchy fog is expected to develop areawide. This may
lead to MVFR to LIFR VSBYs developing at most terminals by 06
UTC through daybreak at 12 UTC. By daybreak on Wednesday, the
surface fog should lift; however, some low level CIGs may linger
through the morning hours before lifting. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected at nearly all terminals
Wednesday afternoon and evening leading to the potential for
periodic MVFR to IFR restrictions developing, as well as gusty
erratic winds in and around showers and thunderstorms.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
By Thursday, the stalled front pushes south of the area, with
high pressure from the north moving in. While shower/storms may
still be possible, they will be isolated and primarily limited
to our southern locations, such as DAN. This will allow for
mostly VFR flight conditions to return to the remainder of the
terminals. VFR will be expected to continue, though fog remains
possible during the overnight hours.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
Hazardous weather outlook, May 26, 3:09 AM EST, 15 hours 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-270815-
Tazewell-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
409 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
A Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for today as
afternoon showers/storms will cause isolated flash flooding where the
heaviest storms occur or move over the same locations due to high
rainfall rates.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is also forecast for Wednesday
as repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue into
Wednesday due to a stalled front across the area. After recent heavy
rains, the flash flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where
showers/storms train over the same areas. Storms will have the
capability of producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-023-032-033-043-270815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-
409 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for today due to
expected showers/storms this afternoon that will have very high rain
rates of 3-4" per hour. Forecast models show a similar setup to
yesterday, where storms train over the same areas, which could lead
to flash flooding. Urban, low-lying, and flood-prone areas will be
the most susceptible. Some locations received over 4" of rain
yesterday, which makes those areas especially vulnerable to flash
flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for Wednesday as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue into
Wednesday due to a stalled front across the area. After recent heavy
rains, the flash flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where
showers/storms train over the same areas. Storms will have the
capability of producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
VAZ024-034-035-044>047-058-059-270815-
Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
409 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and west central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for today due to
expected showers/storms this afternoon that will have very high rain
rates of 3-4" per hour. Forecast models show a similar setup to
yesterday, where storms train over the same areas, which could lead
to flash flooding. Urban, low-lying, and flood-prone areas will be
the most susceptible. Some locations received over 4" of rain
yesterday, which makes those areas especially vulnerable to flash
flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is forecast for Wednesday as
repeated rounds of rain, some heavy at times, will continue into
Wednesday due to a stalled front across the area. After recent heavy
rains, the flash flooding risk is more of a concern, especially where
showers/storms train over the same areas. Storms will have the
capability of producing rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour.
Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday afternoon, as a
Marginal Risk has been issued. Afternoon storms will be capable of
producing isolated damaging wind gusts.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 26, 3:33 PM EST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
433 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
NCZ005-006-262100-
Rockingham NC-Caswell NC-
433 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND
CASWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...
At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Quick, or near Camp Springs, moving northeast at
50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
Providence...
Jericho...
and Camp Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3626 7988 3654 7952 3653 7914 3639 7915
3625 7932 3624 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 237DEG 43KT 3637 7953
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ASSpecial weather statement, May 26, 4:22 PM EST, 2 hours 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
VAZ044-262200-
Pittsylvania VA-
522 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY AND THE CITY OF DANVILLE THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Danville, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Danville...
Blairs...
Westover Hills...
Ringgold...
and Keeling.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3657 7948 3672 7942 3672 7930 3664 7920
3654 7934 3654 7943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 211DEG 17KT 3660 7939
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ASSpecial weather statement, May 26, 4:27 PM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
527 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
VAZ033-262200-
Franklin VA-
527 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...
At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ferrum, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Ferrum...
Penhook...
Endicott...
Callaway...
Sontag...
and Wirtz.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3685 8009 3686 8016 3691 8020 3695 8017
3695 8014 3698 8014 3709 7991 3705 7977
3695 7962 3684 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 235DEG 16KT 3693 7996
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ASSpecial weather statement, May 26, 4:59 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
559 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
VAZ033-262230-
Franklin VA-
559 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EDT...
At 559 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rocky Mount, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Boones Mill...
Ferrum...
Penhook...
Burnt Chimney...
Western Smith Mountain Lake...
and Union Hall.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
&&
LAT...LON 3705 8009 3716 7992 3719 7989 3716 7973
3703 7960 3700 7961 3690 7999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 233DEG 21KT 3703 7995
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ASSpecial weather statement, May 26, 5:15 PM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
615 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
VAZ044-045-058-262245-
Halifax VA-Campbell VA-Pittsylvania VA-
615 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...
At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hurt, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Altavista...
Hurt...
Hodges...
Cody...
Gladys...
Long Island...
and Straightstone.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3698 7935 3715 7939 3715 7938 3725 7907
3712 7899 3697 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 251DEG 14KT 3703 7927
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ASSpecial weather statement, May 26, 5:46 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
646 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
NCZ001-002-019-262315-
Ashe NC-Wilkes NC-Alleghany NC-
646 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY...CENTRAL
WILKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ASHE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH 715 PM EDT...
At 646 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Maple Springs, or near Wilbar, moving northeast at
35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Laurel Springs...
Traphill...
Wilbar...
Mc Grady...
Darby...
Mulberry...
and Wilkesboro Reservoir.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3604 8138 3604 8140 3605 8139 3607 8141
3608 8143 3607 8144 3609 8146 3609 8147
3610 8148 3610 8151 3612 8154 3614 8150
3619 8146 3621 8146 3645 8126 3636 8102
3603 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 217DEG 31KT 3620 8134
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AS