What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 5:35 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
- The potential for locally heavy rainfall totals that could lead to rapid onset flash flooding is the main concern through Saturday morning.
- There is a limited severe weather risk this afternoon and evening with any storms that develop.
- A big shift in the weather pattern will bring hot, humid and dry weather starting this weekend on into next week. Heat advisory headlines will likely be needed.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 26, 5:35 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
- The potential for locally heavy rainfall totals that could lead
to rapid onset flash flooding is the main concern through
Saturday morning.
- There is a limited severe weather risk this afternoon and
evening with any storms that develop.
- A big shift in the weather pattern will bring hot, humid and
dry weather starting this weekend on into next week. Heat
advisory headlines will likely be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
A boundary extends from an area of low pressure over the TX
Panhandle along the OK/KS border region and into the Ozarks of
Missouri. The boundary is slowly sagging south and is expected to
focus convection over NE OK and SW MO, possibly into far NW AR,
this afternoon with increasing coverage into the evening. Some
additional warm advection storms are also expected overnight,
mainly north of the boundary. Slow-moving and/or training storms
in a high PWAT environment will have the potential to drop
locally high-end totals somewhere across NE OK and far NW AR
through Saturday morning. CAMs suggest potential for isolated 3 to
7 inch amounts. With the soils already fairly saturated, most of
this rainfall is likely to become runoff, leading to rapid-onset
flash flooding. Some main- stem river flooding is also possible.
The going Flood Watch has been extended in time to 7 AM Saturday,
and expanded in area to include Benton and Carroll counties in AR
near the MO border.
Deep-layer shear is weaker today, so a more organized severe
weather event is not expected. However, storms may certainly
become severe at least briefly, with the primary threat being
locally damaging wind. Marginally severe hail is possible. The
severe threat will peak during the afternoon and into the early
evening hours, dropping off overnight.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
There will be some chance for storms into Saturday morning as
whatever is left coming off the High Plains this afternoon comes
east. It is possible than an MCV forms and helps to keep the
activity going farther east. While the potential for heavy
rainfall will be dropping by this time, any additional rains on
top of areas hit hard tonight could lead to more flooding. By
Saturday afternoon, low pressure developing over northeast CO will
draw the boundary north and away from the region, as upper heights
rise with the building ridge downstream from the western CONUS
trough. This will bring an end to the recent wet regime, and we
will make an abrupt shift toward hot, humid and dry weather as we
head into next week. While a few spots could get close to advisory
criteria along the highway 75 corridor in NE OK as soon as
tomorrow afternoon, the afternoon heat index forecast leans toward
Monday as the first day of what could be several days in a row of
heat headlines next week.
Ensemble means place the H5 ridge center initially over the
Mississippi Valley with a shift toward the Ohio Valley as we head
deeper into next week. Daily storm chances along the lee trough
will stay out west, while moisture will begin to increase from the
southeast on the back side of the ridge. Some low chances for
mainly afternoon terrain-enduced showers and storms are possible
beginning the middle of next week. By next weekend, ensemble data
has the ridge retrograding over our area and then to our west with
very little in the way of rain chances.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Thunderstorms will continue to develop in northeast Oklahoma,
shift southeast, and expand across much of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. A complex of storms could anchor across
the region late tonight resulting in prolonged disrupted
flight conditions, including IFR in the heavy rain, and
strong surface winds. Thunderstorms will begin to diminish
Saturday morning, with decreasing clouds. VFR conditions are
expected across the area Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 76 92 79 / 50 70 30 0
FSM 91 77 93 77 / 30 20 10 0
MLC 90 79 92 78 / 30 10 10 0
BVO 90 72 91 75 / 50 80 20 0
FYV 86 73 89 72 / 30 30 20 0
BYV 85 72 88 74 / 40 40 30 0
MKO 88 76 91 76 / 20 30 20 0
MIO 87 72 90 76 / 70 60 30 0
F10 89 76 91 76 / 20 20 20 0
HHW 90 77 92 74 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ055>070-154-254-354.
AR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002.
&&
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 26, 5:23 PM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-272330-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited to Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing...waning after midnight.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated to Significant.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 7 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and north of highway 412.
DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.
DISCUSSION...
Numerous storms are expected to develop near a boundary across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Some storms may become
severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.
Intense rain rates from slow-moving and/or training storms will
yield elevated to significant flash flood potential tonight.
Locally high-end rainfall totals are possible, in the 3 to 7 inch
range. With soils fairly saturated, most of this rain will likely
be runoff and cause dangerous rapid-onset flash flooding.
Flooding on main-stem rivers is also possible if rains fall in
the right basins.
Heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees are occurring in
spots across northeast Oklahoma, especially in the Arkansas River
Valley. Conditions will improve after sunset this evening.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...High Wind...Dangerous Heat Potential.
TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...Dangerous Heat Potential.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and storms may linger into early Saturday before ending.
Hot, humid, and breezy conditions are then expected for the rest
of this weekend through much of next week. Afternoon heat index
values will likely exceed 105 degrees in many places Saturday
through Thursday and heat headlines may be needed across parts of
the forecast area through much of next week. Low thunderstorm
chances may return to the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas by the middle of next week.
weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 26, 6:12 PM CST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
712 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
OKZ056-057-270045-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
712 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...
At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northeast of Lenapah, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
is possible.
Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville... Lenapah...
Centralia...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.
&&
LAT...LON 3674 9533 3685 9570 3700 9564 3700 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 281DEG 14KT 3689 9559
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 6:35 PM CST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
735 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
OKZ059-270100-
Pawnee OK-
735 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...
At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Sooner Lake to 3 miles northeast
of Lake Mcmurtry. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee... Sooner Lake...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.
&&
LAT...LON 3644 9690 3642 9676 3624 9682 3625 9692
3633 9693 3634 9703 3645 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 312DEG 8KT 3643 9705 3622 9716
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 6:55 PM CST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
755 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
OKZ055>057-270130-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
755 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CRAIG...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...
At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms extending from 2 miles southwest of Caney to 12 miles
south of Edna. Movement was east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
is possible.
Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville... Welch...
Bluejacket... Lenapah...
Wann... Hollow...
Pyramid Corners... Centralia...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.
&&
LAT...LON 3673 9505 3682 9579 3700 9591 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 273DEG 10KT 3699 9596 3688 9534
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPHSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 7:28 PM CST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
828 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
OKZ056-057-270200-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
828 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CRAIG AND
NORTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...
At 828 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
east of Lenapah, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
South Coffeyville... Lenapah...
Hollow... Centralia...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.
&&
LAT...LON 3671 9522 3679 9564 3700 9577 3700 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 275DEG 15KT 3682 9553
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 7:53 PM CST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
853 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
OKZ059-270230-
Pawnee OK-
853 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY
THROUGH 930 PM CDT...
At 853 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Glencoe, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee... Maramec...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.
&&
LAT...LON 3634 9697 3636 9667 3616 9669 3616 9682
3624 9682 3625 9684 3625 9692 3633 9693
3633 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 276DEG 9KT 3625 9690
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial weather statement, Jun 26, 8:12 PM CST, 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
OKZ056-057-270245-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
912 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CRAIG AND EAST
CENTRAL NOWATA COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...
At 912 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 13 miles
north of White Oak, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
around unsecured objects.
Locations in or near the path include...
Centralia...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.
&&
LAT...LON 3672 9548 3691 9540 3685 9513 3663 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 295DEG 11KT 3680 9534
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH