Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
637 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through at least
  Wednesday, mainly late afternoon and evenings. Strong to severe
  thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

- Widespread mid-90 to low/mid-100 degree temperatures are
  expected from Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Quasi-zonal flow is progged to continue tonight, then transition to
southwest flow aloft tomorrow. A mid to upper level ridge is
expected to transition east and center over the Mississippi River
Valley before building and maintaining southwest flow aloft for
the Panhandles over the next several days.

For tonight, thunderstorm chances return mainly after 7 PM into the
middle of the night. A shortwave is expected to spark storms off in
eastern NM and move east across the area. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty to the extent of the storms or how severe they will
become. The atmosphere is fairly worked over from last night and
surface based instability is either going to stay capped or get
capped quickly after dark. Many forecast soundings show dry air
moving in at the H85 to H65 layer with parcels lifting above that.
If that is the case there will be very little instability to work
with. However, a low level jet is expected to develop, but
depending on timing and moisture levels at that time, this could
help with lift before the dry air moves in. Regardless, some of
the CAMs do show thunderstorms moving east to west through the
evening and overnight. The HRRR solution focuses on the OK
Panhandle. While the NAMNEST focuses across the western half of
the combined Panhandles with dying showers as they reach the
eastern Panhandles. The RRFS has activity early on in the north,
then developing a line that moves west to east through the TX
Panhandle.

With bulk shear progged in the 30 to 40 kt range would not
completely rule out a supercell especially early on in the evening
and further north in the OK Panhandle. In order to get severe
hail tonight a supercell will likely be needed to form. However,
mostly expecting a damaging wind threat, especially with Bufkit
soundings showing onion shapes in the lower levels as rain is
starting to be produced.

Tomorrow, a surface trough is progged to set up over the area and
push higher Tds in the 60 off to the east. How far east remains yet
to be seen. However, should see Tds drop into the 40s and lower 50s
in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles. With the surface
trough breezy southwest winds are expected to overtake much of the
combined Panhandles. Along the eastern edge of the trough some
positive H7 theta-e advection may be present with higher Tds
leading to some convergence. Ahead of the trough the environment
may be capable of producing isolated supercells. Forecast
soundings depict inverted V with how hot temperatures are expected
to be (triple digits) along with lowering Tds. Bulk shear is
progged about 35 kts and would not rule out a supercell. However,
likely to see melting hail unless the storm can organize and
keep hail stones lofted for a time. A marginal risk has been given
to the southeastern TX Panhandle by SPC with the new Day 2
outlook. Further west where dewpoints will be lower and less H7
moisture is likely to be, forecast soundings for Amarillo show
quite a bit of a CAP. So the exact extent of the surface trough
will be key for where isolated thunderstorms may be capable of
forming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Sunday onward, southwest flow aloft is expected to be maintained
for the combined Panhandles with only a slight cool down into the
90s Tue through Thu. Should see influence of better surface
moisture in the south to southeast TX Panhandle depending on the
day. This will lead to PoPs in the 10 to 30 range, mainly across
the south-central to southeastern TX Panhandle. Possibly reaching
up into Beaver County, like for Tuesday, as well as the entire
southeastern half of the combined Panhandles.

Sunday has the potential to be warmer than Saturday. However, the
NBM has been bias correcting warmer and may not be picking up on
some cloud development from lingering atmospheric moisture leading
to the development of a Cu field. Also, some Pacific moisture may
be riding the southwest flow aloft into the area creating some
high clouds which could still help out with insolation. Therefore,
have lowered temps only slightly from what the NBM suggests for a
high on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the TAF
period. Could see some VCTS conditions between 00-06Z, but
confidence is not high enough to include in TAF at this time.
Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts, with
higher gusts at times.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
135 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-270645-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
135 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles late this
afternoon and through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly across the south
and eastern Panhandles. A few storms may become strong to severe
on Friday with damaging winds being the primary threat, though
cannot rule out large hail.

Hot temperatures are expected from Saturday through Thursday,
with Saturday through Monday being the hottest days.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     11 WSW Griggs           36.52N 102.28W
06/25/2026                   Cimarron           OK   Emergency Mngr

            Report of large trees uprooted 2 miles NW of
            Kerrick on the west side of Highway 287.
            Time estimated via radar.

&&

RLF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
537 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

TXZ009-010-262300-
Hemphill TX-Roberts TX-
537 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS AND
SOUTHWESTERN HEMPHILL COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lora, or 7 miles northeast of Miami, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Canadian and Lora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 10067 3589 10069 3596 10033 3571 10029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 255DEG 12KT 3579 10057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TLH