Hail in Oklahoma, June 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
615 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Possible thunderstorms this evening. Some of which will have the possibility
  of becoming severe.

- Extreme heat expected on Wednesday with CWA wide triple digits,
  and areas such as PDC reaching up to 110 degrees.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday. Chances for severe
  thunderstorms are still uncertain, but seem low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Persistent SW surface flow will increase high temperatures today
into the 90's across the combined Panhandles. This afternoon into
this evening, there is a low chance for thunderstorm development.
Convective initiation will likely be isolated in nature, as there is
a clear lack of forcing mechanisms other than reaching convective
temperatures. Effective shear values of 40+ kts and ML CAPE anywhere
from 1000-2000 J/kg (higher swath through the NE Panhandles).
Although these conditions look most likely to be met in the east, if
temperatures overachieve through the central (and less likely the
western), convective initiation could shift west accordingly.
Therefore, if a storm is able to initiate by reaching convective
temperatures, parameters are in place for them to become severe with
golf ball sized hail and up to 70 mph wind gusts. Steering vectors
in the far northeast CWA have shifted slightly more southeasterly,
which could push any storms that fire there out of our area rather
quickly.

On Wednesday, 850 mb temperatures range from 31-37C across the
Panhandles. Continued southwest flow overnight, and compressional
heating ahead of a cold frontal passage on Thursday morning all
point toward a very hot day. Triple digit temperatures are expected
CWA wide, with PDC currently forecasted to reach around 110F. Areas
within the Canadian river valley could also see upper 110's on
Wednesday. The signal for moisture to dampen high temperatures is
weak, but still possible. Especially in the SE TX Panhandle where
moisture is likely to hold on the longest.

A cold front extending from the great lakes through the Panhandles
will push from N to S overnight Wednesday into Thursday. This will
bring with it a N wind shift and breezy conditions. This will
shuffle in cooler temperatures for Thursday, with highs expected to
range from the low 80's to low 90's. Although forcing is still very
questionable along the remnants of what was the cold front the night
before, there is the chance for showers and possible thunderstorms
in the SE CWA on Thursday evening and into the overnight. Although
current guidance suggests ML CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg range
along our very southeastern extent (possibly shifting south of our
forecast area), bulk shear is displaced to the north. The
uncertainty with the displacement of severe parameters and very
questionable forcing leaves a bit of uncertainty for Thursday
evening/night.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

An upper-level trough begins to propagate toward the west coast of
the US as we enter the long term. Where past runs had this trough
much further south and ejecting over the Panhandles, it has trended
further north, keeping the Panhandles under a ridging pattern.

This will allow temperatures to build back Friday and Saturday,
before the ridge flattens out and allows for shortwave perturbations
to create thunderstorm chances to close out the weekend. Long range
models still favor a dry mid-level environment, however, this has
begun to favor the western CWA. Therefore, with shortwave troughs in
zonal flow being our forcing mechanism for surface responses, this
could set up a pattern where we see thunderstorm chances over the
eastern half of the CWA and dry conditions across the western half
on Sunday.

There is a signal for a weak boundary to push through Sunday with
that weather maker, likely cooling things off to begin next week.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF period.
Winds should stay out of the south to southwest 15 to 20 kts.
There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm in the combined
Panhandles through 03Z. However, confidence is really low and have
left out mentions of thunder at this time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ012>015-
     017>020.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
119 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-170630-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
119 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Possible thunderstorms this evening, some of which will have the
possibility to become severe with golf ball sized hail and 70 mph
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Extreme heat expected on Wednesday, with widespread 100 to 110
degree temperatures.

Thunderstorm chances return on Thursday, although severe chances
are low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
605 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

OKZ003-162330-
Beaver OK-
605 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEAVER COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Gate, or 9 miles southwest of Englewood, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gate and Knowles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 10000 3682 10019 3695 10020 3700 10020
      3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 282DEG 10KT 3692 10007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ward