Hail in Wisconsin, June 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected (60-90% chance) this afternoon. Most
  storms will produce small hail and gusty winds. An isolated
  storm could produce quarter sized hail.

- Another round of showers and storms are expected for Wednesday
  (80-100% chance). Potential for organized severe weather remains
  low, but a few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds may
  occur. Moderate to heavy rainfall will have a 60- 80% chance of
  exceeding 1 inch of rain.

- Below average temperatures in the 60s and 70s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A period of active weather is expected through the middle of the
week as a pair of shortwaves move through the area. Additional
rain chances then arrive towards the middle of the week as well.

Today...
A shortwave trough will cross the region today, bringing
a wide area of rain and a few storms into the area for the
afternoon and evening. Modest instability near the surface
combined with upper support from the shortwave will support
scattered convection, but with a lack of shear more organized
storms are unlikely. Therefore would expect most storms to be
short-lived and pulse-like. Although this setup will not favor
severe storms, given the relatively low freezing levels and decent
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, would expect some small hail
to be possible within any storms.

Wednesday...
Another, stronger shortwave drops towards the region on
Wednesday, bringing another round of showers and storms into the
region. The track of the accompanying surface low remains somewhat
variable, but most mid to long range guidance does keep it south
of the region. This would keep the warm front and more unstable
air and moisture south of the area, and greatly limit the overall
severe potential in northeastern Wisconsin. That said, some
overrunning moisture from the surface warm front combined with
surface heating and plenty of shear will still support
convection, and given the strong winds through the lower levels
and relatively cold airmass aloft, some isolated damaging winds
and hail will still be possible. Best potential for any stronger
storms will be from central to east-central Wisconsin. Heavy
rainfall will also be possible with any convection, with
probabilistic guidance continuing to paint out around 60-80%
chance for at least an inch of rain and some modest 10-25% chance
of two inches. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
stretching across central to east-central Wisconsin and southwards
as well.

Rest of the forecast period...Another brief round of scattered
(20-30% chance) showers will be possible on Thursday, driven
primarily by strong surface heating. Convective support will be
relatively minimal, so expect impacts from any scattered showers
to be minimal. Behind this

The only chance for more widespread active weather would be Saturday
night into Sunday, when another larger system enters the Midwest
to western Great Lakes. However, as of this forecast cycle this
system tracks south of the area, which would keep much of the
convective potential to our south and may limit how much rain we
ultimately see. Still, will be something to keep an eye on if you
have plans to travel towards Illinois over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms will prevail through
the afternoon as sfc low crosses WI. Greatest instability is over
east-central WI and this is where hail the size of quarters and
wind gusts over 30 kts could occur this afternoon. Mainly VFR cigs
are expected, though pockets of MVFR are possible, especially over
central WI. Showers end by this evening, with the next round of
showers and possible thunder arriving late Wednesday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-171745-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms are expected into early this evening. Most storms
will produce small hail and gusty winds. An isolated storm could
produce hail the size of quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few
stronger storms will be possible at times, mainly across central
to east-central Wisconsin. Hail and damaging winds are possible,
along with heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are asked to report any hail that occurs with thunderstorms
this afternoon.

LMZ521-522-541>543-171745-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into early this evening. Any
thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are chances of thunderstorms again on Wednesday and at times
over the weekend. Any thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners.

JLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1155 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ031-037-038-161730-
Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Waupaca WI-
1155 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAUPACA...
NORTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE AND EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM
CDT...

At 1155 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Clintonville, or 19 miles northeast of Waupaca,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
         travel.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clintonville around 1220 PM CDT. Embarrass and Navarino Wildlife
  Area around 1225 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include
Fitzgerald Corners, Sugar Bush, Bear Creek, Buckbee, Deer Creek
Wildlife Area, Adams Beach, Belle Plaine, Leeman and Wolf River
Bottoms Wildlife Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4468 8881 4482 8858 4459 8835 4445 8881
      4460 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 239DEG 13KT 4455 8882

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ022-040-161800-
Kewaunee WI-Door WI-
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DOOR AND NORTHERN
KEWAUNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1 PM CDT...

At 1225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Luxemburg, or 10 miles southeast of Bay Shore Park, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Luxemburg around 1230 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Lincoln,
Casco, Slovan, Thiry Daems, Euren, Rio Creek, Duvall, Gregorville,
Rankin and Rosiere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4468 8768 4483 8755 4468 8732 4466 8732
      4466 8733 4448 8758 4459 8776
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 220DEG 15KT 4458 8763

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
106 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ031-038-039-048>050-074-161900-
Southern Oconto County WI-Manitowoc WI-Outagamie WI-Calumet WI-
Shawano WI-Brown WI-Winnebago WI-
106 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CALUMET...NORTHEASTERN
WINNEBAGO...OUTAGAMIE...EASTERN SHAWANO...NORTHWESTERN MANITOWOC...
BROWN AND SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM CDT...

At 106 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles northwest of Pulaski to 9 miles
south of Oshkosh, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Small hail can be expected.

Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Oshkosh, Menasha, Kaukauna, Little Chute,
Kimberly, Oconto, Chilton, Pulaski, Brillion, Black Creek, Darboy,
High Cliff State Park, Northern Lake Winnebago, Bellevue Town,
Central Lake Winnebago, St Anna, Oneida and Neenah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4389 8870 4438 8862 4481 8841 4493 8778
      4485 8779 4471 8793 4467 8793 4464 8794
      4463 8794 4464 8793 4465 8791 4468 8781
      4447 8784 4389 8805 4389 8816 4394 8816
      4394 8840 4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 262DEG 16KT 4474 8832 4441 8848 4389 8856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
108 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WIZ022-040-161900-
Kewaunee WI-Door WI-
108 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DOOR AND NORTHERN
KEWAUNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 2 PM CDT...

At 108 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Algoma, or 8 miles north of Kewaunee, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kewaunee around 110 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Euren,
Alaska, Slovan, Casco, Lincoln, Rostok, Rio Creek, Rankin,
Gregorville and Kolberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4468 8759 4480 8747 4469 8732 4466 8732
      4466 8733 4454 8742 4451 8743 4444 8754
      4458 8769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 224DEG 11KT 4457 8754

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
118 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     Hail             2 SE Stephensville      44.34N 88.56W
06/16/2026  M0.50 Inch       Outagamie          WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
121 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     Hail             2 W Appleton            44.26N 88.45W
06/16/2026  E0.50 Inch       Outagamie          WI   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&