Hail in Michigan, June 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
243 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk for severe weather exists for this afternoon and
  evening with damaging winds and hail the main threats, but a
  tornado cannot be ruled out.

- A moderate risk for severe weather exists for Wednesday into
  Wednesday night. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes,
  and localized flooding are all potential threats.

- A moderate swim risk for southeast Lake Michigan beaches is
  present today and a high swim risk appears likely for
  Thursday.

- Dry weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Pretty active period over the next 36 hours or so in terms of
strong to severe thunderstorms. For today's portion of events
there will be two spurts. The first one will consist of showers
and embedded thunderstorms accompanying a shortwave with a weak
quasi-boundary which are currently pushing eastward across the
area. The main impact up to this point has been showers with a
few rumbles of thunder. The second part will be scattered
thunderstorms developing mainly in the wake of the first burst
with increase solar insolation behind this first band. This will
help to increase the SB CAPE values to around 1200 J/kg. The one
thing to monitor will be weak lake breeze boundaries and a
developing warm frontal boundary approaching from the west that
will help provide storms with increased shear and helicity.
Shear values around 25 to 45 knots and helicity values around
100 to 150 m2/s2 will be possible and sufficient to allow for
strong to severe storms to develop. Mid level lapse rate values
of 7 to 7.5 deg/km will be available. A limiting factor will be
the lack of a stronger forcing mechanism and will lead to a
more scattered nature in the storms. Gusty winds and hail will
be the main threats but there is still the possibility for a
tornado or two.

For tomorrow, warm air advection will continue and will see
increasing dew points from the 50s to the 60s. A warm frontal
boundary will be pushing north and eastward and putting us in
the warm sector. As this boundary pushes northward showers will
be on the increase with even a few embedded thunderstorms after
around 10 AM EDT. A few of the storms in this time period could
become strong to severe but should remain fairly tame. By the
afternoon, a cold front will be pushing eastward across IA/IL/WI
and approach our western parts of the CWA after 3-4 PM EDT and
will push eastward through the area by 2 AM EDT. This will be
the main event.

The ingredients look to be well in place and a very hearty mid-
level flow around 60 knots with a low level jet expecting to
strengthen into the evening. This really is a rare type set-up
especially for this time of the year with that much mid-level
flow in this synoptic pattern. SB CAPE values progged around
1500 J/kg with bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. Lapse rates of
8 deg/km and PWATs around 2 inches. The forecasted helicity
values will be pretty much off the charts at a 500-600 m2/s2.
Effective layer STP values of 10 to 11. Wow. All threats are on
the table and SPC currently has our area under a moderate to
slight risk for severe thunderstorms and a tornado threat around
15%. The main threats will be very strong gusty winds and large
hail of around 2 inches in diameter and of course tornados,
some becoming long- lived possible. Also, a threat of localized
flooding will be possible with the very efficient rainfall with
the elevated PWATs, even considering the fast moving nature of
the storms. So this is a potentially very dangerous situation
and one would be wise to use caution and stay very weather aware
tomorrow. Make sure to have multiple means of receiving
warnings and keep your cell phones charged up and a fresh set of
batteries in your weather radios in case of power outages.

In the wake of this cold front drier conditions will arrive
with Thursday through Saturday mainly precipitation free. Cooler
temperatures will also continue with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and storms are currently moving through the area with a
second stronger convective line associated with a cold front
expected after 21Z. Damaging wind and hail are the main
threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally,
southwest gusts to 25 to 30 kts will be possible through the day
today.

The storm threat should end for SBN around 00Z and then FWA by
around 02Z tonight. Stronger storms with heavy rain are expected
on Wednesday, beginning around 16Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Cobb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
422 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

INZ007-MIZ081-OHZ001-162045-
Steuben IN-Hillsdale MI-Williams OH-
422 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN STEUBEN...SOUTHWESTERN
HILLSDALE AND NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Angola, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Angola, Fremont, Columbia, Ray, Camden, Montgomery, Clear Lake, York,
Nettle Lake, Crooked Lake, Golden Lake, Lake Seneca, Berlien, and
Long Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 345 and 354.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 146 and 156.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northeastern Indiana...southeastern and southwestern Michigan...and
northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 8460 4157 8505 4166 8511 4176 8490
      4176 8483 4180 8482 4183 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 241DEG 35KT 4164 8502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Andersen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
437 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     Hail             1 WNW Silver Lake       41.63N 85.08W
06/16/2026  M0.50 Inch       Steuben            IN   Amateur Radio

            Reports of pea to half inch hail with this
            storm.

&&

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
447 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

INZ020-022-162115-
Cass IN-White IN-
447 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WHITE AND WEST CENTRAL
CASS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 447 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monticello, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Logansport, Monticello, Brookston, Reynolds, Chalmers, Burnettsville,
Clymers, Smithson, Headlee, Golden Hill, Indiana Beach, Norway,
Idaville, Sitka, Cedar Point, Bell Center, Buffalo, and Lake Cicott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8672 4091 8661 4071 8636 4069 8642
      4069 8652 4074 8653 4074 8675 4073 8676
      4072 8675 4071 8676 4069 8675 4068 8676
      4068 8674 4066 8678 4058 8677 4056 8684
      4076 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 234DEG 30KT 4072 8685

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Andersen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
514 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Hail             Monticello              40.75N 86.77W
06/16/2026  M0.88 Inch       White              IN   Public

            Reported by Trained Spotter.

&&

MCD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
517 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     Hail             Chalmers                40.66N 86.87W
06/16/2026  E0.50 Inch       White              IN   Public

            Varied from pea to just under half an inch
            sized hail.

&&

MCD