Drought in North Dakota, June 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal (level 1 out of 5) to Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5)
  of severe weather on Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  through the remainder of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain generally along and
ahead of frontal boundary that now stretches from near Stanley
south-southeastward towards Bismarck where instability corridor
of around 500 J/Kg is noted. Have had a few storms pulse up a
little but fall off rather quickly, and expect this trend to
continue as the boundary continues its eastward progression.
Have adjusted precipitation chances accordingly.

UPDATE
Issued at 956 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Modified POPs a bit based on latest radar and trends for this
late evening update. Instability axis and front continues to
slowly move east, with showers and thunderstorms over across
southwest and west central ND. The threat for stronger storms
has been on the decrease the past few hours with the loss of
daytime heating.

UPDATE
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue along an occluded front
arcing from south central North Dakota back northwest into
northwestern ND. Modified POPs to better capture latest radar
and trends/CAM output. Best instability and environment for
stronger storms (albeit pulse/short lived stronger updrafts)
resides from across portions of eastern South Dakota into parts
of south central North Dakota. A few robust storms across Emmons
County, though sub-severe and not expecting anything more this
evening. NST parameter increasing along the front, so something
we will watch going forward this evening. Push of westerly winds
in the wake of the occluded front as it pushes east tonight will
see convection ending west to east now through early Monday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Surface low will retreat into southern Canada tonight, pushing a
cold front across the state from west to east this evening
through tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected as this front moves through. SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk for severe weather in south central North Dakota.
This area has modest CAPE 1000 to 2000 J/Kg with ample heating
and increased dewpoints in the 60s today. Shear is lacking
today, with effective shear 25 to 30 knots. Shear vector is
angled to the front indicating multicluster storms the likely
storm mode today. Mid level lapse rates also look lacking today,
although steep lapse rates are found in the lower levels. Given
modest CAPE and some shear, pulse multi cell storms could bring
winds gusts up to 60 MPH winds and hail up to quarter size
through this evening. With steep low level lapse rates and
increased CAPE in these lower levels, perhaps a non-supercell
funnel cloud is possible through this evening. The lack of low
level shear should limit this threat. Otherwise look for a
breezy southeast wind to become a breezy westerly wind during
front passage. Precipitation will push eastward through the
night. Cooler temperatures will move in behind this front
tonight with lows in the 40s west to lower 50s east. A cooler
post frontal day is then expected for Monday. Look for breezy
westerly winds through the day, especially in the northwest.
Precipitation chances should be minimal with perhaps some light
chances in the north along the stalled front. Look for highs in
the 60s northwest to near 80 southeast. Upper upper low stalled
in Canada approaches western ND Monday night. This could return
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the west. Lows will
remain cool in the 40s to lower 50s.

Upper low remains in the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Warming
temperatures and increase moisture from a southerly flow will
bring modest instability to the area. Shear will also be
increased from the upper level low aloft. The result could be
one to two days of severe weather across the state. Tuesday
currently has a Marginal to Slight Risk across much of the
state. Strong wind and large hail are the likely main threats
for Tuesday. A shear vector angled to parallel to the frontal
boundary could limit the discrete supercell potential and the
stronger hazards associated with that. Although that could
change given this setup is still a few days out. The increased
amounts of instability with this system could also provide for a
prolonged severe weather threat, with some CAMS starting
convection late morning and continuing through the evening.
Increased Pwats over an inch are also forecast for Tuesday.
With near saturated soils this could lead to some localized
flooding especially in central and eastern portions. WPC
currently has a marginal risk for excessive rain. Similar
conditions may be found on Wednesday although severe weather and
heavy rain threat may shift eastward with the upper low
shifting eastward. Lows through mid week will remain in the
upper 40s to upper 50s, while high in the 70s to lower 80s can
be expected.

Zonal flow aloft could continue the summer like pattern for
late in the week as temperatures remain above normal. This
combined with weak disturbances in the westerly flow could bring
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. CSU-MLP showing
limited threat for severe weather, with perhaps some isolated
activity possible during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight over central North Dakota and the James River Valley,
possibly lingering into the early morning over north central
North Dakota. In addition, areas of MVFR ceilings with
localized IFR will be possible overnight over much of western
and central North Dakota, possibly lingering into the morning
over northwest North Dakota and over the Turtle Mountain region
southward into the James River Valley. Thereafter, VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...JJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

NDZ001>005-010-012-013-019-020-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-
051-055>060-062-020600-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-McHenry-Pierce-
Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-Northwest Ward-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-Western McLean-
Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-Eastern Sioux-
1252 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 /1152 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. The
threat for severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on
Tuesday over much of western and central North Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040>044-061-020600-
Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Western Sioux-
1252 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 /1152 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on
Tuesday over much of western and central North Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
725 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     Hail             Strasburg               46.13N 100.16W
05/31/2026  E0.70 Inch       Emmons             ND   Trained Spotter

            Pea to marble size hail reported.

&&

NJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
747 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

NDZ051-010130-
Dickey ND-
747 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DICKEY COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forbes, or 11 miles southwest of Ellendale, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Ellendale and Forbes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 9886 4617 9876 4607 9844 4594 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 210DEG 16KT 4592 9870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Telken

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1027 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     Rain             3 SSW Kintyre           46.50N 99.97W
05/31/2026  M2.52 Inch       Emmons             ND   Mesonet

            Peak 10 m wind gust of 54 mph was also
            recorded at this NDAWN mesonet station at
            652 pm CDT.

&&

Telken

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1028 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     Rain             8 SW Pick City          47.43N 101.57W
05/31/2026  M1.88 Inch       Mercer             ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN mesonet station.

&&

Telken

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1029 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Rain             11 NNW Zap              47.44N 101.97W
05/31/2026  M1.27 Inch       Mercer             ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN mesonet station.

&&

Telken

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1030 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     Rain             3 W Hazen               47.30N 101.68W
05/31/2026  M1.19 Inch       Mercer             ND   Mesonet

            NDAWN mesonet station.

&&

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