Drought in North Carolina, June 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
737 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the Small Craft Advisory out until 10pm tonight for
the northern coastal waters.

Tuesday: decreased temperatures and Pops, increased winds

Wednesday: increased temperatures and winds

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Drier and cooler conditions through tonight

2) Cold front approaches tomorrow with chances for showers and
thunderstorms area wide

3) Trending drier and cooler for Tuesday with the coastal low
staying farther offshore

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Today is a beautiful end to May with high
pressure overhead supporting few clouds and below climo
temperatures and dew points. Similarly to last night, winds are
expected to go light to calm. This will be a good radiational
cooling setup to support lows in the mid to upper-50s inland
and low-60s along the beaches. Ahead of a cold front that's
forecast to cross the area Monday night, chances for scattered
showers will start to increase from south to north tonight but
should remain at 25% or less until after sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will rebound tomorrow as the high
moves offshore and return flow brings increasing moisture ahead
of an approaching cold front. The front is forecast to cross the
area tomorrow night with shower and thunderstorm chances
peaking between the afternoon and evening (50-75%).

KEY MESSAGE 3...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
swing across the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, which will help keep a
developing coastal low farther offshore. This pattern continues
to trend the forecast towards an overall cooler and drier
solution. There's a slight chances that some wrap around showers
on the back side of the offshore low could advect onto land
through early afternoon, but the majority of the area looks to
remain precip free for the bulk of the day. More notable than
the precip will be the breezy northeasterly gradient winds,
which could gust to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph along the
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly clear skies this evening are expected to give way to
increasing clouds later tonight, especially after 06z. This will
occur as moisture advection increases in advance of an upper
level wave approaching from the Ohio Valley. Guidance suggests
CIGs should stay VFR throughout the night. A modest increase in
the potential for MVFR CIGs then comes on Monday along and ahead
of a cold front approaching from the north. Guidance differs on
the timing of when this front will move through ENC, but when
it does come through, there will be a risk of SCT SHRA and TSRA
with reduced VIS and gusty/erratic winds. Behind the front there
will be a northeasterly wind shift. Of note, where TSRA occur,
the forecast environment appears supportive of a risk of 30-45kt
downburst winds and small hail (<0.5" in diameter).

Outlook: Tuesday has trended drier but it will be quite breezy
throughout the day with NE gusts to 15-20 kt inland and 20-25
kt along the coast. Winds will remain out of the NE on Wednesday
and there's a slight chance of showers (highest along the
coast). Predominantly VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
The latest trends in buoy obs suggest seas will remain elevated
(5- 6ft) for longer than originally anticipated for the coastal
waters north of Oregon Inlet. Because of this, the Small Craft
Advisory for those waters has been extended out through 10pm
this evening. Elsewhere, no other headline changes were needed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Conditions will continue to improve, but
6+ ft seas are expected to linger across the central waters
until tomorrow evening.

Outlook: Improved conditions will be short-lived as the next
round of SCA winds and seas are expected to develop by early
Tuesday morning with a low developing offshore. A pinched
gradient will bring a surge of NEerly winds gusting to 25-30+ kt
Tuesday evening and seas building to 6-10 ft by Tuesday night.
There's potential for Gales south of Cape Hatteras and
especially in the 20-60 nm zone south of Cape Lookout. Winds
should drop below SCA criteria by Wednesday evening but elevated
seas could persist into early Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

&&

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...RM/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
805 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-020015-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
805 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-203>205-020015-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
805 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.