NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 6:10 AM EST, 6 hours 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 6:10 AM EST, 6 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
710 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Have added eastern Windham County Vermont and the Lake George
Saratoga Region into the Wind Advisory for this afternoon
through Tuesday morning. With a strong low level jet, cannot
rule out some gusty winds even in valley areas for late today
into tonight ahead of the strong cold front. Some gusty winds
are also possible in the westerly flow in the wake of the
boundary as well, which could result in some downed trees.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds over 45 mph are expected both ahead and behind a
strong cold front across much of eastern New York and western
New England for today through early Tuesday, which will result
in some downed trees and power lines.
2) Periods of rain will allow for the possibility of minor
flooding in urban and low lying areas, as well as along some
rivers, across western New England for today into tonight.
3) As colder air returns to the region, temperatures will return
back below freezing on Tuesday. Northern and high terrain areas
will see precipitation end as snow, especially in lake effect
areas, resulting in some slippery conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong storm system will be moving across the Great Lakes for
today and lifting into southern Canada for this evening into
tonight. A warm front will lift across the region this morning,
allowing a much more milder air mass into the region. The
storm's cold front will be approaching for this evening, and
looks to pass through during the overnight hours.
Ahead of this strong system, a powerful low level jet will be in
place. Models suggests southerly winds at 850 hpa will be around
50 kts for much of the day and may reach as high as 75 kts right
ahead of the storm's cold front. While there will plenty of
wind aloft, there is some question about exactly how much of
this will be able to mix down. There is a fairly stable layer in
place for early this morning and periods of rain are also
expected, which will keep it fairly stable. However, as the
warm front lifts northward, this low level inversion will be
weakening, although model soundings do suggest it never may
fully erode for much of the area. The best chance for gusty
winds may be across the highest terrain this afternoon into
tonight, as well as areas where downsloping occurs, such as
across the Taconics and western New England. Within breaks in
the rainfall across these areas, as well as across the mountain
peaks, some gusty south to southwest winds may reach 40-55 mph
today into tonight. This could result in some downed trees and
power lines, so a Wind Advisory is in effect for much of eastern
New York and western New England. Have left out the western
Adirondacks, Schoharie and Mohawk Valley, and mid Hudson Valley,
as these areas aren't as susceptible to the south/southwest
winds, but some of these areas could be needed to be added in
time, as the low level jet is rather impressive.
Just ahead of the storm's cold front, there will be a band of
heavier convective showers and potential thunderstorms. This
could also allow for some gusty winds to mix down, although the
instability looks very limited across our area, with a better
chance for this west/southwest of the area. 3km HRRR doesn't
show much SBCABE in our area when the front is getting closer,
as this is after sunset, so this looks to be a limited threat.
SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe storms (mainly southern
and western areas), although the better threat for convective
gusts look west of the area.
Gusty winds are also possible for late tonight into Tuesday
within the westerly flow behind the departing storm system.
During daytime mixing on Tuesday, some westerly gusts could
reach 40 to 50 mph, especially within the Capital Region,
Taconics and Berkshires. Best pressure gradient seems to be
early in the day and this starts to relax by later Tuesday, so
strong gusts this likely be in the morning to early afternoon
hours.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Periods of rain are expected for early this morning as the
surface warm front lifts northward. Based on CAMS, the heaviest
amounts look to be primarily across southeastern areas. Some
additional showers are expected this afternoon and again just
along/ahead of the cold front for this evening into tonight.
While most areas will see around an inch of precip in total, the
Catskills, Berkshires and NW CT may see 1 to 2.5 inches in
total. The ground is somewhat saturated due to recent rainfall
and snow melt, so there will be a lot of runoff. Some urban and
poor drainage flooding is possible, especially this evening
within the heavier bursts of rainfall. Also, some minor river
flooding will be possible, mainly for the Housatonic Basin,
based on the latest NERFC forecasts. MMEFS suggest the
probability of widespread river flooding is fairly low at this
time, so will continue to monitor, but won't expand the Flood
Watch outside of the Berkshires and NW CT at this time. With a
snowpack and some river ice still in place across the
Adirondacks, some isolated issues are possible there as well,
including for ice jams.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
There should be a rapid cooldown behind the front for late
tonight into Tuesday. After a mild day on Monday, temperatures
will be in the 20s and 30s for many areas on Tuesday, with sub-
freezing temps across northern, western and high terrain areas.
The rain may briefly end as wet snow or sleet as it ends
tonight, but only minor accumulation (under an inch) is
expected. The gusty winds should allow for most surfaces to dry
out before becoming icy, but cannot rule out some slick spots
overnight into Tuesday morning, especially across the
Adirondacks. Some additional light snow due to lake effect is
possible across the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with additional
accumulation of an inch or two in spots. Overall, the threat for
slippery conditions looks limited, but there will be a
noticeable cool down for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Scattered showers have started across the
region this morning, forcing IFR to MVFR conditions at all
terminals due to a combination of low ceiling heights and
reduced visibility. Such conditions will prevail throughout the
12z TAF period as rounds of showers impact the terminals through
the morning before stratiform rain moves in this afternoon.
Rainfall rates will become moderate to locally heavy at times
and embedded rumbles of thunder may occur later this afternoon.
PROB30 groups were added to the TAFs to highlight the likely
periods of heaviest rainfall, particularly within the pre-
frontal rain band this evening but thunder was kept out as
confidence continues to be low in its occurrence. Behind the
pre-frontal rain band and the ultimate driving cold front, rain
will likely change over to snow or sleet through the end of the
12z period, maintaining unideal flying conditions.
Winds remain a significant concern with the 12z forecast period.
A strong, southeasterly low level jet will drive a prolonged
period of low level wind shear that could have operational
impact on each TAF site. Surface winds will also prevail out of
the south to southeast for much of the period, increasing this
morning into this afternoon to 10 to 15 kt sustained with gusts
up to 20 kt. This afternoon, sustained winds increase to 15 to
25 kt with gusts reaching as high as 40 kt.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ001-013.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for NYZ054-061-066.
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for NYZ041>043-048>053-058-063-083-084.
MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MAZ001-025.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday
for VTZ013>015.
&&
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...12