On June 25, 2026, into the early morning of June 26, the NWS Buffalo region transitioned into an unsettled convective pattern as a warm front lifting across the lower Great Lakes was closely followed by a cold front tied to a mid-level trough. According to NWS Buffalo Area Forecast Discussions, early morning low stratus and patchy river valley fog particularly across the Western Southern Tier…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
On June 25, 2026, into the early morning of June 26, the NWS Buffalo region transitioned into an unsettled convective pattern as a warm front lifting across the lower Great Lakes was closely followed by a cold front tied to a mid-level trough. According to NWS Buffalo Area Forecast Discussions, early morning low stratus and patchy river valley fog particularly across the Western Southern Tier cleared through the day, allowing boundary layer destabilization with 500 to 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE (and localized pockets up to 1,500 J/kg). The Storm Prediction Center placed the region under a Marginal Risk for severe weather, emphasizing that 30 to 40 knots of 0 6 km bulk shear combined with steepening low-level lapse rates would support multi-cell storm clusters capable of localized damaging wind gusts. Simultaneously, atmospheric precipitable water levels surged toward 1.4 inches, prompting Weather Prediction Center highlights for localized heavy downpours capable of minor urban and small-stream flooding. As the cold front swept eastward Thursday evening and convective intensity waned, cool cyclonic flow over the warm lake waters initiated lake-enhanced rain showers and localized low clouds across Western New York into the early morning of June 26. One very strong thunderstorm developed over Lake Ontario in the early morning hours of June 26, and produced large hail over the eastern shore of Lake Ontario.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 26, 12:51 AM EST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 151 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added some fog to the forecast across the Southern Tier tonight, as well as across the valleys of the Southern Tier and Black River Saturday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Patchy fog and low clouds early this morning. 2) Trending warmer this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog and low clouds overnight through early this morning. The last of the showers and thunderstorms ahead of an incoming cold front early this morning, will continue to progress east towards the eastern Lake Ontario region. In its wake, lingering moisture is supporting low stratus and fog to develop across western New York. The low stratus and fog wil continue to develop across the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier well into the morning hours before dissipating within a few hours past sunrise today. KEY MESSAGE 2...Trending warmer this weekend and into next week. Mid to upper level ridge will build across the Great Lakes this weekend before shifting east into the Northeastern portions of the CONUS throughout the course of next week. Temperatures will gradually increase by the end of the weekend and into early next week. Heat and humidity will then increase further throughout the middle and end of next week, which may result in the potential for heat-related headlines as the risk for dangerous heat indices increase. However, due to the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday there may be some short- term relief from the heat. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few showers and thunderstorms are currently passing east across areas south of Lake Ontario near Rochester as of 06Z. These showers will continue to progress eastward throughout the rest of the early morning hours towards dawn. Meanwhile, lingering moisture across WNY has supported low stratus and fog to develop across the Niagara Frontier and Southern Tier, resulting in a conglomeration of flight conditions ranging from VFR (outside of the low stratus/foggy areas) to MVFR/IFR within the low stratus and foggy areas including KIAG, KBUF and KJHW. The fog and low stratus will dissipate by mid to late morning, returning to VFR flight conditions for the afternoon. Much of the day today will be dry, with limited areas for showers and thunderstorms across the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks (mainly east and north of KART). A few showers may pass across the Southern Tier this evening, bringing some brief/local restrictions. Lingering moisture will again support patchy fog and local IFR tonight into early Saturday morning Outlook... Saturday...VFR. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Weak pressure gradient in place as surface high pressure builds into and across the region this weekend and into next week, resulting in winds and waves to remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 152 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-270600- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 152 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-270600- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 152 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 455 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 NYZ001-261300- Niagara- Including the city of Niagara Falls 455 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 ...LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NIAGARA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING... Local surface observations and webcams show areas of fog across the northwestern portions of Niagara County this morning. Some of this fog may be locally dense, with visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at times. Fog is expected to dissipate by 9 AM this morning. If driving this morning, allow extra time to reach your destination and be prepared for rapid changes to visibility. EAJ
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 36 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:52 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Several social media reports of large hail up to 1 inch in diameter relayed by a trained spotter. Location approximate, time based on radar.
Social media reports. Hail damage to several vehicles and crop damage to a corn field.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1353279, 1353280.