Damaging Wind in New York, April 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
229 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased coverage of fog and lower ceilings tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
early this evening, with damaging winds as the main hazard.

2) Another round of widespread showers expected with a few possible
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

3) The very warm pattern continues through Saturday before much
colder air arrives by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early this evening, with damaging winds as the main
hazard.

Low pressure near the Ontario-Quebec border early this afternoon
will slide east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by this evening...then
on to the Canadian Maritimes tonight. In the process...this feature
will finally sweep the frontal boundary that has been in our
vicinity the past few days southeastward across our area as a cold
front through early this evening...with the boundary then departing
to our southeast tonight and Friday...with the latter finally
allowing for a bit of a break in the active weather for later
tonight and Friday.

Out ahead of the front...some partial sunshine/diurnal warming of
our airmass coupled with sfc dewpoints in the vicinity of 60 has
already allowed for the development of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across portions of western/central NY away from the influence of the
lakes...with the greatest instability in our area found
approximately from about the interior of the Southern Tier/Genesee
Valley eastward across the Finger Lakes. Within this latter
region...continued destabilization over the next couple hours should
allow for pockets of moderate instability to develop by mid to late
this afternoon...with weaker/more modest instability expected
further back across extreme far WNY...lowest within the area
currently shadowed by Lake Erie.

Within this environment...a few spotty showers have already managed
to form along lake breeze boundaries across WNY and Lake Ontario...
and more scattered showers and storms should continue to develop
along these features over the next couple hours with further airmass
destabilization. As the parent shortwave trough accompanying the
surface low begins to increasingly impinge upon the region along
with its associated cold front during the mid to late afternoon
hours...showers and thunderstorms will tend to become more numerous/
widespread and make their way eastward...before diminishing from
west to east early this evening following the cold frontal passage.

With a fast/strong flow in place aloft along with 0-6 km bulk shear
values in the vicinity of 45-55 knots...the environment should be
favorable for the development of strong to severe multicells/linear
segments and perhaps also a few supercells. Strong/damaging winds
will continue to be the primary threat with these...however there is
also a low risk for large hail/an isolated tornado or two within any
stronger supercellular convection that can develop. This latter risk
will be greatest from portions of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes
eastward into central NY...where instability should be greatest and
the convection may have an opportunity to tap into enhanced low
level shear along a potential lake breeze boundary/convergence zone.

While we do have a very moist airmass in place for this time of year
(PWATs of around 1.50" - supportive of heavy downpours) and ground
conditions are also rather moist...the fast movement of the
convection should generally help to limit hydro concerns...unless
repeated training of cells occurs over the same areas...in which
case shorter-fused flood/flash flood warnings may become necessary.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of widespread showers expected with a
few possible thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

After a relative break in the active weather later tonight through
Friday night...things will turn much more active again on Saturday
as a deepening upper level trough overspreads the Great Lakes...and
its associated surface low makes its way to the vicinity of James
Bay. This next system will sweep its trailing strong cold front
across our region Saturday afternoon and evening...with daytime
heating of the warm and moist airmass out ahead of the front
supporting the development of another round of widespread showers
and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms...with the potential
for the latter greatest across western New York where instability
looks to be highest. Should these materialize...the strong/fast deep-
layer flow out ahead of the front may support a linear convective
mode with a few localized strong wind gusts. With daytime
heating/mixing...the stronger flow aloft may also allow for a period
of rather breezy to downright windy conditions prior to the frontal
passage.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The very warm pattern continues through Saturday
before much colder air arrives by early next week.

While temps will cool off a few degrees for Friday in the wake of
the cold front, above average temperatures will easily persist
through Saturday.

The more substantial pattern change will come behind the cold front
described in Key Message (2) as deep upper level troughing crosses
the Northeast. 850mb temps of +12C to +15C Saturday afternoon will
tumble to -4C to -6C by Sunday morning, before bottoming out around
-12C Monday morning. This will result in high temperatures averaging
10-15 degrees (F) below normal Sunday through Monday. Overnight lows
will be similarly cold, with areawide temps dipping below freezing
and potentially even into the teens across the higher terrain areas,
depending on the amount of clearing that takes place.

This colder airmass moving through the region combined with some
minor lake enhancement and upsloping will even support a few snow
showers or flurries at times later Sunday/Sunday night/into
Monday...though the relatively dry airmass and short temporal window
(coupled with the now-much warmer ground conditions) should result
in these having little if any accumulation/impact.

Ridging all levels cresting across/east of the area should then
cause a southerly flow to develop by Tuesday, thereby allowing
temperatures to recover back to near climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure near the Ontario-Quebec border will move east to the
Saint Lawrence Valley by this evening...then on into the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. In the process...this feature will push its
trailing cold front southeastward across the region this afternoon
and early this evening...with the front and lake breeze boundaries
generating numerous to widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the process. In addition to heavy downpours and
corresponding reductions to IFR/MVFR...some of the storms will also
be capable of strong wind gusts to/over 50 knots and hail...
particularly from the Genesee Valley eastward across the Finger
Lakes into central New York.

Following the passage of the cold front this evening...some
scattered showers will probably linger across the region for a good
portion of the night. Of more concern to aviation interests...
copious amounts of low level moisture should also linger across the
region right through tonight. Coupled with weak/light winds...this
will allow for the development of widespread LIFR/IFR conditions in
low stratus and/or fog. Any lingering scattered showers will then
dissipate Friday morning...with flight conditions gradually
improving back to VFR through the course of the day as high pressure
and drier air builds across our region.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...VFR in the morning...then deterioration to IFR/MVFR with
showers and scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon
and evening. Also breezy to windy.

Sunday/Sunday night...A mix of MVFR/IFR with upslope/lake effect
rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers.

Monday...Improvement to VFR/MVFR with leftover scattered lake
effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday,,,Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
An approaching cold front will generate numerous to widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms as it crosses the region this
afternoon and early this evening...a few of which may produce strong
surface wind gusts and locally higher waves. Otherwise the warmer
airmass and relatively cold lake temperatures will result in limited
mixing of synoptic winds...thereby precluding any real risk of
advisory-level conditions.

Relatively light winds and minimal wave action are then expected
later tonight and Friday as high pressure builds across the Lower
Great Lakes...before winds increase out of the south/southwest
Saturday/Saturday night in association with the approach/passage of
a strong cold front. This may result in the next round of SCA
conditions with the frontal passage also accompanied by another
round of showers and storms...some of which could produce locally
stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-171900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the region this
afternoon and early this evening. Some of the storms may become
severe, with the primary severe weather risk coming in the form of
damaging wind gusts. This being said...large hail and an isolated
tornado or two are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-171900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will cross the region this
afternoon and early this evening. Some of the storms may become
severe, with the primary severe weather risk coming in the form of
damaging wind gusts. This being said...large hail and an isolated
tornado or two are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     Tornado          3 SSW Lime Lake-Machias 42.39N 78.51W
04/15/2026                   Cattaraugus        NY   NWS Storm Survey

            Several trees uprooted in multiple
            directions shortly after the intersection of
            Tug Hill Road and Gulf Hill Road. Primary
            residence had a window blown in the upper
            most story of the house, with a secondary
            residence loosing a few roof shingles.

&&

EAJ