What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 12:39 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
- A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over the far eastern NM this afternoon and evening.
- A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail also exists late Friday across far east central and northeast NM.
- After a quieter weekend, chances for thunderstorms will trend back up early next week, peaking on Tuesday across eastern NM where severe storms can not be ruled out.
Area forecast discussion, May 21, 12:39 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
139 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
- A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail exists over the
far eastern NM this afternoon and evening.
- A marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms producing
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and large hail also exists late
Friday across far east central and northeast NM.
- After a quieter weekend, chances for thunderstorms will trend
back up early next week, peaking on Tuesday across eastern NM
where severe storms can not be ruled out.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak trough aloft
hanging back over AZ while an upper low drops southeast into the
central Rockies and steers drier westerlies across southern CO and
northern NM. This action is increasing moisture convergence in
the lower boundary layer along/east of the central mountain
chain, where convective initiation is underway and a storm has
already gone severe several miles southwest of Maxwell. The severe
thunderstorm threat will increase closer to the TX/OK borders
through the early evening hours, with the highest severe
probabilities across Union Co where muCAPE is forecast to approach
2,500J/kg, LIs of -6C and 0-6km bulk shear of 35-40kts. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued for Union and Colfax
Counties through the early evening hours. Convection is forecast
to follow a fairly normal diurnal downtrend this evening with the
loss of daytime heating and/or move east into the OK/TX
Panhandles.
The upper low will eject east out of the central Rockies Friday
morning and send a cold front southwest through northeast and
east central NM, pulling up stationary along the east slopes of
the Sangre De Cristos south through the Central Highlands. The
front will act as a focus for convective initiation late
afternoon, with storms then moving east across east central and
northeast NM over the shallow frontal layer through the evening
hours. The SPC has portions of the northeast and east central
plains in a marginal risk area on the day 2 convective outlook,
which will primarily be a hail threat. Elsewhere south and west
of the front, dry and warm condition will prevail with
temperatures near average. The front will continue backing west
through the central mountains late Friday night, creating a gusty
east canyon/gap wind into the RGV between Santa Fe, Albuquerque
and Los Lunas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
Pressure heights will be on the uptrend through the weekend, with
a 585dam 500mb high directly overhead by Sunday afternoon. A
relatively moisture rich lower boundary layer will persist
along/east of the central mountain chain Saturday, fueling another
round of daytime heating triggered convection. Lower severe
probabilities exist Saturday, except for across far northeast NM
where 0-6km bulk shear will be more favorable. Warmer conditions
are forecast Sunday under the influence of the upper high, with
temperatures reaching above average most areas. Moisture advection
will ramp up Monday in advance of a Pacific low approaching from
over SoCal. The medium range model solutions are showing some
run-to-run consistency in depicting a wet scenario on Monday
across western NM due to forcing from the rapidly approaching
Pacific low, so forecast confidence is increasing that much-needed
rainfall is on the way for parched western areas. The Pacific low
is modeled to fill, open up and lift northeast across NM on
Tuesday, bringing continued chances for showers and storms that
will be highest across eastern NM where a few severe storms can't
be ruled-out. Temperatures will take a dive on Tuesday and be
below average areawide. Drier westerlies will move in behind the
departing Pacific low on Wednesday, but storms may persist across
northern NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at TAF sites,
with short-lived MVFR conditions in iso/sct storms across eastern
NM this afternoon and early evening. Areas of MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions will likely develop near the TX border overnight,
but are forecast to remain east of KROW. Otherwise, gusty south-
southwest winds will prevail this afternoon and early evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the middle of next week, but elevated to near-critical conditions
prevail this afternoon across central and western NM. Warm and dry
conditions will persist across western NM through the weekend and
any storms that do develop will be on the drier side, favoring
strong/erratic wind gusts and potential for lightning ignitions.
Chances for wetting storms exist through Saturday across eastern
NM, where humidity will be higher and temperatures will be cooler.
A Pacific low will bring higher humidity and chances for wetting
storms to much of the area Mon/Tue, although eastern NM is favored
for soaking rains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 43 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 35 76 39 78 / 0 0 5 5
Cuba............................ 41 76 43 77 / 0 0 0 5
Gallup.......................... 36 78 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 40 75 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 39 79 41 80 / 0 0 0 5
Quemado......................... 42 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 49 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 5
Datil........................... 44 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 5
Reserve......................... 39 81 40 83 / 0 0 0 5
Glenwood........................ 42 84 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 35 70 37 72 / 0 5 5 10
Los Alamos...................... 49 76 52 74 / 0 0 5 30
Pecos........................... 41 75 44 75 / 0 5 10 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 40 71 42 72 / 0 10 20 20
Red River....................... 33 61 36 62 / 0 10 20 30
Angel Fire...................... 29 67 32 67 / 0 20 40 20
Taos............................ 38 76 42 76 / 0 5 10 10
Mora............................ 40 71 42 71 / 0 30 30 30
Espanola........................ 45 82 50 80 / 0 0 10 20
Santa Fe........................ 46 77 49 75 / 0 0 5 20
Santa Fe Airport................ 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 5 10
Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 5
Albuquerque Heights............. 52 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 5
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 5
Belen........................... 48 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 50 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 5
Bosque Farms.................... 47 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 49 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 5
Los Lunas....................... 47 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 51 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 5
Rio Rancho...................... 51 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 5
Socorro......................... 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 10
Tijeras......................... 48 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
Edgewood........................ 45 80 48 79 / 0 0 5 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 81 41 80 / 0 0 5 10
Clines Corners.................. 45 76 46 74 / 0 5 10 20
Mountainair..................... 46 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 5
Gran Quivira.................... 46 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 5
Carrizozo....................... 54 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 5
Ruidoso......................... 52 73 50 73 / 0 5 0 10
Capulin......................... 40 65 40 69 / 10 40 60 60
Raton........................... 40 70 42 73 / 0 40 60 40
Springer........................ 40 73 43 75 / 5 40 50 30
Las Vegas....................... 42 73 43 72 / 0 40 30 40
Clayton......................... 47 69 46 73 / 20 10 40 50
Roy............................. 45 71 45 72 / 20 20 40 20
Conchas......................... 49 77 50 81 / 10 20 40 20
Santa Rosa...................... 48 79 49 80 / 5 20 20 20
Tucumcari....................... 51 78 51 82 / 20 20 50 10
Clovis.......................... 51 81 51 81 / 20 20 20 20
Portales........................ 51 82 51 83 / 20 10 10 20
Fort Sumner..................... 50 85 51 83 / 10 10 10 10
Roswell......................... 54 91 55 88 / 10 0 0 10
Picacho......................... 52 84 51 81 / 0 5 0 20
Elk............................. 50 81 49 79 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 21, 11:17 AM MST, 3 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1217 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
NMZ228-211900-
Far Northeast Highlands NM-
1217 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY
UNTIL 1 PM MDT...
At 1217 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Cimarron, or 12 miles northwest of Springer, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Maxwell.
This includes the following highways...
Highway 64 near Mile Marker 331...and between Mile Markers 333 and
334. Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 416 and 433.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3636 10475 3640 10484 3645 10491 3670 10455
3646 10439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 236DEG 15KT 3646 10476
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, May 21, 12:31 PM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
131 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
NMZ228-212000-
Far Northeast Highlands NM-
131 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL 2 PM
MDT...
At 131 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maxwell, or 11 miles north of Springer, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Maxwell.
This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 421 and 435.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.
&&
LAT...LON 3644 10466 3657 10470 3668 10447 3666 10446
3666 10445 3665 10442 3665 10440 3658 10436
3656 10438 3654 10436 3653 10434 3651 10434
3650 10432 3649 10432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 243DEG 9KT 3653 10454
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, May 21, 1:19 PM MST, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
219 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
NMZ228-231-212045-
Harding County NM-Far Northeast Highlands NM-
219 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MORA...NORTHWESTERN
HARDING AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...
At 219 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Springer, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
travel.
Locations impacted include...
Mainly rural areas of Northeastern Mora, Northwestern Harding and
South Central Colfax Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3606 10449 3617 10460 3631 10442 3625 10417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 224DEG 20KT 3617 10447
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, May 21, 2:11 PM MST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
311 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
NMZ236-212145-
Roosevelt County NM-
311 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM MDT...
At 311 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 5 miles west of Lingo to near Milnesand,
moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
travel.
Locations impacted include...
Dora, Causey, Pep, Milnesand and Lingo.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3357 10347 3392 10349 3394 10305 3357 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 220DEG 12KT 3378 10320 3369 10327 3361 10330
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, May 21, 2:38 PM MST, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
338 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
NMZ228-230-231-212200-
Harding County NM-Union County NM-Far Northeast Highlands NM-
338 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT UNION...NORTHEASTERN
HARDING AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM MDT...
At 338 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 21 miles north of Seneca to 15 miles
north of Bueyeros, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds on the leading edge of these thunderstorms could
knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Potential for minor damage to outdoor objects.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Grenville, Mount Dora, Clayton Lake State Park, Seneca,
Gladstone, Bueyeros, Moses and Yates.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 400 and 429.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3625 10415 3658 10368 3700 10358 3700 10300
3653 10300 3650 10302 3650 10304 3645 10304
3637 10308 3595 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 250DEG 27KT 3693 10307 3648 10334 3619 10375
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, May 21, 2:59 PM MST, 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
359 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
NMZ230-231-212245-
Harding County NM-Union County NM-
359 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UNION AND
NORTHEASTERN HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...
At 359 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 24 miles north of Seneca to 14 miles
southeast of Gladstone, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds on the leading edge of these strong
thunderstorms could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Mount Dora, Clayton Lake State Park, Seneca, Sedan,
Gladstone, Moses and Yates.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 411 and 429.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3622 10401 3631 10401 3655 10348 3700 10318
3700 10300 3650 10300 3650 10304 3616 10304
3598 10383 3622 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 265DEG 17KT 3696 10299 3644 10328 3612 10385
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
MA