Hail in Colorado, May 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
138 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms are possible across eastern Colorado late
  this afternoon and evening, mainly between 5-10 pm MDT. Large
  hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible.

- There is a 30% chance that several rounds of thunderstorms
  may lead to localized flooding in low lying areas and small
  streams tonight and early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Today, we have an approaching 500 mb low moving into the region
from the northwest. Down at 850 mb, a low is strengthening as
it come out of the Northern Rockies and a high over the mid-
Mississippi River Valley work together to push ample moisture
into the area. This is keeping us mostly cloudy to overcast all
day, keeping temperatures capped out in the upper 50s and 60s.
As the 500 mb low moves closer, additional vorticity will cause
showers throughout the day, ahead of the main round of storms.
There is a 25% chance that these showers throughout the day
weaken the environment and storms this evening are not severe.
The main round of storms looks to start forming near the
western CWA border around 22-01Z in two segments. The southern
segment looks to largely remain south of the CWA, but may
briefly be a severe threat in Cheyenne county Colorado. The
northern segment looks to form as isolated cells before morphing
into more of a QLCS or cluster threat. When the storms are
isolated, this will present the greatest potential for hail up
to 2.5 inches and a strong tornado. However, there only looks to
be 1-2 hours where isolated cells will dominate before they
become a cluster or line. If the mode is more of a cluster, hail
up around 1.5 inches and 60-70 MPH winds could become the main
threat. If the storms become a QLCS, the threat for 70-80 MPH
winds and brief spin-up tornadoes increase, but the hail threat
decreases. The strongest storms look to be west of KS 27 and
gradually weaken to the east, but there is a severe threat
across the CWA with these storms. Peak intensity looks to occur
between 0-6Z As mentioned before, the storms will persist
overnight, weakening into widespread showers, lasting to around
sunrise. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the 40s tonight,
but may be closer to 50 depending on how high dewpoints remain.
We are expecting the cold front associated with these lows to
push in from the northwest around 8-10Z. Behind the cold front,
expect winds to be from the northwest at 15 kts gusting to
around 25-30 kts. Tomorrow, any lingering precipitation will be
exiting by 15Z and winds throughout the morning will gradually
be weakening. By the mid afternoon, a weak 850 mb high will be
moving over the CWA, and the winds will slowing become more
northerly, then northeasterly. Temperatures are forecast to warm
into the 60s across the CWA. The high looks to remain over the
CWA tomorrow night, staving off the bulk of any moisture return
for most of the night. Temperatures under the mostly clear
skies will drop to around 40, but if clouds do start moving in,
temperatures may remain in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

***Synopsis***

Upper-level troughing looks to be moving through the forecast
region Saturday. A surface low to the south of the forecast area
is favored to establish a southerly return flow. This return
feature may last through the end of the forecast period, as GEFS
and EC ensemble guidance favor ridging overhead with troughing
to the west beginning Sunday, and potentially lasting through
the end of the forecast period. There are indications that
southwesterly flow establishes itself overhead by Tuesday
morning, which could allow some shortwave systems to traverse
the area. GEFS guidance is more in favor with this solution than
the EC, as the GEFS pushes the trough across the Western United
States moves eastward faster. This may allow a cold front to
cross the forecast region as early as Wednesday.

***Discussion***

The southerly return flow appears to favor warm and moist
conditions throughout the long term period. Highs look to center
themselves in the 70s and 80s. LREF guidance also suggests that
dew points are favored in the 40s and 50s. Troughing setting up
to the west may support multiple days of precipitation to occur,
especially if southwesterly upper-level flow can eject shortwave
systems into the area. Ensemble guidance is consistent on
Sunday-Thursday having potential for over 1000 J/kg of CAPE (a
measure of atmospheric instability). This could support
thunderstorm development each day. However, LREF mean 500-mb
winds are not expected to get much higher than 25 kts, which
would indicate a marginal severe potential at best for these
thunderstorms. NBM guidance suggests that the greatest
opportunity for precipitation to occur is on Wednesday and
Thursday, where there are wide zones of 30-45% chances of
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation across the area. This
may be associated with a faster progression of the trough
eastward toward the forecast region, enhancing how many
thunderstorms are able to develop. Even so, the amount of
precipitation any one location receives will be dependent on
where storms track. Light showers to weak thunderstorms appear
to be the most likely scenario at this time for the long term.
One final point to add is that critical fire weather appears to
be a minimal threat. The one exception to this may be on
Tuesday, not because relative humidity values are low, but
because wind gusts may reach the 40-45 mph range. If this
occurs, existing fires may be capable of spreading rapidly.
Otherwise, hazards look to be kept to a minimum next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Conditions at KGLD and KMCK are forecast to bounce between IFR
and MVFR all day as stratus and showers move through the region.
Late this afternoon and through the night, heavier showers and
storms are expected to move through. Minimums may be met in the
9-14Z time frame, but there’s no strong sign that conditions
will be that bad.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...DDC
LONG TERM...DDC
AVIATION...DDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
339 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-222145-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Sherman-
Thomas-Sheridan-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
339 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026 /439 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for eastern Colorado
until 10 PM MT tonight, with the severe threat gradually decreasing
east of the state line. 70 MPH winds, hail up to 1.75 inches, and a
couple of tornadoes are possible with these storms. There is also a
localized flooding threat from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

KSZ004-016-222145-
Norton-Graham-
439 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
523 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

COZ092-212345-
Cheyenne County CO-
523 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Karval, or 42 miles south of Flagler, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado, including the following
locations... Wild Horse and Aroya.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3869 10316 3886 10316 3895 10301
      3872 10284 3861 10313 3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 239DEG 36KT 3869 10324

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM