Pulses in the southwesterly flow aloft, coupled with the remnants of the stalled boundary from the 19th and 20th, allowed for more thunderstorms to develop on the 21st. One storm managed to produce quarter-sized hail in Lea county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Pulses in the southwesterly flow aloft, coupled with the remnants of the stalled boundary from the 19th and 20th, allowed for more thunderstorms to develop on the 21st. One storm managed to produce quarter-sized hail in Lea county. High based showers in far west Texas also produced a couple of severe downbursts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 11:45 AM CST, 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1245 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 - More showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening. A storm or two may become strong across far southeast New Mexico, northern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos. Localized flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail will be the main threats. - Daily afternoon/evening storm chances through next week, with locally heavy rainfall possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Current satellite and latest RAP analysis shows an embedded shortwave trough moving across portions of southwest Texas. This has allowed for a few showers and storms to linger throughout the evening into overnight hours. Expect some early morning showers and a couple rumbles of thunder as they push east and northeast across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. For today, the dryline will set up in far southeast New Mexico extending into the Big Bend region. Coincidentally, a stalled boundary currently in the southern half of the region will lift north of the area by the late morning hours. Guidance has more shortwave impulses moving over the region once again. Given this setup, additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the afternoon and progress eastward through the evening hours. The highest chance (20- 40%) for showers and storms will be over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during this timeframe. A storm or two may become strong across far southeast New Mexico, the northern Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos as modest mid-level lapse rates and instability brings a damaging wind and large hail threat. The main threat to consider will be flash flooding due to saturated soils from yesterday's rainfall along with high Precipitable Water (PWAT) values, signaling heavy rainfall to occur. Temperatures are anticipated to be much warmer than yesterday climbing into the mid 70s and 80s. Tonight, a similar pattern is in store as embedded shortwaves move across the region which may keep a couple of lingering showers and storms around in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Lows are forecast to range from the 50s to low 60s. Friday, the dryline is expected to be positioned across eastern portions of the area. This will keep storm activity isolated in coverage and confined over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin Friday afternoon. A similar pattern looks to stick around heading into the weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026 The long term features weak mid to upper ridging transitioning to mid-level closed troughing into much of next week that maintains moderate near normal temperatures for mid to late May. The weakness in ridging this weekend and cooler air aloft accompanying the closed low next week will allow for passing mid to upper air disturbances focusing lift and moisture in alignment with near surface boundaries to produce 20% to 45% rain chances across parts of the area each afternoon/evening. Highs will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s F, upper 90s F Rio Grande basins, and triple digits for the Big Bend, while lows largely settle into the 50s higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, and 60s F elsewhere apart from upper 60s to lower 70s F along the Rio Grande. The dryline will oscillate over western parts of the area, but generally we can expect humid air over the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, moderately dry air over much of the SE NM plains, rest of the Permian Basin, into the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau into the Rio Grande, with driest (lowest dew point temperatures) over western higher terrain of W TX and SE NM. Most regions can also expect to see light, southeasterly humid upslope flow. There is the potential for fire starts from lightning over the western higher terrain, but no significant severe convective weather is expected at this time. Daily afternoon/evening showers/storms may allow regions east of the western higher terrain to pick up at least a few tenths of an inch, and up to an 1" or more in heavier showers/storms over the course of next week (55% to 75% chance). However, due to spotty nature of diurnal convection forced mainly by subtle disturbances aloft interacting with mesoscale boundaries and topography at the surface, rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026 Scattered TS is currently moving east of the terminals though more is expected to develop later this afternoon. Only enough confidence for PROB30 at MAF/FST though TS is also possible at INK and PEQ. Expect mostly SHRA/TS with LTG and gusty and erratic winds the main threats. IFR/MVFR conditions have either become VFR or will become VFR very shortly and should remain VFR outside of any showers. Light mist lowering VIS to 3-5SM is possible near 12Z but not included in the forecast due to low confidence. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 79 60 91 63 / 30 30 10 20 Carlsbad 89 59 93 60 / 20 0 0 0 Dryden 83 63 90 66 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Stockton 86 62 92 64 / 40 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 80 58 82 60 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 82 55 91 57 / 30 20 0 0 Marfa 81 50 84 53 / 20 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 81 61 91 64 / 30 20 10 10 Odessa 82 61 91 64 / 30 20 0 10 Wink 86 59 93 62 / 20 20 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...10
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0411 PM Hail 7 NW Altuda 30.38N 103.53W
05/20/2026 M1.00 Inch Brewster TX Broadcast Media
Quarter sized hail was reported by the
Broadcast Media and by a Meteorologist from
Canada at and around the US 67 and US 90
Interchange.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
TXZ051-052-062-063-211845-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Glasscock TX-Howard TX-
1259 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK...
NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN AND SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...
At 1258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanton, or 8 miles north of Greenwood, moving southeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Big Spring, Stanton, Lomax, Courtney, Big Spring McMahon-Wrinkle
Airpark, Stanton Municipal Aiport, and Elbow.
This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 148 and 182.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3213 10197 3244 10176 3230 10137 3190 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 303DEG 11KT 3214 10189
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
95The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 42 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:23 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported penny sized hail and heavy rain along I-20 near Stanton. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated.
The West Texas Mesonet station 156 Marfa 13SE measured a 61 mph wind gust, along with a couple of minutes of high sustained winds associated with a downburst from a decaying thunderstorm/high-based shower.
Mesonet station UR144 14.1 SW Toyah measured a 59 mph wind gust associated with a convective downburst from a high-based shower. The total time of occurrence is partially estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327298, 1327301, 1327304.