Drought in New Mexico, March 24 to 31, 2026

Name: Drought in New Mexico, March 24 to 31, 2026
Start: 2026-03-24T12:00
End: 2026-03-31T23:59
Location: New Mexico

March 24 to 31, 2026 · NWS EPZ · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

Precipitation across southern New Mexico was generally below normal, especially around the Sacramento Mountains, in March. This lead to worsening drought conditions over northern Otero County where Severe(D2) drought conditions returned.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 24, 10:20 AM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Updated at 1119 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Record high temperatures again this afternoon through Thursday.
Very dry conditions continuing through Saturday; breezy winds Thursday pushing fire conditions to near-critical.
Cooler stretch again Friday through the weekend as cold front with breezy winds arrives Friday.
After a long stretch of dry weather we will see a chance of rain Sunday and Monday.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 10:20 AM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1120 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

 - Record high temperatures again this afternoon through Thursday.

 - Very dry conditions continuing through Saturday; breezy winds
   Thursday pushing fire conditions to near-critical.

 - Cooler stretch again Friday through the weekend as cold front with
   breezy winds arrives Friday.

 - After a long stretch of dry weather we will see a chance of
   rain Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The heat turns back on for a few more days before we get a more
substantive cool down. Currently upper high sitting over
SoCal/western Arizona. To the southwest of this high resides the
old upper low hanging on west of the Baja. Looks like more record
level high temps this afternoon through Thursday. The upper high
will gradually shift south as the Baja low rotates around it,
reaching northern New Mexico Thursday afternoon. This will aid in
forming lee-side trough over eastern New Mexico. Right now expect
west winds 10-20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph. Combine this with
the very dry airmass and fire conditions will become near-critical
but for now looks like remaining just below Red Flag criteria.

Big changes to weather pattern after Thursday. First, a strong
back door cold front sweeps in Friday morning as the upper low
exits and lee-trough allows rapid integration of the back door.
Front looks to reach the Sacs before sunrise Friday and then into
the RG Valley late morning. The front will reach the AZ border by
noon time. Expect east winds to 15-25 mph to develop with and
behind the front. Gusts to 45 mph possible along west slopes of
terrain. These stronger winds will extend all the way out to Luna
and Hidalgo Counties into the afternoon. High temps will fall
around 10-15 degrees, which is still above normal. Same story
again Saturday as lighter east/southeast winds and cooler temps
continue.

By later Saturday into Sunday, the upper high is forced eastward
as an upper trough approaches from the west. Models show by later
Saturday moisture streaming up over the area and a chance of
showers by mid-day Sunday. Chance of showers continues Monday as
the upper trough finally swings through. GFS more bullish on QPF,
but ECMWF showing the same general pattern. Needless to say, our
area could really use some precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds
west 8-12G20 knots til around 02Z, then becoming variable, mainly
northwest AOB 7 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Main fire weather concern this period centers on Thursday. Very
dry conditions and record high temps will continue. We will see
an increase in winds Thursday afternoon as an upper trough passes
through. Expect winds in the 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. This
will definitely push fire conditions to near-critical, but at
this time looks to remain just below Red Flag conditions. Strong
back door cold front sweeps in Friday morning with strong wind
shift and east winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-45
mph...strongest along west slopes of terrain.

Fire conditions will improve dramatically after Friday as both
winds will decrease, and humidity increases. And by Sunday and
Monday we even have a chance of showers.

Min RH: Lowlands 4-8% through Thursday increasing to 15-25%
Friday through Sunday. Mountains 8-15% through Thursday increasing
to 20-35% Friday through Sunday. Vent rates fair-good this
afternoon and Wednesday, becoming very good-excellent Thursday,
fair-good Friday through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  58  96  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  92  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               54  94  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               49  94  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  75  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  94  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              52  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   52  96  51  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                50  90  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       59  94  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                49  96  51  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             55  98  56  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  88  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  96  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  93  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  95  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            47  95  45  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    48  97  45  97 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 59  95  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                49  92  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                50  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 53  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  88  45  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                59  92  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                47  94  44  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  88  38  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   51  90  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    34  92  35  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               31  87  31  86 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   52  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  91  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  92  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               56  86  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet

When: March 24, 12:00 PM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone started out in Abnormally Dry(D0) drought but on March 24th, the southern half of the zone was put in Moderate(D1) drought with the north in Severe(D2) drought. The Cooperative Observer in Mountain Park reported 0.19 inches of precipitation which was 0.69 inches below normal.

Drought, Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet

When: March 24, 12:00 PM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone went from Abnormally Dry(D0) drought to Severe(D2) drought over the north and Moderate(D1) drought south on March 24th. The Cloudcroft Cooperative Observer reported 0.11 inches of precipitation which was 1.34 inches below normal.

Drought, East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet

When: March 24, 12:00 PM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone started out March in Abnormally Dry(D0) drought but by March 24th, the northern half of the zone was in Severe(D2) drought and the south in Moderate(D1) drought. No precipitation was reported at Elk which normally has 0.51 inches of precipitation in March.

Drought, West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands

When: March 24, 12:00 PM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.699, -106.589 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The zone went from having Moderate(D1) drought north and Abnormally Dry(D0) drought south to having Severe(D2) drought far north with Moderate(D1) elsewhere. Only a trace of precipitation was reported by the White Sands National Park Cooperative Observer site. This was 0.38 inches below normal.

Drought, East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo

When: March 24, 11:59 PM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 32.613, -105.742 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The western half of the zone started out in Moderate(D1) drought while the eastern half was in Abnormally Dry(D0) drought. On March 24th, the northern half of the zone was in Severe(D2) drought while the south was in Moderate(D1) drought.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in New Mexico in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in New Mexico, March 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1318076, 1318077, 1318078, 1318079, 1318080.