Drought in Oklahoma, March 24 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
653 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record heat likely Wednesday into Thursday with near-critical
  fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday.

- Cooler Friday into Saturday.

- No significant chance for precipitation this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

An upper ridge starts building across the Southwestern U.S. while
south-southeast winds will be blowing across the Southern Plains
starting today what will be a 3-day long warming trend.  We will
continue to see Cirrus increasing into the afternoon from the dirty
ridging which could impede maximum solar heating depending on how
dense it is. Based on cooler forecasted temperatures at our
mixing height (850 mb) it would appear that NBM is too warm-
biased. As a result will go cooler and closer to the MAV using the
CONShort guidance for this afternoons MaxT. Still warmer than
yesterday generally mild with highs mid to upper 70s across most
of our area but warmer into the lower to mid-80s across our
counties in southwest Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Pressure heights continue to rise under the building ridge as the
upper high starts expanding eastward across the Southern Plains and
into the Deep South by Thursday.  Surface winds veer due south by
Wednesday and increasing into Thursday with stronger warm advection.
We will also see less cloud cover both days with maximum solar
heating.  As a result it should be much hotter Wednesday & Thursday
with lower to mid 90s highs which could break or tie temperature
records. Stronger moisture advection across southeast Oklahoma
will keep that area only slightly cooler in the upper 80s. Fire
weather conditions will also be increasing these two days with an
Elevated risk on Wednesday afternoon across our far west but a
higher fire danger on Thursday afternoon over a wider area lasting
into the evening hours.

The surface pressure gradient tightens on Thursday becoming windy at
20-25 mph sustained while late morning mixing into a strong low-
level jet firing up during the early morning hours will keep south
winds gusty at 30-35 mph and perhaps even higher late in the
afternoon.  The strong gusty winds combined with low RH's will
increase the fire danger to a Near Critical risk across all of
western Oklahoma and adjacent western north Texas where the RH's
will be lowest.  A Elevated fire danger risk will extend eastward
into central Oklahoma near the I-40 corridor.  A weather system
moving through the Polar Jet in eastern Canada will be pushing a
strong cold front through the U.S. Great Plains & Midwest regions
and into our area late Thursday evening into night. Could see 20-30
mph winds with gusts over 40 mph behind this front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Windy Friday morning behind the cold front as it continues to push
through our area and could see a fairly widespread Wind Advisory
conditions through the day with 40+ mph wind gusts possible.  Will
see a repeater of Thursdays fire weather conditions on Friday but
with gusty to strong north winds. The colder air mass behind the
front will result in near normal temperatures across all but our
warmer southeast on Friday afternoon but it will feel colder
overnight to near freezing across northern Oklahoma. However the
wind chill Friday night will make it feel between 10-20 degrees if
outside. Seasonably normal temperatures will persist on Saturday
as the overnight winds will have decreased. Gusty south winds
return Sunday pushing our cooler air mass out and replacing it
with warmer air restarting a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Some areas of stratus persist across central and eastern Oklahoma
with ceilings of 5000-6000. The stratus is expected to diminish
through the day, with areas areas of mid and high clouds
persisting through the forecast period.

Winds will become southeasterly and increase late this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  59  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         80  56  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  59  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           80  51  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  53  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26