High Wind in New Mexico, January 7 to 8, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1035 PM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1003 PM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

 - A Pacific Storm System will bring widespread precipitation to
   the area tonight, with accumulating snow mainly above 7500 to
   8000 feet.

 - Mountain snow showers will linger on Thursday, with another
   system set to bring additional mountain snow showers Thursday
   night. This system may produce briefly intense snow showers and
   squalls over the Gila Region Thursday evening.

 - Periodically windy conditions are expected over the next few
   days, particularly Thursday into Friday.

 - Much colder temperatures are expected Friday and through this
   weekend. Wind Chills may dip to near zero in the Sacramento
   Mountains and Gila region Friday morning, and near 20 in the
   desert lowlands.

 - Much quieter weather is expected over the weekend, but with
   cold mornings. We will warm back up to near seasonal
   temperatures by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1003 PM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Upper air analysis this evening shows the axis of a negatively
tilted trough swinging its way into NM. Precip has expanded in
coverage across the CWA, with a few higher elevation locales seeing
a changeover to snow as colder air aloft seeps its way into the
Borderland. The trough will continue its trajectory across NM
overnight, becoming somewhat displaced from the overarching flow.
Snow levels will drop through the remainder of the night as
elaborated on in the previous discussion, with the majority of
precip diminishing around 0300 MDT, save for activity in the Sacs.

The tightening H5 pressure gradient alongside persistent lee-side
surface troughing will lend to strengthening winds overnight tonight
and then again in the late morning Thursday. The high terrain and
its immediately adjacent highlands will see the strongest gusts of
around 40 to 45 MPH. Snow showers will favor the high terrain and
given the winds, blowing snow will become a hazard.

As the system from the morning swoops up into the Great Plains,
another system comes in hot on its heels. The better moisture
accompanying this system is likely to focus across central NM
however, this system has superior dynamics, painting a swatch of
instability across portions of western NM. Models continue to hint
toward a more squall-like feature forming across the Gila and
surging southeastward Thursday evening. This would deliver a gusty
rain-snow mix to the lowlands of southwestern NM, with a changeover
to rain closer to 5000'. The more convective nature of this system
could deliver greater snow amounts tomorrow evening, particularly
for portions of Grant Co. Precipitation will taper off Friday,
exiting the area completely by the evening.

Much colder temperatures will follow in the wake of these sister
systems. While winds will help keep minTs a little higher Thursday
night into Friday morning, wind chill values will drop into the
single and potentially negative digits for the Gila and Sacs. Even
lowland zones will be party to brisk chills in the 20s, including
the ELP and LRU metros. Winds subside Friday night, allowing for
more enhanced radiational cooling. Frigid temperatures will be in
store for mountain zones, with MinTs dipping into the single digits.

A slow rebound will be in store moving into next week, with dry
conditions likely to persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 PM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Unsettled weather to persist through the TAF period. Shwrs
traversing the area are bringing lcl MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys.
Conditions are expected to continue deteriorating overnight. Wly
to swly winds will increase as the system progresses and gusts
may creep to AWW criteria briefly at KELP btwn 08/07Z and 08/12Z.
Areas of LLWS will also exist overnight across much of the area.
Winds will diminish aft sunrise but will strengthen again in the
late morning. Gusts at KELP may attempt to reach toward AWW
criteria again Thursday btwn 08/17Z and 08/22Z. Another round of
shwrs will enter portions of wrn and srn NM Thursday night,
accompanied by gusty winds, bringing more potential reductions in
cigs/vsbys.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the period. Rain and
mountain snow will overspread the area tonight, along with gusty
west winds and lowering temperatures. Accumulating snow will
mostly be above 7500 feet overnight into Thursday morning.
Isolated snow showers will continue Thursday, with gusty winds
continuing. Snow squalls and brief heavy snow showers will arrive
late Thursday afternoon and evening in the Gila, with more
moderate snow showers in the Sacramentos. Gusty winds will
continue through Friday, with sharply colder conditions.

Winds will diminish Friday night, and temperatures will only
slowly recover to near normal by Monday. Lighter winds and quieter
weather will prevail into the middle of next week.

Vent rates will be favorable despite the precip, through Friday,
with Min RH values quite elevated with the rain and snow expected.
RH values will stay in the 20 to 30 percent range through the
weekend as precip ends, and overnight recovery will be good with
the cooler temperatures and higher soil moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  61  38  53 /  90   0  20   0
Sierra Blanca            41  56  34  49 /  90   0  10   0
Las Cruces               38  55  32  49 /  90  10  30   0
Alamogordo               37  56  28  48 / 100  20  50  20
Cloudcroft               25  31  16  25 / 100  30  50  30
Truth or Consequences    37  56  32  47 /  90  20  40  10
Silver City              34  44  25  40 / 100  50  80  10
Deming                   40  56  32  49 / 100  20  70  10
Lordsburg                37  52  28  45 / 100  30  90   0
West El Paso Metro       44  59  38  52 / 100   0  20   0
Dell City                40  59  34  53 /  90   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             43  63  38  55 /  90   0  10   0
Loma Linda               39  52  33  46 / 100   0  30   0
Fabens                   42  61  38  54 / 100   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             41  57  36  50 / 100   0  20   0
White Sands HQ           43  57  36  52 / 100  10  30  10
Jornada Range            36  56  31  49 /  90  10  30  10
Hatch                    38  59  33  53 /  90  10  60  10
Columbus                 41  58  35  51 / 100  10  40  10
Orogrande                39  56  32  50 /  90  10  40  10
Mayhill                  31  46  22  39 /  90  10  30  20
Mescalero                28  44  19  37 / 100  30  60  30
Timberon                 25  41  18  36 / 100  20  40  20
Winston                  27  46  19  39 / 100  20  70  10
Hillsboro                36  53  29  48 /  90  20  60  10
Spaceport                31  56  25  49 /  90  20  50  10
Lake Roberts             30  43  18  39 / 100  60  80  10
Hurley                   34  48  25  43 / 100  30  90  10
Cliff                    35  50  25  47 / 100  70  80  10
Mule Creek               33  46  22  42 / 100  80  90  10
Faywood                  37  48  29  44 / 100  20  80  10
Animas                   37  54  28  47 / 100  20  70   0
Hachita                  36  53  28  47 / 100  10  50   0
Antelope Wells           37  54  30  49 /  90  20  60  10
Cloverdale               37  46  29  42 / 100  30  50  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for Southern Gila
     Region Highlands/Black Range.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Friday for Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday
     for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 8 AM MST Friday
     for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-West
     Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

FORECASTER...99