Blizzard in Alaska, January 7 to 8, 2026

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Wed Jan 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The end is in sight for the long duration, widespread snow for
most of the region. The surface low is currently south of
Hinchinbrook Island and will continue to slowly move southeast
through the day today. Blizzard conditions are likely reaching
their peak intensity for Whittier early this morning and winds
will slowly decrease over the next 24 hours as the low moves away
and dissipates. For today, snow will taper off from west to east,
with the west facing mountain ranges and the Central Chugach
having lingering light snow through midday to late afternoon.

Temperatures are likely to fall through the day today as the cold
airmass moves into the area. Things will bottom out Thursday
morning with many areas reaching 15 to 30 below, and the Copper
Valley dropping to 40 below once again.

Our focus then shifts to a strong front and inverted trough moving
into the Gulf Thursday with the low center south of Kodiak on
Friday. With this front, a Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for
Kodiak Island from 3pm Thursday to 3pm Friday for Blizzard
conditions and heavy snowfall. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with the orientation of the front and overall low
track, particularly in how this will relate to the thermodynamic
profile. There is high confidence that the onset of the event will
have blizzard conditions due to the very cold airmass out in front
of the system/front. As time goes on, any northwest progression of
the front will introduce warm air and cause a mix or rain
throughout the event.

For the rest of the region, a whole myriad of potential impacts
are expected. Along the coastal mountain ranges and their
respective Fjord dwelling communities, light to moderate snow and
north winds are expected to develop Thursday evening, continuing
through Friday. Blizzard conditions are looking likely for
Thompson Pass by Friday morning. For the Cook Inlet regions and
Mat-Su, north winds developing first on the western Kenai and
then moving north will loft our newly fallen, low density snow.
Additional very light snow is likely Friday as the front moves
overhead, but generally conditions will be downsloped until later
in the week. Temperatures will warm by late Friday and Saturday,
feeling downright balmy after our long duration cold snap. This
system, and it's impacts will continue through the weekend, so
stay tuned to the forecast.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills expected across
  Southwest Alaska, with this event likely to be colder and more
  widespread than previous cold air outbreaks. The Cold Weather
  Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning.

* The Winter Storm Watch for the Pribilofs has been upgraded to a
  Blizzard Warning today through Thursday afternoon. Saint George
  Island is expected to receive the brunt of the snow and winds.

* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the southern
  Alaska Peninsula, primarily for False Pass, King Cove, and Sand
  Point. Snow and blowing snow expected this afternoon through
  Thursday afternoon.

* A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Adak, Atka and Unalaska
  for possible Blizzard conditions Thursday afternoon through
  Friday afternoon.

* Arctic air and gusty winds will bring potential for extreme
  freezing spray along the ice edge.

The upper-level arctic trough remains firmly entrenched over the
interior of western Alaska. This has brought a sudden return to
bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill from the Kuskokwim Delta
south to the Alaska Peninsula. This airmass will remain in place
through Friday with temperatures continuing to drop over the next
48 hours. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from Wednesday
evening through Saturday evening, though there is potential for
frigid temperatures and wind chills to linger for longer.

With the push of a secondary front, snow and gusty winds move over
the Southern Alaska Peninsula. Snow and blowing snow are expected
from Sand Point west to False Pass. Highest snow amounts are
expected for False Pass and King Cove, with total snow amounts of
6 to 10 inches possible. Cold Bay and Sand Point may see up to 3
inches of snow accumulation. The heaviest snow is expected to
taper off through Thursday afternoon, through light snow and gusty
winds may continue through Thursday night, reducing visibilities
at times.

Cold northerly air plunges south behind the low over the Central
and Eastern Aleutians Thursday night. Gale force to storm force
wind gusts behind the low, along with a switch back to snow, may
allow for blizzard conditions for Adak, Atka, and Unalaska
Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches possible. A Blizzard Watch has been issued to highlight
this possibility. Stay tuned for further updates.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

No major changes to the previous discussion:

An Arctic air mass will be in place across much of the southern
Mainland at the start of the period on Friday, with a deep upper
level low initially centered over Southcentral. A narrow ridge
will likely be in place across parts of the Bering Sea, extending
from the North Pacific into parts of Northeast Russia and
Kamchatka. A frontal system associated with a low moving south of
Atka will bring strong easterly winds and rain/snow south of the
Bering ridge along much of the Aleutian Chain on Thursday,
changing back to snow from west to east along the Chain through
Friday as the front slides back to south and colder air drives
south across the Bering. Strong northeast surface winds will
likely be ongoing along the Southwest Coast and out across much of
the Bering Sea as a strong north-south pressure gradient combines
with strong westerly cold advection of Arctic air from Southwest.
This will likely support areas of heavy freezing spray across the
eastern Bering Sea, especially within close proximity to the sea
ice edge until winds begin to weaken and turn more northerly on
Friday.

A very active pattern is likely to continue through the weekend as
the upper level pattern amplifies with time. The upper low/trough
over Southcentral will retrograde west through the weekend,
becoming part of a deepening longwave trough setting up across the
Bering and Aleutians. At the same time, a longwave ridge will
develop downstream of the main upper trough, building steadily
into the eastern Gulf and Southeast through Sunday. This will put
Southcentral squarely within the prevailing storm track between
the very cold Arctic air building over northern/western Alaska and
the much warmer Pacific air and high pressure building into the
Gulf and Southeast. This could extend a period of major volatility
in temperatures and precipitation already getting started this
week for part of Southcentral and along the western Alaska Range
in Southwest Alaska into the weekend. Multiple large swings
between periods of cold temperatures and drier conditions and
warmer temperatures with light to moderate snow will be possible
as a series of lows move north into the region within a corridor
of southerly flow setting up between the ridge to the southeast
and trough to the northwest.

Meanwhile, most of Southwest will stay colder and drier through
the weekend as the Arctic air mass remains entrenched in place.
Much of the Aleutian Chain could see periods of ocean-effect snow
showers through Monday as cold air streaming south modifies and
picks up moisture from the warmer ocean surface.

-AS/TM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Conditions should improve quickly to VFR this morning
though some lingering north winds may continue drifting snow
through around noon today.

&&