Damaging Winds in New Jersey, June 12, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9 PM for areas
north of Philadelphia.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There remains a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and early this evening.

2. Dangerous heat and humidity for the rest of today, then much less
humid on Saturday.

3. Showers and some thunderstorms return Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night, with some severe thunderstorm risk. Cooler and less humid for
the first half of next week.

4. Widespread minor coastal flooding with the evening high tide
cycles Saturday and Sunday along the Atlantic coast, Delaware
Bay, and possibly on the tidal Delaware River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There remains a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and early this evening.

While the main cold front remains located back over portions of
western PA and NY as of early this afternoon, a pre-frontal trough
lies over central PA. It's ahead of this trough feature where
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. Have started to see an agitated
cumulus field develop over the northern two-thirds of the area on
satellite (mainly from Philadelphia northward). It's in these areas
where we are more likely to see some storm development as better
dynamics arrive in the next several hours. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued until 9 PM for areas north of Philadelphia.
Given current meso-analysis, wouldn't be surprised if convection
significantly struggles to develop south of Philadelphia and into
the Delmarva as there is a mid- level jet streak which is translating
to a localized corridor of subsidence in these areas.

The overall thermodynamics today though, are favorable for convection
with wind fields aloft and high CAPEs. Strong destabilization
will still support a severe threat where ever storms do materialize
today; which at this time appears to be further north than south.

The entire area remains highlighted in a SLIGHT risk (level 2/5) for
severe thunderstorms through this evening. Damaging winds will be
the main threat due to the high DCAPE and steep low level lapse
rates shown in recent meso-analysis. Weak low level shear, high
wetbulb zero heights, should hinder the threat for tornadoes and/or
large hail. Any convection today should end by 11 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity for the rest of today,
then much less humid on Saturday.

Dangerous heat is expected to continue for the rest of this
afternoon as high temperatures are forecast to peak into the low to
mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. This results in heat
indicies of 95 to 105 degrees across the majority of the area,
outside of the southern Poconos. This level of heat and humidity can
become dangerous quickly for sensitive individuals and those
outdoors for extended periods of time. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for portions of the area until 8 PM today.

A cold front is forecast to move through the region overnight, which
will knock the temperatures down a few degrees and allow dew points
to return to more comfortable levels for the weekend. Although it
will still be hot with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
over the weekend, dew points will mainly be in the upper 50s to low
60s. Therefore, heat indicies will not be far removed from the
actual air temperature, thus no heat headlines are anticipated over
the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Showers and some thunderstorms return Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night, with some severe thunderstorm risk.
Cooler and less humid for the first half of next week.

An expansive upper-level trough across much of eastern Canada Sunday
will gradually shift eastward into early next week. Some stronger
shortwave energy within the southern portion of the trough will
slide across our area later Sunday. A cold front will also be tied
to this feature and that will cross our area later Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening. The low to mid level flow will increase some in
response to this incoming shortwave and cold front, which will also
increase the warm air advection and also the low-level moisture
advection. At least some of the guidance shows a rapid moisture
return in the lower levels as the air mass recovers from the
substantial drying on Saturday. This will result in it feeling more
humid Sunday, however it is not expected to be at the levels we
currently are experiencing.

The main forecast challenge is the timing, coverage and intensity of
convection with this incoming system. It appears to be later in the
afternoon and at night regarding the timing. There will be a period
of stronger synoptic forcing arriving, and with the low to mid level
flow increasing some the shear will increase some as well. The
amount of instability should be sufficient enough to support some
thunderstorms, however the magnitude of this will determine the
intensity of the thunderstorms. If sufficient instability can be
realized, then some severe thunderstorms will be possible with
damaging winds the main severe weather threat. Given mostly
unidirectional flow ahead of the cold front, convection should tend
to develop into a couple of clusters or a line, with this
potentially more favorable from about the Philadelphia metro on
southward. Some model forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse
rates with some dry air in the mid levels. The steep low-level lapse
rates would result in higher DCAPE values, which is supportive of an
enhanced wind threat with any stronger thunderstorms.

In the wake of the cold front, a less humid and cooler air mass
overspreads our area through the first half of next week. An upper-
level trough starts to approach on Tuesday and that may result in a
few showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with a greater chance for some
showers and thunderstorms during Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Widespread minor coastal flooding with the evening
high tide cycles Saturday and Sunday along the Atlantic coast,
Delaware Bay, and possibly on the tidal Delaware River.

A New Moon this weekend will result in higher than normal astronomical
tides. Astronomical tides will generally be 1/2 foot less than minor
coastal flooding thresholds, and tidal departures will be around 1
foot or so. This will result in widespread minor coastal flooding
with the evening and nighttime high tide cycles Saturday and Sunday,
and potentially Monday as well on the Atlantic coast and Delaware
Bay. The tidal Delaware River and its tributaries could experience
some spotty minor tidal flooding by Sunday night's high tide, and
potentially Monday night too, but generally these astronomical tide
driven flooding events produce more noteworthy impacts for the
Atlantic coasts and Delaware Bay. The highest of the New Moon tides
will be Sunday night and Monday night. Tidal flooding is not currently
expected along the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...Prevailing VFR expected. Some brief restrictions are
possible with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon,
mainly after 20-21Z. Winds will generally remain westerly around 10-
15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt. High confidence overall,
but lower confidence with regard to timing at any given terminal.

Tonight...VFR. Any residual showers or thunderstorms should end by
00-02Z. Westerly winds early will shift to northwest around 5-10 kt
overnight in wake of a cold front. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR/SKC. West-northwest winds around 5-10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions probable for a time due to showers and
some thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Monday...VFR. Northwesterly wind gusts to 20 knots possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Some sub-VFR conditions with some showers
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Saturday. Southwest winds
around 10-15 kt this afternoon will become northwest tonight in wake
of a frontal passage. Northwest winds will continue through Saturday
morning, before transitioning back to southwest by Saturday
afternoon. Seas generally around 2-3 feet, locally up to 4 feet.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible on all marine waters
through this evening. Otherwise, fair weather is expected on
Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night...No marine hazards anticipated.

Sunday...A brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions are
possible in the afternoon and evening due to wind gusts to 25 knots.

Monday through Wednesday...No marine hazards anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For this afternoon, a medium period 8 second swell, offshore
winds, and breaking waves 2 feet or less will result in a LOW
risk for development of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey
Shore and Delaware Beaches.

On Saturday, conditions will be relatively similar, though the
dominant period will increase to around 10 to 11 seconds.
However, with winds offshore, and breaking waves again 2 feet or
less, there will not be much energy in the surf zones. This
will result in another day of a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents.

Ocean water temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.CLIMATE...
A very hot and humid airmass continues through today. Some
record high and warmest low temperatures could be challenged.

Location                   6/12 Record Warmest Low/Year

Mount Pocono                  69/2005
Allentown                     70/1942
Reading                       75/1958
Philadelphia                  75/2015
Trenton                       72/2015 & 2017
Atlantic City Airport         73/1973 & 2015
Atlantic City Marina          79/2016
Wilmington                    73/2015
Georgetown                    73/1947, 1973, 1986, & 2017

Location                   6/12 Record Highs/Year

Mount Pocono                  87/1967
Allentown                     92/1949, 1961, 2015, & 2017
Reading                       95/1984
Philadelphia                  95/1947 & 2015
Trenton                       94/1933
Atlantic City Airport         94/2017
Atlantic City Marina          93/1880 & 1914
Wilmington                    96/1933
Georgetown                    95/2017

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>015-017>020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Gorse
AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse
MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse/Hoeflich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
517 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

MDZ012-015-019-020-130930-
Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
517 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms
today. Hot and humid conditions will continue through today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a SLIGHT Risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Staarmann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
421 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     Hail             1 SSE Bartles Corners   40.53N 74.85W
06/12/2026  M0.25 Inch       Hunterdon          NJ   Trained Spotter

&&

RCM