Damaging Wind in Nebraska, May 23, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through the weekend and into the start of the
  work week.

- Currently a chance of afternoon strong to potentially severe
  storms Saturday and Sunday.

- Tuesday there will be a signal for strong sustained winds up
  to 45 mph for the three colorado counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Broad mid level troughing is in place across the region.
Slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday are forecast with
highs in the low to mid 70s. A narrow area of a tighter pressure
gradient has developed in between a surface high to the east
and developing low to the west. Wind gusts around 25-30 mph are
forecast for a brief time as this pressure gradient slowly moves
to the east through the day. Low level water vapor imagery as
of 16Z indicates a couple of disturbance upstream across the
eastern Wyoming and possibly another across the Rockies in
Colorado. These are forecast to be the focus for some shower and
storm develop across mainly northern portions of the area this
afternoon. The potential for this development does look a bit
better than what was being seen 24 hours ago so have increased
pops into the 30-40% range. Severe storms are possible with
large hail around ping pong ball size being the primary hazard.
MUCAPE is on the weaker side around 1000 j/kg but think the
steeper lapse rates should be sufficient enough to overcome the
weaker MUCAPE. Wind shear is plenty so any longer lived storm
would have the potential for the hail around ping pong ball
size. Damaging winds are possible as well with inverted v
soundings and fast storm motions around 60- 70 knots but the
stronger wind shear in place may be the limiting factor for wind
to be a bigger issue. Wind gusts up to 60 mph seem to be the
most likely outcome for wind. The limiting factor it seems for a
better wind threat despite the inverted v soundings is that the
mixing layer LCL height is lower than the freezing level which
limits the magnitude of the wind that could be mixed down. That
does change some around 00Z however along I70 across NW Kansas
so if storms are still ongoing then then the wind threat may
need to be monitored a bit more. The landspout threat that was
mentioned yesterday has become less likely as guidance has
really backed off of the boundary developing across eastern
Colorado. Showers and storms are forecast to develop around 3pm
MT with the potential for severe weather continuing through 7pm
MT.

Overnight additional showers and very isolated storms may develop
with some weak isentropic ascent in the 300K level as southeasterly
upslope flow continues as 850mb moisture advection occurs.
Confidence isn't the overall highest in this occurring at this
time with only 10-15% confidence as of this forecast package.
Overnight low temperatures are currently forecast to fall into
the mid 40s to low 50s. Winds may increase some however as low
level jet develops and decouples the atmosphere some with some
pressure falls occurring with a surface trough moving in to
help mix down some the low level jet winds. Wind gusts of 20-30
mph are currently forecast but some localized gusts around 40
mph can't be ruled out across Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) and Rawlins
county as the trough moves in.

Sunday, the positioning of the surface trough from tonight will
highly dictate wind and the threat of storms for the
afternoon. Ensembles suggest a slower progressing trough
similar to the NAM so have tailored rain chances similar to the
NAM for this package. This would support the threat of showers
and storms affecting more of the area with storms forecast to
start developing along a line from roughly Trenton, Nebraska to
Cheyenne Wells, Colorado. Initiation for this may be a bit
earlier as early as 1pm MT. Severe weather may again be possible
but isn't as strong of a signal as today. Hail up to half
dollar size and wind gusts again of 50-60 mph. MUCAPE is
forecast to be higher than today with 1500-2000 j/kg but wind
shear only around 15-25 knots suggests that storms may struggle
to maintain themselves for a longer period of time and collapse
quickly and potentially be pulsey as well. A combination of wet
and dry severe downbursts and microbursts may be possible with
DCAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg, weaker effective bulk wind
difference along with the 0-3km lapse rate grater than the dry
adiabatic. Similar to today the ML LCL is lower than the
freezing layer which impacts my confidence in the intensity.
Should any severe wind occur in the form of severe downbursts or
microbursts then localized dust storms may be possible as well.

Warm temperatures are forecast to be in place with highs in the mid
80s to even some low 90s not out of the realm of existence.
Much drier are remains forecast across Yuma and Kit Carson
counties with NAM mixing dew points suggesting dew points fall
into the mid to upper 20s which with temperatures in the mid
80s would result in humidity falling into the low to mid teens.
With good agreement with guidance the trough should be on past
these counties my concern for fire weather conditions is very
low less than 10%.

Monday, the start of an even more active looks to begin with
troughing across western CONUS and high pressure sets up across the
Atlantic. The reason why the Atlantic is being mentioned for High
Plains weather is that southeasterly winds are forecast to persist
and begin advecting in more moist air into the area. With the
troughing and more moist air pushing the signal for more
potential for showers and storms looks to continue on
Monday.Guidance indicates a stationary boundary may be in place
across the area which would be the focus for rainfall. Guidance
also indicates that high CAPE and very low shear may be in
place across the CWA which suggests to me that showers and
storms will occur with some severe threat but may not sustain
themselves very long but outflows from said storms would lead to
more storm development. Warm temperatures are again forecast
with highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Looking at the upper air pattern, there is a ridge that is set up
over the area and will bring warmer temperatures and increased
moisture. Starting with Tuesday, the high temperatures are forecast
to be in the 80s, along with lows in the 50s. As for storm potential
there is about 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE that could support
thunderstorm development. The NBM guidance does show there being
about a 20-40% chance of seeing more than 0.01".

Sustained winds do show a sign of concern for Tuesday, with having
high winds for the the Colorado counties. The sustained winds look
to remain out of the south and may reach up to 45 mph. Interestingly
enough there is support from the EFI, showing the abnormal sustained
wind speeds. The peak wind gusts will occur in the late morning to
early afternoon. Currently, there is a 5-10% that we exceed 55 mph
for wind gusts. Guidance is suggesting that the main driver behind
the increase in sustained winds being so strong, is likely due to a
850 mb low level jet. There is so me concerns for blowing dust,
however the confidence level is very low (5%). Guidance is showing,
lapse rates that are either a tad bit to high for the 2-2.5
C/km or the 0.5-1 C/km are to low. The other thing to look at is
soil moisture, especially if precipation does occur this
weekend, as of right now the moisture is above 50%.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper pattern has some uncertainty
with how this trough evolves and moves through the region. There is
some models that suggest the it will deepen and move slower compared
to the other side where it will cut off and move though quicker.

For the high temperatures for Wednesday, cool down to mid 70s and
low 80s. The lows remain in the 50s. As for winds, they transition
to come from the southeast. Wind gusts may reach up to 35 mph.
Moving to precipitation and storm chances, there is a 30-50%
chance of exceeding 0.1" for 24 hours. As for storm potential,
there is CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range which would be
sufficient for storm development. Thursday and Friday look to be
very similar to Wednesday with highs in the high 70s and low
80s. Along with winds from the southeast. The wind gusts do
remain lower than the previous days in the range of 15-25 mph.
As for precip/storm chance are pretty much the same as Wednesday
with CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.

There is a small threat for flooding during this three day period.
The main concern is that there could be a convergence zone over
Kansas. This will likely bring moisture from the south. Given the
present CAPE for each day storms/showers will likely be present.
Guidance is also showing that the PWATs for the storm environment
around 0.9" with higher values to the east where they could reach
1.3". One other thing to mention is the vertical shear is very low.
If this scenario pans out then flooding could be concern.

One final note for this three day period forecast, as mentioned
before, there is some uncertainty with the movement of the system.
That ultimately will affect the CWA's storm/showers and flooding
potential. As we move closer to the event, more information will be
available to investigate further.

Saturday's forecast does depend on what happens during the week.
Currently, the highs look to be low 80s and lows in 50s. Winds do
shift back to coming from the southeast and gusts remain in the
15-25 mph range. There is the standard CAPE range as days prior
so there could be showers and or storms present, but this a week
out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Breezy southerly winds gusting up to 25 knots are forecast for
this afternoon. Focus then turns to shower and storm potential.
Confidence is highest at MCK for at least vicinity thunder
around terminal with a 20-30% chance of actually impacting the
terminal. GLD is a bit more iffy with confidence of impacts
around 10-20%. Should a storm impact either terminal then at
least IFR visibilities could occur along with strong winds and
potentially evening hail. This threat is forecast to continue
through around 01Z. A low level jet this evening is forecast to
develop and last through the night with LLWS forecast for each
terminal. A 10% chance of more showers developing around MCK is
in the realm of possibility but will leave that mention out of
the TAF for now due to lower confidence.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg/Holdren
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
951 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241600-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
951 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026 /1051 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

An isolated severe storm or two is possible this afternoon into the
early evening mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Large hail
around ping pong ball and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the primary
hazards. These threats may pose a hazard to property and would
interfere with outdoor holiday events should they occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Another potential for strong to severe storms exists Sunday
afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph are
possible. These threats may pose a hazard to life and property and
would interfere with outdoor holiday events should they occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

NEZ080-232115-
Hitchcock NE-
356 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stratton, or 12 miles west of Trenton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stratton around 400 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Goodland.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 10103 4006 10132 4024 10132 4031 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 265DEG 33KT 4016 10125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Trigg