Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 4, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
602 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon/evening Thursday
  and Friday, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main
  concerns.

- Drier conditions arrive for this weekend with a brief return
  to low and middle 90s on Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures appear likely to arrive around the middle
  of next week with 40-70% potential for temperatures to exceed
  100F Tue-Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Currently, conditions are largely quiet across central and western
Nebraska. Lingering low clouds hover over central Nebraska with
greater clearing to the west across the Sandhills into the Panhandle
region. This is associated with a passing shortwave trough bringing
rain and thunderstorms across much of south central and southeast
Nebraska. Behind the trough axis, subsidence is helping to erode the
lower clouds and this is evident on recent satellite imagery which
shows the cu field dissipating. Temperatures ranged from upper 70s
where clouds were more prevalent into the afternoon and lower 80s in
the west. Expect temperatures to climb a few more degrees this
afternoon with dry conditions expected to persist through at least
late afternoon.

For late this afternoon/tonight...attention will turn to western
Nebraska for the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Latest satellite imagery shows
vigorous cumulus and heaps across southeast Wyoming up through
southeast Montana. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary
emanates east-northeast across far northwest Nebraska into central
and eastern South Dakota. As diurnal mixing continues, convective
temperatures should be breached effectively removing any lingering
capping inversion and storms should develop in areas with favorable
orographic. Subsidence behind the departing shortwave over
southeast Nebraska may hinder development somewhat but CAMs continue
to advocate for a few storms to reach the Sandhills and portions of
southwest Nebraska this evening. Forecast soundings depict large
inverted-v profiles with weak winds beneath the LCL. This suggests
primarily a damaging wind gust potential. Though shear is stronger
up north across South Dakota, forecast soundings show reasonable mid-
level shear with largely straight profiles. This suggests a
potential for splitting supercells capable of severe hail as well.
Storms should be ongoing to the west by 5-6pm CDT and move into our
western zones around 6-8pm CDT. Expectation is for fairly
progressive west to east motions with a quick weakening of activity
towards Midnight CDT. Some isolated showers and general
thunderstorms may persist into early Friday morning, but this is not
expected to be severe. Lows tonight will remain on the mild side
with values in the middle to upper 50s. Did add a mention of patchy
fog across largely central Nebraska tonight into early Friday. Both
SREF/HREF highlight 50%+ potential for visibilities to fall below
1SM. Raw HRRR output suggests a FG.Y may need considered this
evening but will defer to later shifts once confidence in magnitude
of impacts improves.

Friday/Friday Night...rain and thunderstorms are again possible
during the late afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary from
Thursday will be forced south from thunderstorm activity as a
surface low takes shape over southeast Colorado/northeast New
Mexico. This boundary should settle around a MCK to LXN to GRI line.
Warmer temperatures will reside to the south, with upper 80s to
lower 90s, while areas to the north should only manage to reach the
middle 80s. Strong theta-e fetch at h85 will nose into the boundary
off the surface and lead to fairly rapid thunderstorms development
in the afternoon and evening hours. This will focus along and just
north of the aforementioned surface boundary. Shear vectors are
largely parallel to the surface boundary and this will favor fairly
quick upscale growth. CAMs and mid-range models suggest development
will favor eastern Nebraska with potential to extend further west
towards central Nebraska. This puts the local area on the western
periphery of any development with about a 50/50 split in NWP
guidance giving us anything regarding rain/thunderstorms. Because of
this, PoPs were kept low at or below 20% with even lower confidence
in seeing severe weather. Temperatures will again be on the milder
side with lows ranging from the middle 50s to near 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

This weekend...much warmer temperatures will briefly arrive as
conditions dry out. Amplifying ridge will lead to rapid height rises
across the Central and Northern Plains. A thermal ridge will nose in
as southwesterly mid-level flow develops on the upstream side of the
high pressure aloft. Deepening low pressure across northwest Wyoming
will strengthen southerly flow leading to breezy conditions.
Temperatures at h7 will reach the 12-14C range as 1000-500 thickness
values exceed 580 dam. NBM median output shows upper 90s for
southwest Nebraska with higher percentile outputs reaching triple
digits. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows 0.6-0.8 values
across the Sandhills into the Panhandle, further illustrating the
anomalous warmth expected. Current forecast highs call from middle
to upper 90s west of Highway 83 with lower 90s to the east. While
falling short of conventional head headline criteria, concern is
increasing given it's a weekend and one of the first heat concern
days of the season. Folks are advised caution if expecting to be
outdoors for extended periods of time. While not a conventional
ridge breakdown, an embedded disturbance within the ridging aloft
will lift north and east through the Southern and Central Plains.
While no significant airmass change is expected, passing upper-level
troughing and an influx of greater moisture should support not only
slightly increased precipitation chances but a 4-6F cooldown across
the board. Even so, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will still
be something for folks to consider as they make their plans. Evening
thunderstorms are possible as moisture continues to stream into the
area and a sharp dryline stalls across the High Plains. PoPs
increase quickly in the evening, particularly west of Highway 83.
Adequate instability and deep-layer shear appears adequate for a
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms so stay tuned.

Monday and beyond...temperatures again begin to moderate early next
work week as ridging returns behind the lifting shortwave trough.
EFI continues to highlight increasingly anomalous heat towards the
middle of the week with 0.6-0.8 and non-zero Shift of Tails values
arriving for Tuesday and Wednesday. NBM highlights 40%+ potential
for exceeding 100F by Tuesday, peaking around 50-70% on Wednesday.
The latest forecast highs approach record levels for Wednesday
(06/10) and this bears watching over the next few days.
Interestingly, 100F+ days have only occurred on 06/10 at VTN 4 times
previously, most recently in 1976. With the current forecast high of
101F, this would be the earliest instance of a 100F+ observed high
temperature at Valentine since 2020 and nearly a month before the
average first 100F+ date in the site's history. As broad troughing
becomes established across the northwest, enhanced mid-level flow
will develop and cross the Rockies overtop a fairly humid airmass
across the Plains. This should set the area up for the potential for
organized convection. Whether this remains north of the area or
brings some impacts locally remains to be seen and will likely hinge
on smaller scale local influences, of which will be very difficult
to glean at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Thunderstorms are expected to dissipate
as they approach the terminal this evening. However, mid level
cloudiness will increase as storms decay off to the west.
Ceilings may fall to around 15000 FT AGL with broken to overcast
coverage. Skies will then scatter out by late evening with cloud
decks around 25000 FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: There will be
an increasing threat for thunderstorms later this evening with
the greatest threat between 03z and 07z. Some gusts may reach up
to 40 KTS INVOF storms with visibilities as low as 3 to 5SM with
the stronger storms. The threat for thunderstorms will end after
07z with broken mid level cloudiness persisting overnight.
Ceilings will range from 10000 to 12000 FT AGL. Skies will then
clear Friday morning with scattered high clouds around 25000 FT
AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
349 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 /249 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Late this afternoon into the evening, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will begin to develop across western Nebraska and move
east into the local area. A few storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible across far southeastern areas Friday
afternoon and evening, with a few possibly severe. Thunderstorms
chances return Sunday into Monday. At this time, the threat for
severe weather is uncertain.

Temperatures will reach the mid 90s Saturday, with 95 to 100
possible by next Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
504 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

NEZ022-056-042345-
Deuel NE-Garden NE-
504 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GARDEN AND WESTERN
DEUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 504 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles east of Dalton to
near Colton. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chappell, Oshkosh, Lisco, Mount Vernon, Intersection of Highway 27
and 9 Mile Road, and Sugar Loaf Hill.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 78 and
93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 10234 4100 10233 4100 10261 4139 10261
      4140 10264 4152 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 263DEG 26KT 4143 10285 4119 10288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
541 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

NEZ022-035-056-057-050015-
Deuel NE-Arthur NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
541 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ARTHUR...WESTERN
KEITH...SOUTHERN GARDEN AND DEUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 541 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles south of Crescent
Lake National Wildlife Refuge to near Chappell. Movement was east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chappell, Oshkosh, Big Springs, Lewellen, Barton, Eagle Gulch
Campground, Ruthon, Clear Creek State Wildlife Management Area,
Dogtown Flats, Intersection of Highway 27 and 9 Mile Road, Megeath,
Ash Hollow State Historical Park, Mount Vernon, Goldeneye State
Wildlife Management Area, Bluewater Battlefield State Historical
Park, Windlass Hill, and Sugar Loaf Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 115 and 125.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 80 and 113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 10187 4102 10197 4101 10259 4164 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 265DEG 49KT 4158 10241 4116 10248

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
715 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

NEZ004-094-050200-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
715 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM MDT...

At 715 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Gordon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 61 crossing the Snake River, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara
River, Indian Hill, Intersection of Highway 61 and Shadbolt Road,
Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Rock Hill, and Bayonne.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 117 and 121.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 198 and 221.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4257 10207 4278 10207 4292 10146 4250 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 267DEG 23KT 4269 10191

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Buttler