Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, June 4, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
648 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe weather along and south of Hwy 12.
  Areas to the north of Hwy 12 are under a Marginal Risk.
  Storms are expected to initialize during the late afternoon
  and continue through the evening. Large hail of 1-2" in
  diameter will be the main threat, with wind gusts of 60 mph as
  a secondary threat. Can't rule out a tornado over south
  central South Dakota or heavy rainfall leading to flooding.

- A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the
  low to mid 90s across the forecast area on Saturday and
  Sunday, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Some spotty showers and storms have been moving through central SD
this morning and will continue to move east into the early
afternoon. While these have mainly been just showers and some
occasional lightning, a stronger cell or two has had some dime
sized hail from them at times.

A cold front is currently sitting over south central and
northeastern SD, and will be slowly moving south through the
afternoon and tonight. Some warm, moist air continues to move into
the state as the afternoon heat helps to destabilize the atmosphere.
Models are showing MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg over central and
northeastern SD, with the highest instability over south central SD.
The scattered morning showers and storms could help to stabilize the
atmosphere over central SD into the afternoon, which could decrease
the ability for storms to develop during the late afternoon. The
storms that do develop will likely turn into discrete supercells
from shear values of 35-45kts late this afternoon into the evening
over central SD. These storms will be moving east through the
evening over northeastern SD. Another cluster of storms is forecast
to develop again over south central SD and move east over east
central through the overnight hours. Large hail will be the primary
threat with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km helping to get hail
with the diameter of 1-2 inches to the surface. Additionally, with
DCAPE around and above 800 J/kg, strong to damaging wind gusts from
the storms will be possible. Models are showing a lack of low level
shear over central and northeastern SD that would help tornadoes to
develop. However, there is a little bit over south central SD,
making it so that a tornado or two can not be ruled out. Storm
motions for the storms are forecast to be around if not faster than
15kts, which will reduce the chances for slow moving storms.
However, the flooding potential is still there with higher PWAT
values, the chance for storms to move over the same areas, and if
over areas that have recieved a lot of rain over the past couple of
days.

There could be some lingering showers over south central and
northeastern SD Friday morning after the storms move out overnight.
There should be a break from severe storm Friday, though some
isolated to scattered showers and storms could develop Friday
afternoon over northeastern SD. The lack of shear over northeastern
SD Friday will help to keep the storms from becoming long lived and
supercellular in nature. The potential for storms to develop will
decrease once the sun sets.

Friday night through Sunday, and upper-level ridge will start
building and moving over SD. This ridge will help to keep
precipitation out for a bit, giving us break from storms and rain
for a day or two. Under this ridge, warmer temperatures will be
moving in, which will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Sunday
afternoon into Monday, a surface trough will be moving over SD. This
surface trough will bring the next chance for storms and showers to
occur Sunday evening into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

TSRA/+TSRA possible again at most TAF sites this evening, with
IFR VSBY possible in the strongest storms. Although at 00Z, it
appears KATY has the highest threat to see storms through around
02Z or 03Z. Otherwise, trend is for quieter weather conditions
on Friday with mostly VFR conditions expected. There may be
pockets of lower MVFR CIGs across the region early Friday
morning, but low confidence on overall areal coverage.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...TMT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
143 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

MNZ046-SDZ006>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051-051845-
Big Stone-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-Potter-Faulk-Spink-
Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
143 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 /1243 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Slight Risk for severe weather (Level 2 of 5) is in effect for
storms this afternoon and evening. Large Hail of 1-2" in diameter
and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats. Can't
rule out tornado development over central South Dakota, and heavy
rainfall producing flooding is also a threat (particularly over areas
that have received substantial rainfall already this week).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our X
feed.

MNZ039-SDZ003>005-009-015-051845-
Traverse-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Dewey-
143 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 /1243 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Slight Risk for severe weather (Level 2 of 5) is in effect for
storms this afternoon and evening. Large Hail of 1-2" in diameter
and damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats. Can't
rule out tornado development over central South Dakota, and heavy
rainfall producing flooding is also a threat (particularly over areas
that have received substantial rainfall already this week).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
719 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

SDZ048-050045-
Lyman SD-
719 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Lake Francis Case, or 11 miles southwest of
Oacoma, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Francis Case.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Aberdeen.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4359 9963 4371 9962 4374 9942 4371 9941
      4368 9947 4365 9945 4366 9940 4366 9937
      4363 9935 4358 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 264DEG 20KT 4366 9951

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TMT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
735 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     Hail             6 S Wessington          44.37N 98.72W
06/04/2026  E1.00 Inch       Hand               SD   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

TMT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
802 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Hail             8 SSE Vayland           44.38N 98.76W
06/04/2026  E0.88 Inch       Hand               SD   Public

            Time estimated.

&&

MC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
805 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     Hail             13 SSE Vayland          44.32N 98.72W
06/04/2026  E1.00 Inch       Hand               SD   Public

            Time estimated. Also came with brief 50 to
            60 mph gusts.

&&

MC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
815 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

SDZ037-050145-
Hand SD-
815 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HAND COUNTY THROUGH
845 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rosehill Dam, or 15 miles southeast of Miller, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasant Valley Country Church, Rosehill Dam, Danforth, and Vayland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Aberdeen.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central South Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 9901 4449 9884 4449 9870 4420 9870
      4419 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 268DEG 22KT 4431 9885

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
839 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

MNZ046-050230-
Big Stone MN-
839 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BIG STONE COUNTY
THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 839 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ortonville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ortonville, Artichoke, Lagoona Beach, Artichoke Lake, and Big Stone
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Aberdeen.

&&

LAT...LON 4529 9645 4530 9645 4536 9649 4538 9653
      4541 9653 4544 9624 4541 9624 4541 9612
      4525 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 266DEG 19KT 4535 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TMT