High Wind in Nebraska, April 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1230 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front moves through early Friday morning will drop
  temperatures below freezing overnight Friday and Saturday.
  Light snowfall may occur behind the front as well.

- Eastern Colorado has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for
  Friday night into Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch remains for
  northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska. Temperatures
  dropping into the low 20s may damage vegetation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This morning, a cold front is entering from the northwest. This is
the accompanying feature of the incoming mid level trough. Winds
will rapidly shift, becoming north-northwesterly, and gusting around
30-40 kts, with pockets up to 50 kts being possible. This is
hazardous for any smoldering fires as they could flare back up and
could make east/west travel in high profile vehicles difficult.
There is a low chance of blowing dust as this front comes in, but
potential for less than 1 mile in blowing dust is only around 2%.
Winds will weaken around sunset, and largely be under 20 kts by 6Z.

By 12-14Z, the front will have cleared the CWA, but winds gusting
around 30 kts will be common all day. This has a 10% chance of
causing localized plumes of blowing dust in the afternoon hours.
Temperatures will be stunted, topping out in the 40s to upper 50s.
Combined with a 10F increase in dew points behind the front, RH
values will remain above 25%, eliminating any critical fire weather
concerns. In fact, there will be an increase chance of precipitation
throughout the day.

Precipitation will primarily be focused in the far northwestern CWA
and start off as rain. As the day progresses and more CAA moves in,
snow will mix in. Throughout the day, the precipitation will largely
remain along and west of KS 27, but by sunset most of the area could
see some very light precipitation. Additionally, areas west of U.S.
385 will only be seeing snow after sunset as the precipitation
tapers off. By 3-6Z, all precipitation should have ceased.

QPF is expected to be light, under 0.1" but this could lead to some
slick spots on elevated surfaces in eastern Colorado Friday
evening/night. Additionally, Friday night into Saturday morning,
temperatures will drop into the 20s across the CWA. These
temperatures have prompted the issuance of a Freeze Warning for
eastern Colorado and a Freeze Watch for rest of the area. Current
confidence in temperatures below 30 degrees across the entire Tri-
State area is around 75-80%. While the growing season as defined by
climatological normals would usually not start until late April in
eastern areas and early May in western areas, the unusually warm
March and early April has resulted in green-up across the entire
area much earlier than those dates. As a result, the growing season
for practical purposes has begun and frost and freeze products will
be issued for the remainder of the season as needed.

Saturday, an 850 mb Colorado high will funnel in northwesterly air
into the region, keeping temperatures seasonal, around 60 for highs.
Unfortunately, RH values will be dropping into the low to mid teens
again as northwesterly winds gust around 20-30 kts. This returns the
threat for critical fire weather concerns, mainly in eastern
Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Upper-level ridging looks to be moving into the forecast region by
Sunday morning. GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance is
consistent with upper-level ridging extending through at least
Tuesday afternoon, and potentially into the overnight hours. Warm
conditions are favored from this pattern, with forecast temperatures
in the 70s and lower-80s on Sunday, and 80s Monday and Tuesday. GEFS
guidance also provides high confidence in an 850-mb high pressure
system across the Southern Plains Sunday, which would enhance
southwesterly surface flow across the CWA. Relative humidities (RH)
may be very low Sunday, with the forecast showing values in the
single-digits nearly everywhere, and possibly in the mid single-
digits in portions of Eastern Colorado. Dry conditions continue to
look favorable into Monday and Tuesday, though slow eastward
progression of the 850-mb high may help moisture creep back into the
forecast region. Forecast RH values Monday and Tuesday are in the
upper single-digits to low-teens, and low to mid-teens respectively.
Critical fire weather conditions may be in play all three days,
though forecast wind gusts are either too low or barely meeting
criteria in most locations. NBM guidance is currently showing the
best opportunities for higher wind gusts on Monday, with a 50-60%
chance that gusts meet criteria for critical fire weather across
portions of Eastern Colorado and Northwest Kansas. However, a
reasonable maximum for wind gusts in the NBM 90th percentile shows
gusts in the 30s across this zone, which would lead to higher
potential for the hazard. Still, confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed any of these three days is currently in the 5-10%
range.

By Wednesday morning, an upper-level trough looks to be moving into
or established over the West Coast. Significant timing issues exist
regarding this feature's eastward progression, as GEFS and EC 500-mb
mean-spread guidance shows a large amount of spread on either side
of the feature. However, similar guidance provides higher confidence
that the slow eastward-moving high at 850-mb will be across the
Southeastern United States by Wednesday morning, and potentially
moving off the southeast coast. As such, air with higher moisture
content may begin to make its way into the forecast region
Wednesday, with forecast guidance showing a dryline across the
Kansas 27 and Kansas 25 Corridors during the afternoon. Dewpoints
may reach into the 40s and lower-50s on the moist side of the
boundary, which could support thunderstorm potential. However, RH
values on the dry side of the boundary are forecast once again in
the low to mid-teens, which could support further critical fire
weather conditions. This setup for a mixed mode of thunderstorms and
fire weather may last into Thursday, depending on how quickly the
500-mb trough from the west moves eastward. A slower progression
would provide the best potential for a multi-day severe event,
whereas the faster progression may confine severe potential to
Wednesday. For Thursday, around 30% of EC, and 10% of GEFS members
show a scenario where the surface low has progressed too far east
for severe weather to be a major concern, which would correspond to
the 500-mb trough having a faster progression. Still, NBM guidance
suggests around a 20% chance for precipitation Wednesday afternoon
and evening for areas north of I-70, and a 20-25% chance Thursday
across most of the CWA. Forecast details regarding the timing,
duration, and significance of severe/fire potential will need to be
refined as we approach the event.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected at both KGLD and KMCK behind a
strong cold front overnight. There is only a 10-15% chance IFR
conditions will set in, but ceilings will start lifting in the
late morning. Current impact timing of the cold front for KMCK
look to be between 9-10Z and 945-12Z for KGLD. Updated timings
in the TAFs may occur later in the night. Winds with the front
will be gusting around 30-35 kts, then largely remain in the
25-35 kts range until sunset. For KGLD there is also a 20-30%
chance of light precipitation around sunset Friday. Impacts are
not expected at this point. After sunset, winds will gradually
weaken to the 10-20 kts range from the northwest. Temperatures
below freezing are expected tomorrow night, increasing the icing
risk with any lingering clouds or moisture.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Saturday for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1235 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-180645-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1235 AM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026 /135 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Winds from the north-northwest will be gusting 30-45 MPH today.
Occasional gusts up to 60 MPH are possible. East/west travel in high
profile vehicles may be hazardous.

A Freeze Warning for eastern Colorado and a Freeze Watch for the rest
of the area remain active for Friday night. Temperatures below 32
degrees Fahrenheit may damage or kill vegetation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A Freeze Warning for eastern Colorado and a Freeze Watch for the rest
of the area remain active for Saturday morning. Temperatures below
32 degrees Fahrenheit may damage or kill vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Active weather across portions of the Tri-State Area is anticipated.
Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.