Tornadoes and Hail in Minnesota, April 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex severe weather forecast for this afternoon as
  possibly two waves of storms are in the offing, with the
  strength and timing of the first wave of storms playing into
  how the second wave of storms evolves.

- Large hail up to 2-3" in diameter, damaging winds of 60 to 70
  mph, a few tornadoes (some strong), and locally heavy
  rainfall are all on the table with these storms.

- Much colder for the weekend with low temperatures falling
  below freezing starting tonight through Sunday night. Daytime
  highs over the weekend will be stuck in the 40s. Can't rule
  out some flurries on Saturday.

- Dry conditions and warming temperatures expected for the start
  of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Continuing to see rapid evolution of the environment over the
local area. Right now, the cold front is located near I35 in MN
tailing southwestward into IA. Surface low pressure is southwest
of Mason City at 17Z. To the east, widespread billow clouds
indicate a stable boundary layer over the much of southeast MN
and northeast IA. Closer to the front on I-35, the cumulus field
looks primed to initiate.

Warm Front: A confluence region exists approaching the Miss
river where some elevated echo is seen near Winona. SPC mesoa
deep moisture convergence is along this axis N-S and the latest
CAMS agree on more initiation over the next hour. That eastern
environment is elevated still with 2000-2500 J/Kg MUCAPE.
Development on this N-S axis is round 1 and as it heads east
with the dewpoint surging northward, these storms have
increasing chances at becoming surface-based in western WI.
However, this is moving east at a pretty good clip and depending
on the initiation of said storms, these might be surface-based
and mature into central and southwest WI or east of the local
area. The environment is rich, with effective helicity over 200
m2/s2 and 25-35 kts of 0-1km bulk shear now. If the low-level
winds remained backed, the CAMS suggest 300 eSRH and 200 0-500m
SRH in swrn WI by 2 pm. Supercells and strong tornadoes possible
with probabilities higher to I90 and south in WI for this area.

Cold Front: The cold front will also initiate on the western
edge of the warm sector and winds are all backed into the front
right now with the surface low traveling north, over sern MN
and nern IA, with loopy long hodographs there as well. The main
question remains of how fast the storms becomes a line there.
Initial discrete storms will work toward linear modes with 0-6
shear vectors and the 850-300 mb mean wind at 45 degrees to the
front. Strong linear forcing /cold front/ seems like it may go
linear than remain discrete. BUT, while discrete, the looping
hodographs mean tornado potential is certain there in sern MN
and western nern IA. First lightning strikes just seen along the
cold front near I-35 per GOES GLM.

Tornado Watch is forthcoming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Severe Weather Threat for this Afternoon

Even at the 11th hour, some critical details on the evolution
of our afternoon severe weather threat remain to be nailed down.
This is a situation where attention needs to be paid to the
weather throughout the afternoon as the threats unfold.

The early morning surface analysis across the Upper Midwest
shows our culprit cold front stretching from Sioux Falls, SD to
International Falls, MN and marching steadily to the ESE, aided
by an approaching seasonably strong upper tropospheric northern
stream trough and strong CAA pursuing over the Dakotas. A
994-mb surface low pressure cell over eastern Nebraska will
propagate quickly northeast along the front, lifting a warm
front with it through the region this morning. Strong surface
theta-e advection is being observed across western Iowa ahead of
this low with dewpoints reaching the low to mid 60s just ahead
of the front. This is a classic "nick of time" severe weather
scenario where the favorable thermodynamic severe weather
environment will arrive just ahead of storm initiation.

There are two windows of opportunity for storms to form later
this morning into the afternoon, one wave along the leading
warm frontal boundary and the second with the cold front coming
through a few hours later. Rapid destabilization is progged to
occur in the warm sector as the warm front lifts through the
region between 16-19Z with warm sector MLCAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg and deep shear profiles of 30-50+ kts. Low level
hodographs along the warm front will feature very favorable
profiles in the 0-1 to 0-6-km layer supportive of strongly
rotating updrafts and tornadoes. This parameter space exists for
several hours in the warm sector in the wake of the warm front
until the cold front blasts through between 18-00Z today from
west to east.

The timing of the storms will be absolutely critical today to
determine how the exact severe hazards will unfold with several
different scenarios in play. The latest runs of the HRRR are
favoring elevated convection developing north of the triple
point and kickstarting convection down the warm front as it
lifts into the forecast area. However, the updraft strength in
these model runs has not been overly strong with this round of
convection at first, likely owing to the mean storm motions (for
storms developing along the front) outpacing the boundary and
resulting in the storms tracking into a much higher inhibition
airmass ahead of the front before deviant right moving storm
motions can be achieved. A few CAM solutions show more robust
updrafts able to slow down and stay within the more favorable
thermodynamic environment, so how the threat along this boundary
evolves may have to be assessed on a storm by storm basis in
real time.

Can't fully rule out more open warm sector convection lagging
the warm front given the dynamic environment in place, which
would result in storms posing an all hazards risk rather
quickly. This looks to be more of a lower confidence, but
potentially higher impact scenario.

Attention then turns to the cold front as it cruises to the ESE
through the forecast area this afternoon. Recent CAM runs are
hinting at a better risk for larger and more robust storms
further south along what would now be more of a prefrontal
trough versus a true warm front in Iowa. Should robust
convection develop within this corridor--the inflow for our cold
frontal storms--this may choke off development further north
along the cold front. How far north remains to be seen. A
linear upscale growth progression is expected along the front as
the afternoon goes on, with the line advancing out of the
region by 00Z. Both supercellular and QLCS tornadoes would be
possible along the line given the favorable respective shear
profiles for both setups.

Alot to happen in a short 6-7 hour window this afternoon and
only small changes to the timing of any one of these variables
could have a domino effect on the rest of the event.

This Weekend & Early Next Week: Drier & Cooler

As we head past today, cooler air works its way in within the
broader troughing regime on Saturday with highs likely
plummeting into the 40s to lower 50s for the weekend. Cannot
rule out some flurries or light snow showers north of I-94
during the morning hours on Saturday. Overnight lows on
Saturday night will likely fall below freezing for many spots so
be sure to cover any plants you have set out! However, no
accumulations would be expected. Otherwise, surface high
pressure moves into the region for Sunday keeping us relatively
precipitation free into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A rapidly moving cold front is currently located just to the
west of KRST as of 17/17Z. Visible Satellite and Radar Imagery
show convection starting to develop along the front. MVFR to IFR
Cu and stratus with gusty southerly flow up to 30 kt is being
observed just east of this activity. Thunderstorms and
convective showers will rapidly develop with TSRA chances with
IFR or lower ceilings for KRST through 19Z. These storms will
likely develop into a line with better chances for TSRA around
20Z for KLSE (+/- 1 hour). All modes of severe weather are
possible including large hail, damaging winds, and lightning.
General frontal turbulence is also likely. Winds will quickly
shift to the NW and remain gusty behind the front shortly after.
CIGs are likely to remain MVFR category are several hours and
gradually lifting to VFR conditions with high clouds towards the
latter end of the package.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A Flood Watch has been issued for Southwest Wisconsin and
portions of West Central Wisconsin given the chance for
additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
These areas have already seen copious amounts of rainfall over
the last week with many rivers experiencing signficiant flooding
(enough to close some roads in multiple counties). A
widespread 1/2 inch of rain is likely with localized pockets of
1-2 inches--any additional rain will be problematic and only
exacerbate existing problems. Mudslides also look to be a
problem as we haven't seen a full green up yet so roots have not
taken a strong hold yet. Rivers across Wisconsin are likely to
see additional rises, especially the Kickapoo, Yellow, Black,
and Wisconsin.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for WIZ042>044-053>055-
     061.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

UPDATE...Baumgardt
DISCUSSION...Naylor/Skow
AVIATION...NWS
HYDROLOGY...Barendse

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

WIZ033-034-041>044-053>055-061-181245-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-Grant-
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Wisconsin...southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The threat for severe weather returns this afternoon as possibly
two lines of storms moves through the region. Large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible with these
storms depending on how the event unfolds.

Flooding along rivers and low lying locations will continue
through at least the weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar has been scheduled for 1030 am this morning.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032-
181245-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The threat for severe weather returns this afternoon as possibly
two lines of storms moves through the region. Large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible with these
storms depending on how the event unfolds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar has been scheduled for 1030 am this morning.

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
123 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

IAZ030-WIZ061-171900-
Clayton IA-Grant WI-
123 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLAYTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Holy Cross, or 14 miles southeast of Guttenberg, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lancaster around 140 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Big H Campground,
Preston, Arthur, Montfort, Turkey River, Union, Beetown, Cornelia,
Porters Bridge, and Burton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northeastern
Iowa...and southwestern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 9070 4265 9076 4268 9090 4265 9090
      4265 9112 4320 9043 4251 9043 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 226DEG 49KT 4260 9097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ferguson