Montana, 2026

Drought in Montana, May 12 to 31, 2026

May 12 to 31, 2026 · NWS GGW · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Through most of the month of May, drought conditions intensified and expanded across the eastern edge of Montana.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.

Through most of the month of May, drought conditions intensified and expanded across the eastern edge of Montana.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 11:57 PM MST, 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Warm and mainly conditions are expected the next few days, peaking on Wednesday.
  • A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Wednesday area wide, and another fire product is likely needed for Thursday. A Lake Wind Advisory will be needed for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the whole area, mainly from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.
  • There is moderate uncertainty on when the next low pressure system will move through beyond Thursday.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 11:57 PM MST, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1257 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mainly conditions are expected the next few days,
  peaking on Wednesday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Wednesday area wide, and
  another fire product is likely needed for Thursday. A Lake Wind
  Advisory will be needed for Wednesday and Thursday. A High Wind
  Watch is in effect for the whole area, mainly from Wednesday
  evening through Thursday evening.

- There is moderate uncertainty on when the next low pressure
  system will move through beyond Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
An upper ridge is expected to move in today according to the
latest GFS ensemble. The peak of this ridge is going to occur on
Wednesday and will be the warmest day of 2026 so far for most
locations. Some locations will likely have highs in the 90s with
increased dry southerly flow, which will contribute to the
critical fire weather conditions. A trough moves through Wednesday
night and keeps winds elevated through at least Friday, with
potential gusts between 50 and 60 expected, and few isolated gusts
higher than that. Although cooler temperatures will occur on
Thursday, a fire weather product will likely be issued as the
event draws closer.

A more zonal flow pattern develops thereafter to moderate
temperatures some and bring smaller synoptic ridge/trough
couplets embedded in it. This will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms at times across the region through the weekend with
possible wetting rains or even a marginal severe potential
depending on whether it matches up with peak heating. Individual
ensemble members continue to disagree on what day/time any given
ridge/trough couplet moves through though.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
No deviations were made.

There is high confidence in temperatures through Thursday and a
Lake Wind Advisory being needed on Wednesday and Thursday. There
is moderate to high confidence on fire weather conditions
Wednesday and Thursday, as well as for high winds occurring on
Thursday. There is moderate confidence in scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving through on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0700Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions and partly cloudy conditions are
expected through tonight as an upper ridge moves in.

WIND: Northwest at 6 to 16 knots becoming light and variable after
00Z Wednesday.

EQUIPMENT: No obs from KSDY. TAF will be AMD NOT SKED until obs
return.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort
Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-
Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties-Southern
Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The
Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell
National Wildlife Refuge.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-
Daniels-Dawson-Eastern Roosevelt-Garfield-McCone-Northern
Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie-Richland-Sheridan-
Western Roosevelt-Wibaux.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening
for Southwest Phillips.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Dawson

When
May 12, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dawson forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.266, -104.899 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

To start the month, D2 drought conditions began for all but the far northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern edges of the county. After mid-month and through the rest of the month, those D2 drought conditions expanded in all directions, and intensified to D3 conditions for central, eastern, and northeastern portions of the county.

Drought, Richland

When
May 12, 12:00 AM MST to May 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Richland forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
47.788, -104.561 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

D2 drought conditions developed into southwestern and central Richland County to begin the month. In the second week of the month, D2 drought conditions expanded to cover all but the far northeast corner of the county. From mid-May through the end of the month, that extent of D2 drought conditions remained, but a broad central portion Richland County intensified to D3 drought conditions.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, May 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1327878, 1327879.