Texas, 2026Drought in Texas, May 12 to 25, 2026
May 12 to 25, 2026 · NWS BRO · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
Welcome rains late on May 8th and early on May 9th reduced mentionable drought conditions for Storm Data (Severe, or D2, or higher levels) across most of the Brush Country, with a sliver of D2 remaining in northeast Zapata and northwest Jim Hogg - the last vestige of what had been a larger area of Exceptional (D4) Drought at the end of March.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Welcome rains late on May 8th and early on May 9th reduced mentionable drought conditions for Storm Data (Severe, or D2, or higher levels) across most of the Brush Country, with a sliver of D2 remaining in northeast Zapata and northwest Jim Hogg - the last vestige of what had been a larger area of Exceptional (D4) Drought at the end of March.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Key Messages: * Rain-free weather conditions with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through next weekend. * Heat Risk could begin building next weekend into the early parts of next week; widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecasted. * There is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms developing next week (Monday through Wednesday).
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
Key Messages:
* Rain-free weather conditions with warmer than normal temperatures
can be expected through next weekend.
* Heat Risk could begin building next weekend into the early parts
of next week; widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk with
pockets of Extreme (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecasted.
* There is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms developing next week (Monday through Wednesday).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Rain-free weather conditions along with warmer than normal temps
can be expected through at least next weekend with high pressure
in control, frontal boundaries well to our north, and a 588-591
dam heat ridge in place over Deep South Texas. We'll have to keep
an eye out for next week and the potential for the weather pattern
to become a bit more unsettled.
Multiple forecast and AI/ML models/ensembles are suggesting an
increase in showers and thunderstorms next week in association
with an approaching or nearby frontal system. Currently, we have
low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Again, we will continue to
monitor the trends on the chance for the pattern becoming a bit
more unsettled next week. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has
outlooked much of Texas including all of Deep South Texas under a
medium (50-60%) chance for a wetter than normal pattern in it's
6-10 day outlook which covers May 17-21.
As mentioned earlier, temperatures will rune warmer than normal
through the forecast period. High temperatures will generally range
between the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas. There
could be a few upper 90s across the far western sections of our CWA
(i.e. Zapata and Starr Counties). Overnight low temperatures will be
in the 60s and 70s tonight through Thursday night before climbing
into the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday night through next Tuesday
night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all
TAF sites. Light northeast to easterly winds should also continue
through the period as well.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through next
weekend with low to moderate winds and seas. Moderate seas could
begin developing Friday night through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 87 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 86 66 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 88 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 88 69 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 82 76 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...64-Katz
Drought, Jim Hogg
- When
- May 12, 12:00 AM CST to May 25, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Jim Hogg forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe (D2) Drought persisted in northwest Jim Hogg County through the second and third weeks of May, before torrential rainfall of 3+ inches fell overnight May 20 into May 21, erasing the last of mentionable (D2) conditions for Storm Data beginning on May 26th.
Drought, Zapata
- When
- May 12, 12:00 AM CST to May 25, 11:59 PM CST
- Where
- Zapata forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 27.001, -99.169 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Severe (D2) Drought persisted in far northeast Zapata County through the second and third weeks of May, before torrential rainfall of 2+ inches fell overnight May 20 into May 21, erasing the last of mentionable (D2) conditions for Storm Data beginning on May 26th.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Tornadoes in Florida, May 12, 2026$250,000 · EF0 · 2 events
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Puerto Rico, May 12, 2026$32,000 · 7 events
- Frost and Freeze in New York, May 12, 202611 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Winds in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, May 12, 20265 events
- Drought in Montana, May 12 to 31, 20264 events
- Drought in Pennsylvania, May 12 to 31, 20263 events
- Flash Flooding in Georgia, May 12 to 13, 20263 events
- Drought in Montana, May 12 to 31, 20262 events
- Hail in Florida, May 12, 20261 in hail · 2 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Wind in Gulf of Mexico, May 12, 20261 event
- Heavy Rain in Georgia, May 12 to 13, 20261 event
- Damaging Wind in Arizona, May 12, 2026$2,000 · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1344545, 1344546.