Texas, 2026

Drought in Texas, May 12 to 25, 2026

May 12 to 25, 2026 · NWS BRO · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Welcome rains late on May 8th and early on May 9th reduced mentionable drought conditions for Storm Data (Severe, or D2, or higher levels) across most of the Brush Country, with a sliver of D2 remaining in northeast Zapata and northwest Jim Hogg - the last vestige of what had been a larger area of Exceptional (D4) Drought at the end of March.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

Welcome rains late on May 8th and early on May 9th reduced mentionable drought conditions for Storm Data (Severe, or D2, or higher levels) across most of the Brush Country, with a sliver of D2 remaining in northeast Zapata and northwest Jim Hogg - the last vestige of what had been a larger area of Exceptional (D4) Drought at the end of March.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 11, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • Updated at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026 Key Messages: * Rain-free weather conditions with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through next weekend. * Heat Risk could begin building next weekend into the early parts of next week; widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecasted. * There is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms developing next week (Monday through Wednesday).
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 11:15 PM CST, 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Key Messages:

* Rain-free weather conditions with warmer than normal temperatures
  can be expected through next weekend.

* Heat Risk could begin building next weekend into the early parts
  of next week; widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk with
  pockets of Extreme (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecasted.

* There is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers and
  thunderstorms developing next week (Monday through Wednesday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain-free weather conditions along with warmer than normal temps
can be expected through at least next weekend with high pressure
in control, frontal boundaries well to our north, and a 588-591
dam heat ridge in place over Deep South Texas. We'll have to keep
an eye out for next week and the potential for the weather pattern
to become a bit more unsettled.

Multiple forecast and AI/ML models/ensembles are suggesting an
increase in showers and thunderstorms next week in association
with an approaching or nearby frontal system. Currently, we have
low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Again, we will continue to
monitor the trends on the chance for the pattern becoming a bit
more unsettled next week. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has
outlooked much of Texas including all of Deep South Texas under a
medium (50-60%) chance for a wetter than normal pattern in it's
6-10 day outlook which covers May 17-21.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures will rune warmer than normal
through the forecast period. High temperatures will generally range
between the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas. There
could be a few upper 90s across the far western sections of our CWA
(i.e. Zapata and Starr Counties). Overnight low temperatures will be
in the 60s and 70s tonight through Thursday night before climbing
into the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday night through next Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all
TAF sites. Light northeast to easterly winds should also continue
through the period as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through next
weekend with low to moderate winds and seas. Moderate seas could
begin developing Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             87  70  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               86  66  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 88  70  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         88  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  75  82  76 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     84  70  86  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...64-Katz

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When
May 12, 12:00 AM CST to May 25, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought persisted in northwest Jim Hogg County through the second and third weeks of May, before torrential rainfall of 3+ inches fell overnight May 20 into May 21, erasing the last of mentionable (D2) conditions for Storm Data beginning on May 26th.

Drought, Zapata

When
May 12, 12:00 AM CST to May 25, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Zapata forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
27.001, -99.169 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe (D2) Drought persisted in far northeast Zapata County through the second and third weeks of May, before torrential rainfall of 2+ inches fell overnight May 20 into May 21, erasing the last of mentionable (D2) conditions for Storm Data beginning on May 26th.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1344545, 1344546.