A dry microburst formed over the Tucson metro the afternoon of May 12th. This dry microburst caused roof damage to a large steel warehouse building.
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The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
A dry microburst formed over the Tucson metro the afternoon of May 12th. This dry microburst caused roof damage to a large steel warehouse building. With this microburst, there was a recorded wind gust of 56 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 12:07 PM MST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1207 PM MST Tue May 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures will continue today, with high temperatures 10 to 13 degrees above normal. High temperatures will then lower several degrees starting tomorrow, but still remain above normal into the weekend. Otherwise, there will be enough mid- level moisture for some afternoon and evening cloud build-ups mainly from Tucson eastward today and for Cochise/Graham/Greenlee Counties tomorrow, resulting in a slight chance of virga or dry thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...This morning's water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region with a trough over Baja California, oriented in a west-east. This set will continue the hot temperatures today, although, it will be slightly cooler. But, temperatures will be running above normal. Plus, there is mid-level moisture over the International Border with PWATs 0.6 inches up to close to 0.70 inches. This will provide weather challenges for today and tomorrow. Today...Ensemble and hi-res models show the development of thicker mid level clouds through the rest of today. There is enough instability and moisture to trigger virga and dry lightning. The probability of dry lightning is less than 5 percent, but still a a risk due to the dry conditions on the ground. The main threat from virga will be the gusty and erratic winds. The HREF has 30% of seeing gusts greater than 30kts over a large swath of area from Tucson south and east. A few virga showers can be stronger, resulting in stronger gusts. The bulk of the activity will occur this afternoon and diminishing in the early evening. The cloud cover will stick around tonight. Tomorrow...The trough will push north and shift east, bringing southwesterly to westerly breezes of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph across the region. Elevated fire weather concerns will develop in the afternoon as well. The trough will shove the moisture to the eastern portion of the county warning area with Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee county with less than 5% for dry lightning. Otherwise, another round of virga with gusty winds in the afternoon. Thursday and beyond...Our pattern will be zonal flow through the start of the weekend. Westerly winds will develop with elevated fire weather conditions south and east of Tucson on Thursday. Another trough will develop by the late weekend over the western United States. This will be a dry system with stronger breezes. As of now, the latest forecast has Sunday being a breezier day. Temperatures will be near normal and Minor HeatRisk by the start of the new week. && .AVIATION...valid through 14/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds through the evening. Isolated virga/dry thunderstorms mainly 12/19Z to 13/03Z, capable of producing gusty outflow winds. Terminals more likely to be in vicinity of this activity include KDUG and KTUS. Otherwise surface winds becoming south to southwesterly 8-13 kts with occasional gusts to 15-20 kts through 13/03Z, then light and terrain driven through 13/18Z. Winds after 13/18Z will increase and become southwesterly to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures today will be 10-13 degrees above normal, lowering several degrees staring tomorrow and continuing into the weekend, but still remaining above normal. Min relative humidity values through the weekend will generally be in the 6-14 percent range in the valleys and 10-20 percent in the mountains. 20-foot winds today and Friday through Saturday will be 15 mph or less, with typical afternoon and early evening gusts to around 25 mph due to strong surface heating. Elevated southwest-west winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday and again in the early new week, with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Enough mid level moisture will be in place south and east of Tucson through Wednesday for some cloud build- ups and a slight chance (5-15 percent) of dry thunderstorms and/or gusty outflow winds. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 40 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:38 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A dry microburst caused roof damage to a large steel warehouse building. With this microburst, there was a recorded wind gust of 56 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1340649.