An upper level low pressure system was situated over the Northern Plains during the early morning hours of May 23 with an associated shortwave trough over the central CONUS. As the morning progressed into the afternoon, the shortwave trough continued to push east toward the Missouri Ozarks.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
An upper level low pressure system was situated over the Northern Plains during the early morning hours of May 23 with an associated shortwave trough over the central CONUS. As the morning progressed into the afternoon, the shortwave trough continued to push east toward the Missouri Ozarks. Instability increased ahead of the trough, near a remnant Mesoscale Convective Vortex, and near a stationary front across central Missouri. Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms developed across portions of Kansas into Missouri as a result, with heavy rainfall leading to flooded roads across portions of Barry, Dallas, and Jasper counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 12:43 PM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 143 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall possible. - Fog, locally dense, possible tonight and Sunday night. - Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall possible. - Impacts: General thunder impacts and localized marginal flooding risk. - Details: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this afternoon into this evening before shifting east. Localized rainfall amounts of 2-3" are possible. - Confidence: High confidence in coverage and potential impact. - Meteorological Analysis: Shortwave energy, a remnant MCV and a stationary front (over the NW CWA) have led to thunderstorms across the area. MLCAPE up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg over the NW CWA and closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere is accompanied by very weak shear of < 20 kts. This will lead to slow storm movements and potential for very isolated heavy rainfall up to 2-3" per REFS LPMM. This could result in isolated marginal flooding potential. Fog, locally dense, possible tonight and Sunday night. - Impacts: Travel difficulty for road and air traffic. - Details: Fog will be possible both nights and may be locally dense. May need a Dense Fog Advisory. - Confidence: For tonight, REFS probabilities for < 1/4 mile vis are 50-70% along and west of Hwy 65 and across the Lake of the Ozarks region. Elsewhere, probabilities for even light fog are < 20%. For Sunday night, < 1/4 mile probabilities are generally 30-50% over the lakes regions and < 20% elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Rain chances return next Tuesday through the end of next week. There will be periods of dry weather during this time between rounds of rain. - Impacts: None at this time. - Details: Daily rainfall is forecast, although it won't be a total washout. - Confidence: Medium confidence in a wet pattern developing. Low confidence in daily timing and coverage details. - Meteorological Analysis: Weak upper level energy will shift north into the area Monday night and Tuesday and remain nearby while a deep upper low moves over the intermountain west. This will support southerly low level flow off the Gulf of America, supplying moisture to accompany the large scale ascent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 Showers and thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase this afternoon and evening before shifting east. Look for another round of fog tonight into early Sunday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 202 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241915- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 202 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Elevated lightning risk. Limited excessive rainfall risk Elevated Fog risk. DISCUSSION... Rain with embedded scattered thunderstorms will move across the area from west to east into this evening. There will be the potential for some areas of localized heavy rainfall. Locally dense fog is possible tonight for areas both along and west of Highway 65 and across the Lake of the Ozarks region. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The active pattern will continue through next week, with daily chances of showers. There will be periods of dry weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Titus
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Highway 86 was closed due to water over the road.
State Highway T was closed due to flooding at Shoal Creek.
Water was reported over the road on State Highway 32 near Antler Trail east of Long Lane.
State Highway 43 was closed due to flooding near Base Line Blvd.
State Highway M was closed due to flooding near Highway 43.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1336543, 1336545, 1336544, 1336541, 1336542.