Flash Flood in Mississippi, May 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
624 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be
  monitored through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Today and Tonight:

Longwave trough to ridge pattern of the CONUS will keep rain in the
ArkLaMiss region. A shortwave disturbance moving across Lower MS
Valley will filter in additional moisture into the area, resulting
in PW values in the 99th percentile. Widespread showers and storms
are expected through the evening. With PW values in the 99th
percentile, ample moisture transport, and storm training, flash
flooding will possible today in areas receiving heavy rainfall. /SW/

Friday through next Wednesday...The primary focus through the mid
and extended portions of the forecast will continue to be that of
multiple bouts of rainfall affecting the area.  Under persistent
southwesterly to southerly flow across the region, multiple
disturbances aloft will traverse the forecast area through the
Memorial Day weekend into the middle of next week.  These
disturbances, coupled with the warm and abundantly moist airmass in
place across the area, will yield multiple bouts of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain falling across the forecast area during this
time.

As rainfall continues to accumulate across the area during this
time, in addition to just the daily potential for high rainfall
rates over a short amount of time in localized areas, the threat for
flash flooding could begin to become a concern.  This will need to
be monitored, with flooding hazards potentially being added to the
HWO for portions of, if not all of, the forecast area through this
forecast period.  Otherwise, expect muggy conditions overall with
near seasonable highs for this time of year.  However at night,
expect above normal lows. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Morning showers with an isolated storms are moving across sites
resulting in a mix of current flight conditions. Patchy fog will be
possible through 14Z. As ceilings improve, flight conditions will
return to VFR. Additional showers/storms are expected through the
evening, lasting through the rest of the period. Flight conditions
are expected to vary between MVFR/IFR flight conditions due to rain
and low ceilings. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  69  81  69 /  70  70  80  50
Meridian      83  69  82  70 /  80  60 100  60
Vicksburg     82  68  81  69 /  80  80 100  30
Hattiesburg   84  70  83  70 /  80  60 100  60
Natchez       84  69  82  70 /  80  80  80  30
Greenville    81  68  81  68 /  60  90  80  40
Greenwood     82  68  81  68 /  80  80  90  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

SW/19/SW