Hail in Minnesota, May 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1132 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Good chance (50-60%) for showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon into tonight which will bring a small risk for
  strong wind gusts. Potential (20-30%) for the same exists
  again Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

2 shots for showers and storms with risk for strong wind gusts

16z WV satellite shows a disturbance over central MN with some
associated convection slowly churning east-northeastward on the
northern side of an upper ridge centered over IA. At the surface,
dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s, a small step
upward compared to yesterday. 26.12z RAOB at MPX and 26.00z RAOB at
DVN show a small uptick in overall moisture through the column as
well with PWAT values approaching 1 inch.

This afternoon into tonight, central MN disturbance will roll east
on the north side of the IA upper ridge before an additional
shortwave dives southeast out of MN, likely (60%) kicking off
showers and thunderstorms. Given the nearby presence of the ridge,
flow through the column is weak with little shear, so organized
convection is not expected and the development of stronger cells
will depend on outflow boundary interactions. That said, 26.12z HREF
DCAPE values range from 750-925 J/kg with a well-mixed boundary
layer expected, so a stray severe wind gust could (5%) occur.
Thinking severe hail is even less likely given relatively skinny
instability profiles and no rotating updrafts to induce greater
residence time for developing hailstones.

Wednesday afternoon and evening, additional convection may develop
as another disturbance dives southeast out of northern MN. With the
aforementioned upper ridge becoming centered over the Dakotas,
uptick in flow aloft will lead to a bit more deep shear - around 25
knots - so cannot rule out weakly organized convection. However,
progged soundings show a return of the mid-level dry air that
prevented updrafts from surviving on Monday. Therefore, while a
severe gust or hail report would be a bit more probable should
thunderstorms develop, the overall chance to get a storm at all is
lower (30%) compared to Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures continue

While a backdoor front pushes through Wednesday night, this should
only knock Thursday's temperatures back to around normal for late
May with highs in the mid to upper 70s. After a good post-frontal
radiational cooling night Thursday, when some lower 40s are possible
in the cranberry region of Wisconsin, temperatures return to several
degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s through
Tuesday. Exact values are still in a bit more question than usual
given our placement between the central CONUS ridge and persistent
eastern troughiness, but 26.13z NBM interquartile spread
consistently covers the aforementioned range. Given overall pattern,
it appears highly doubtful enough moisture will reach the CWA for
precipitation to happen, even on days when the ridge remains far
enough west for northwesterly flow aloft to become predominant.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A MCV will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening west of the Mississippi River and from mid
evening into the overnight for western Wisconsin. With so much
inconsistency on where they may occur in the CAMs, opted to just
lower ceilings to 10K feet at this time.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1147 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

IAZ008>011-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-
053>055-272100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
1147 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will likely (60 percent chance) develop later this
afternoon and evening and continue into the overnight. Some
thunderstorms may bring strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ018-019-029-030-WIZ061-272100-
Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Grant-
1147 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

APF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
518 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ079-WIZ032-262245-
Wabasha MN-Buffalo WI-
518 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WABASHA AND WEST
CENTRAL BUFFALO COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kellogg, or near Wabasha, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Alma and Kellogg around 525 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Rattlesnake Ridge,
Lock And Dam 4, Pioneer Campground, Weaver, Highways 37 And 35, West
Newton, Tell, Conception, and Kruger Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4424 9210 4433 9211 4442 9186 4421 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 267DEG 10KT 4430 9202

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Naylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
530 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

WIZ029-262300-
Clark WI-
530 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Neillsville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Clark
County, including the following locations... Chili, Hog Corners,
Highway 73 And 98, Chili Corners, Christie, Globe, Granton, Veefkind,
Lynn, and County Roads H And K.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9065 4470 9076 4483 9032 4457 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 247DEG 7KT 4464 9060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Naylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
541 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

WIZ029-034-262315-
Jackson WI-Clark WI-
541 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND EAST
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Shortville, or 15 miles southeast of Neillsville,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Clark
and east central Jackson Counties, including the following
locations... Pray and City Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4427 9047 4439 9055 4451 9032 4428 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 245DEG 15KT 4437 9041

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Naylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
550 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ094-262315-
Mower MN-
550 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOWER COUNTY THROUGH 615
PM CDT...

At 550 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rose Creek, or 7 miles east of Austin, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Mower
County, including the following locations... Elkton, Renova, and
Dexter.

This includes Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 181 and
198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4358 9287 4371 9295 4382 9265 4359 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 265DEG 15KT 4367 9282

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Naylor