Hail in Minnesota, May 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon
  into the evening over portions of eastern North Dakota into
  west central Minnesota. Hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60
  mph are the primary threats.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are ongoing across
  northwest Minnesota through early evening. Near critical to
  critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts of
  the region each day through early next week.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected through early next
  week, with near record highs into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...Synopsis...

A large scale blocking ridge will be the dominant feature across
the Northern Plains and our local area at least into this
weekend, with an eventual weakening or breakdown of the ridge
within our region early next week. As that occurs ensembles show
an increase in spread with clusters congregating towards a
scenario with westerly flow (generally drier) or southwesterly
flow (better potential for precipitation or thunderstorms).
Model consensus after today's thunderstorm chances show very low
chances for measurable precipitation and no signal for
organized convection. Main weather impacts in the next 7 days
(besides the thunderstorm today) will be the extended period of
well above average temperatures and daily fire weather concerns.

...Isolated severe thunderstorms through this evening...

A frontal zone stretching from near Devils Lake to Hillsboro to
Park Rapids is the focus for thunderstorm initiation, with
MLCAPE and DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG on the moist side of of the
main front (SB CAPE exceeding 2000 J/KG). Deep layer/effective
shear should generally remain below 30kt and 0-3km shear under
20kt along and south of this from, though it will tend to
increase across the north later this evening (as instability
decreases). This favors pulse/air mass type thunderstorms with
hail and wind threats generally on the lower end of severe
impact ranges (1"/60 mph) through sunset. As would be expected
CAMs shows cellular convection eventually merging into less
organized cells this evening along the frontal zone with a
transition to showers/embedded weaker convection after sunset.

...Fire weather concerns through this weekend...

Recent rains continued to rapid green-up, however as multiple
dry/hot days have occurred there could be curing underway and
considering there is still some dead grass/fuel loading we may see
increasingly dry/critical fuels region-wide daily. As anomalously
high temperatures continue daily at least parts of the region will
continue to see daily RH values around or less than 25%, with NBM
(and it's high bias) already showing values in the 20-25% range late
week into this weekend. Due to the ridge axis aloft, winds aloft
will be weaker in general, so this creates much more variable
surface winds/gusts during periods of peak mixing reducing the
predictability of RFW conditions. At the very least near
critical fire weather conditions can be anticipated over at
least parts of (if not much of the region) particularly late
this week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for most locations across eastern
ND and northwest MN through the TAF period. The exception will
be where thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and evening
where visibilities could be reduced to MVFR or even IFR.
Coverage along the frontal zone will tend to be scattered in
relation to shower/thunderstorm coverage, with severe
thunderstorm potential in southeast ND and west central MN
isolated in nature. The highest probability for any
thunderstorms to impact terminals (30-50%) would be at KFAR and
KDVL during the evening and early overnight hours. Winds are
generally from the east-southeast 10-15kt with periodic gusts
around 20kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
544 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ003-027>032-040-NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-
053-271045-
Clay-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-
East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Nelson-
Griggs-Steele-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
544 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be hail to 1
inch, 60 mph wind gusts and lightning. Coverage of severe storms
will be isolated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024-NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054-
271045-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
Cavalier-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Traill-Western Walsh-
544 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
evening due to low relative humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.