Hail in Minnesota, May 26, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures continue through the forecast period, with
  today likely the hottest with low 90s possible.

- Chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday, then a prolonged
  dry pattern sets up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed from eastern Yellow
Medicine County southeastward into north central IA early this
morning on the leading edge of richer pwats. These storms will
continue working northeast during the next several hours toward
the MN River Valley before likely dissipating mid morning. Some
of the storms may contain hail. A boundary shifted north around
midnight and temperatures jumped 5 to 10 degrees quickly behind
it with MSP still sitting at 77 degrees as of 145 AM. It will
be another very warm day today with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lower 90s may be more widespread if residual cloud
cover from morning convection is minimized and redevelopment of
convection holds off until late in the day. MUCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg is expected to develop as the day progresses thanks to
steep mid level lapse rates and pwats increasing to 1.5 inches.
Shear will be quite weak so convection will not be particularly
organized. However, some large hail is possible with the
stronger updrafts given the steep mid lapse rates and moderate
to strong CAPE. Gusty winds are also possible given the
relatively dry layer below 10 kft. Initial development may occur
by mid afternoon. Several outflow boundaries from initial
activity may act as a focus for additional development. Coverage
will peak in the early to mid evening before nocturnal
stabilization begins to decay convection thereafter. A backdoor
cold front will make southwestward progress Wednesday to the
Mississippi River late Wednesday afternoon. Additional
development may occur along it and ahead of it during peak
heating, but coverage will be more isolated than today.

High pressure will build south into the Great Lakes late week
through early next week. Surface winds will shift easterly and
much drier air will work in, ending the shower and thunderstorm
chances for a while. Temperatures will remain warm in the low to
mid 80s each day, ending May on a much warmer note.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Isolated thunderstorms have developed at TAF issuance time along
the IA/MN border southwest of MKT. This activity should spread
north overnight toward MKT and RWF and may persist through mid
morning before dissipating. Additional showers and storms are
likely to develop late in the day and this evening, but
coverage, timing, and location are of low confidence so kept any
mention of this round out of the TAFs for now. It may need to be
added for the 12Z issuance if confidence increases.

KMSP...Showers and storms should remain south overnight.
Additional TS may develop at any time later this afternoon and
evening. While the current TAF is optimistic, once details
become a bit clearer TS will likely be introduced in some form
in a future update.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc aftn -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
323 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
270830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
323 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
that will continue into the evening. A few of these storms could
be severe with wind gusts near 60 mph and hail near 1 inch in
diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
518 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MNZ065-261045-
Renville MN-
518 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 518 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Renville, or 13 miles north of Redwood Falls,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Danube.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4467 9517 4474 9526 4485 9512 4475 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 234DEG 10KT 4473 9516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Borghoff