Drought in Minnesota, June 9 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms continue in north-central
  Minnesota through early this morning. Small hail and locally
  gusty winds are possible. Severe weather is not expected.

- Widespread dense fog lingers into this morning, especially
  near Lake Superior.

- A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms
  Tuesday night through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous severe
  storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday
  afternoon and evening. Widespread rainfall in excess of at
  least 0.5" is likely with localized heavy rain possible that
  could lead to flash flooding.

- Hot temperatures are expected today and Wednesday when
  afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s
  to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. A Heat
  Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM today and may be
  needed on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

We expanded the Dense Fog Advisory into Pine County east to
Sawyer County and to northern St. Louis County as dense fog
continues to expand early this morning. Additional adjustments
may be needed. Fog should gradually improve in the hours after
sunrise this morning.

Northeast winds of 10-15 mph and waves around 2 ft could lead to
a risk of rip currents for the beaches of the Twin Ports this
evening. Confidence in the need for a Beach Hazard Statement was
not high enough with this update, but will need to be monitored
today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Forecast remains on track for multiple rounds of storms tonight
into Wednesday along with the threat for severe storms. The main
threat tonight looks to be from damaging winds, especially for
areas west of US53/I-35 in Minnesota. CAMs bring a large
complex of storms into our western zones after midnight tonight
with activity diminishing as it moves east into Wednesday
morning. The evolution of this complex of storms will then
factor in to the development of storms Wednesday afternoon ahead
of a cold front. Clouds and lingering rainfall may suppress
additional development, but any clearing will lead to favorable
conditions for strong to severe storms. Forecast soundings show
2000-3000 J/kg with varying degrees of shear. Current evolution
favors discrete cells at the onset with upscale growth as the
event progresses. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes will all be possible. The greatest tornado threat
looks to be south of a Brainerd to Grand Rapids to Two Harbors
to Hurley line.

The other forecast concern for today, and to a lesser extent
Wednesday, will be the very warm temperatures expected. Highs
today will reach into the 80s and lower 90s across most of the
region with dewpoints in the 60s. While this will only lead to
heat indicies in the upper 80s and lower 90s, wet bulb globe
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s along with
moderate Heat Risk values across our western and southern zones.
Based on local research, this combination of WBGTs and Heat Risk
would lead to Heat Advisory conditions, so have issued an
advisory for these areas. Similar conditions will be possible on
Wednesday, especially across the southern half of the forecast
area, but lingering questions on cloud cover and lingering rain
prevents any watch products for heat with this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level
trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great
Lakes has brought areas of rain showers and thunderstorms which
should gradually move out of the area through the afternoon and
evening. No severe storms are expected with this disturbance, and
the area should see anywhere from 0.1-0.8" of rain, highest amounts
towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest in the MN Arrowhead. A few
lucky folks might even get to measure over an inch on Tuesday
morning. This evening, we might see a stronger thunderstorm or two
redevelop in the Brainerd Lake and Iron Range area along a weak cold
front pushing east. All precipitation activity should fizzle
overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect widespread fog to develop
from Lake Superior and push inland overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect beginning this evening around the lake, and may need to
be expanded based on latest visibility trends. Fog should largely
improve through Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into
our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low
should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north-
central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm
potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and
shear, and a strong mid level jet. These storms are expected to be
discrete at first in the Dakotas, morphing into a linear structure
and accelerating into the Northland sometime between 1-5am Wednesday
morning. There is the potential that this line could still be severe
as it gets into our area, but the threat is conditional, due to the
timing of the front coming in overnight, which will make for a
battle between that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition.
Main threats would be large hail and damaging winds.

Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area,
buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the
Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered
to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all
hazards as storms unzip along the cold front midday to early
afternoon and then push east. There is some uncertainty with this
setup, as the front continues to trend faster and lingering
precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could make things
messy. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance
for a widespread 0.5"+. There could be some locally higher amounts
of 1-2"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT
as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be
in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew
points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat
Advisories will likely Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe
thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler
temperatures. We stay in a  zonal flow pattern into the weekend,
stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains
moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at
time, but nothing significant is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Seeing IFR to VLIFR conditions in fog and dense fog for most
terminals aside from INL and only IFR ceilings at HYR. Fog and
low stratus will lift through mid-morning, with VFR conditions
returning by late morning and persisting through this afternoon.
Another round of fog to dense fog and low stratus is then
expected to develop during the evening and tonight near Lake
Superior again. A line of showers and potentially strong to
severe storms moves in from the west/southwest late tonight into
early Wednesday morning, first impacts BRD and then spreading
northeast. Strong, erratic winds and hail are possible, but were
not mentioned in the TAFs for now. Storms will be weakening
with northeast extent into Wednesday morning, as well. Southeast
winds will remain light this morning, then increase starting
this afternoon and evening, though the gustier winds of 20-25 kt
will mainly this evening and tonight in areas inland from Lake
Superior.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Light and variable winds this morning will become easterly by
midday at 5 to 15 knots. The strongest winds are expected in the
western arm of the lake into the Twin Ports during the afternoon
and evening hours. Easterly winds will continue for tonight into
Wednesday at around 5 to 15 knots. Multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are expected late tonight and again Wednesday
afternoon with gusty winds and large hail expected along with
heavy downpours. A front will move through late Wednesday with
winds becoming southwesterly Wednesday night at 10 to 20 knots.
Dense fog will also linger into mid to late morning.
Uncertainty remains as to how long it will linger this morning
and the Dense Fog Advisory made need to be extended.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Hot and dry conditions are expected today under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Conditions will be humid, so that will keep
afternoon RH values above 40%. Winds will be easterly to
southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms arrive
tonight and last into Wednesday morning with another round
expected later on Wednesday. Some of these storms may be strong
to severe, especially the round later Wednesday. Most areas look
to receive at least a quarter of an inch of rainfall with higher
amounts to 0.50 to 1" possible across north-central Minnesota
and inland northwest Wisconsin. More rainfall will be possible
for Thursday before trending drier for the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ011-012-
     019>021-037-038.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ010-011-018-025-026-033>036-038.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>003-
     006>008.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ006>008.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142.

&&

UPDATE...BJH/Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-100845-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are expected early this morning in north-
central Minnesota. A few of these storms could produce small hail
and locally gusty winds. No severe weather is expected.

Expect dense fog for much of the Northland this morning. A Dense
Fog Advisory is in effect.

Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph and waves up to 2 feet this
evening could lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at Twin
Ports Beaches.

Hot and humid weather with at least Moderate Heat Risk Impacts
for areas away from Lake Superior today. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for this afternoon and evening.

Scattered severe storms are possible late tonight, with the best
potential in north-central and portions of northeast Minnesota.
The main severe hazard would be damaging wind gusts, with
secondary threats of large hail, locally heavy rain, and possibly
an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe storms from late Tuesday night could linger into early
Wednesday morning. A second round of scattered to numerous severe
storms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging to
significant wind gusts, large to very large hail, tornadoes, and
localized heavy rain are the storm threats.

Hot and humid weather with at least Moderate Heat Risk Impacts
continue on Wednesday, with the best potential in northwest
Wisconsin. Another Heat Advisory may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed late tonight and Wednesday.

LSZ121-140>148-150-100845-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense fog continue today. A marine dense fog advisory is
in effect.

Strong storms are possible late tonight, which could produce wind
gusts to 40 kt, small hail, and cloud-to-water lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong storms could linger into early Wednesday morning, which
could produce wind gusts to 40 kt, small hail, and cloud-to-water
lightning.

Severe storms are likely Wednesday afternoon and evening, with
large to very large hail and wind gusts of 40-60 kt possible.

Breezy southwest winds on Thursday and Friday may lead to
hazardous conditions for small craft.

Rothstein

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth