Damaging Winds in North Dakota, June 9 to 10, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
 afternoon, night, and into early Wednesday morning. Afternoon
 main hazards would be large hail to size of golf balls,
 tornadoes, and gusts to 60 mph. For tonight into Wednesday
 morning, main hazards would be very strong winds to 80 mph,
 line-embedded brief tornadoes, and hail to the size of
 quarters. There is also a flash flood risk tonight.

-Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the upper 80s to
 low and mid 90s, highest within the Red River Valley. A Heat
 Advisory has been issued for the Red River Valley this
 afternoon. Those working outside or exercising in directly
 sunlight or those sensitive to heat will experience impacts.

-There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
 afternoon east of the Red River. Main hazards include hail to
 the size of golf balls, wind gusts to 60 mph, and perhaps
 tornadoes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper level trough over the Northwest Pacific into Intermountain
West is allowing embedded waves of energy to spread over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today, including one shortwave
of note that will move out of the Northern Rockies into the
western Dakotas and eventually southern MB.

Ahead of these features, an air mass composed of hot
temperatures into the 90s concurrent with rich low level
moisture with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s has
overspread eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

This will set the stage for robust and eventual widespread
thunderstorms to develop, including those that become severe
given the increasing wind energy associated with the upper
trough, and locally enhanced near the embedded shortwave
troughs.

Hot and moist air mass currently in place is also leading to
potential for heat-related impacts to more sensitive groups this
afternoon within the Red River Valley. More information on this
can be found below.

The warm and moist air mass is expected to still linger within
Minnesota by afternoon Wednesday ahead of an eventual cold front
that will finally move east through our area by the afternoon.
The upper trough axis will also finally swing through our area
Wednesday during the day. This will allow for additional
thunderstorms to develop mainly within Minnesota, some of which
may again be severe.

More specific details on today's and Wednesday's severe risk can
be found below.

Thursday into next week, the pattern changes turning much cooler
and windier than recent days. Upper trough migrates into
southern Canada bringing zonal to northwesterly flow aloft over
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with the help of several
reinforcing cold fronts to sweep through our area. Forecast
highs into the 60s and lows into the 40s this weekend through at
least early next week.

...Severe risk today and Wednesday...

Previous AFDs talked about potential for discrete
supercellular-type storms capable of all hazards this
afternoon. Thus far, attempts at sustained thunderstorm
development has failed within our area. This may be due to just
enough capping as observed on a UND sounding sampled from Grand
Forks at 18Z.

However, with continued daytime heating and gradually increasing
moisture converging in localized areas within the Red River
Valley, northeast ND and northwest MN, there is still a chance
this scenario could come to fruition. Should this occur, large
hail to the size of golf balls (perhaps larger), tornadoes, and
localized gusts to 60 mph would be main hazards. This window for
discrete storms generally ends at around sunset/7 PM.

Later this evening/night, there remains high confidence in a
larger complex/line of storms to enter into the Devils Lake
basin at around 8 PM from central ND, with either additional
complex/line of storms or the same complex pushing
east/northeast elsewhere into eastern ND, Red River Valley, and
northwest into west-central MN during the overnight to early
morning Wednesday hours.

Main hazards with this later activity will be very gusty winds
60-70 mph, locally 80 mph, as well as line-embedded brief
tornadoes. Line-embedded tornadoes are typically on the weaker
side (less than EF-2 strength), and relatively brief/localized,
although potentially numerous spin ups could happen (low
confidence in coverage). These would likely be contingent to
portions of the leading edge of the complex/line that orient
themselves more west-east, and more perpendicular to the low
level shear. Additionally, these may be intermingled with
similarly strengthed straight lined winds to 80 mph.

While hail remains possible, hail would likely be more on the
smaller size (up to quarter inch), with the exception of if an
embedded supercellular structure can develop within the
complex/line in which hail could be as large as golf balls.

And for what it's worth based on recent questions we've
received, we are not anticipating this event to be similar to
June 20th 2025's derecho, based on this event's instability,
shear, and forcing for ascent parameter spacing not as robust as
June 20th's.

Getting into Wednesday, additional scattered storms are expected
to develop in the warm sector ahead of a cold front pushing east
into Minnesota. Instability and shear will still be high enough
to allow for potential severe storms as early as early
afternoon, lasting until around sunset. Main hazards with this
activity would be large hail to size of golf balls, localized
gusts to 60 mph, and perhaps isolated tornadoes.

...Heat-related impacts this afternoon...

As of writing this discussion, heat indices within portions of
the Red River Valley are in the upper 90s nearing 100F. Heat
indices nearing or just touching 100 F combined with wet-bulb
globe temperatures into the low 80s as well as Heat Risk of
Moderate to Major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4) within the Red River
Valley pushed the need for an Advisory.

These conditions will be impactful to those more sensitive to
heat as well as those who are working/exercising outside as well
as to those without a means of cooling.

Heat impacts end after sunset this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to move across eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota late this evening and overnight.
The most likely time of arrival for KDVL is 02-03Z, KGFK/KFAR
05-07Z, KTVF 06-08Z and KBJI 08-09Z. Damaging wind gusts of
45-55kts is the primary threat with LIFR conditions in heavy
precipitation. Large hail will be a greater threat in North
Dakota compared to Minnesota. Ahead of the line of
thunderstorms, strong southeast winds with gusts of 30-40kts in
eastern North Dakota, and 25-30kts in northwest Minnesota will
continue this evening. Low level wind shear is also likely this
evening and tonight with even stronger winds just off of the
surface. Westerly winds are forecast on Wednesday with scattered
to numerous thunderstorms, some strong to severe.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-027-
     029-030-039-049-052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-
     029-030-040.

&&

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...FGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1126 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101630-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh-
1126 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon,
night, and into early Wednesday morning. Significant wind gusts
60 to 75 mph or higher will be the main threat, along with a risk
of hail up to golf balls and possibly a tornado.

Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the upper 80s to low
and mid 90s. Those working outside or exercising in directly
sunlight or those sensitive to heat will experience impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-101630-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
1126 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening
into early Wednesday morning. Significant wind gusts 60 to 75 mph
or higher will be the main threat, along with a risk of hail up
to golf balls and possibly a tornado.

Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon climb into the upper 80s to low
and mid 90s. Those working outside or exercising in directly
sunlight or those sensitive to heat will experience impacts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon east of the Red River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.