Tornadoes in Michigan, June 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
105 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening will
pose a locally heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gust threat.

- Heat and humidity builds in Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to reach the low 90s with heat indices
potentially climbing into the upper 90s. A Heat Advisory may
eventually be needed.

- Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday. The greater
severe thunderstorm threat will be late Thursday/Thursday night with
a Slight Risk in place for all of southeast Michigan.

- Not as warm and much less humid Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Warm frontal boundary has largely lifted north of the terminal
corridor ushering in increasing low level moisture supporting MVFR
ceilings. Scattered showers have thus far developed early this
afternoon however satellite obs show partial clearing over SW lower
MI which is advancing into SE MI. Increasing solar insolation is
still expected to allow for scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon lingering into the evening hours. Overall setup carries
low predictability so have maintained inherited tempo-prob 30
framework to highlight the windows for potential storms with minor
tweaks to timing. Soundings advertise an inversion developing
overnight as drier air filters in aloft which should result in a
persistent low VFR-high MVFR cloud layer going into Wednesday
morning.

D21/DTW Convection... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through the evening (18-02Z) with higher coverage favored
for the 18-21Z window.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* Moderate for thunderstorms between 18z and 02z this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 948 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

UPDATE...

The 09.12z KDTX raob sampled a thermodynamic profile that contained
a fair amount of subsaturated air and residual static stability in
the lowest 10.0 kft agl. Progs on isentropic surfaces suggests a
high amount of moisture exists immediately upstream tied to a pseudo
moisture transport axis arcing from the midlevel PV
maximum/convectively augmented low pressure circulation now lifting
through east central Wisconsin. Observationally this tracks with the
line of shower activity immediately at the doorstep aligning to this
moisture axis. Precipitation chances will increase through the
midday period as this spoke pushes to the east or northeast through
the area. No severe weather is anticipated in the immediate now term.

Later this afternoon, anticipated breaks in the clouds should allow
June insolation to steepen lapse rates considerably in the 1000-
850mb layer. Forecast soundings suggest that while CAPE profiles
will remain skinny, equilibrium heights should have no problem
reaching 35.0 kft agl and SBCAPES should reach 1250-1500 J/kg. With
any deep convection and PWATS reaching near 2.0 inches the concern
will be water loading/wet microbursts from cell collapses. Isolated
strong to possibly severe wind gusts may become possible during the
late afternoon and early evening. Something to monitor.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

DISCUSSION...

Mid level low pressure circulation will move across the Upper
Peninsula today and drag a weak frontal zone across southeast
Michigan this afternoon. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are
preceding this front this morning with the lead vorticity and thetae
advection. The low level jet will help carry and an impressive
moisture rich environment into the area today. PWATs from observed
soundings last evening at ILX and DVN came in at 2.01 inches and 1.91
inches respectively. This airmass is arriving locally this morning
along with the low 70s dewpoints being observed lifting into lower
Michigan. The moisture and inbound front will support high PoPs
across the area that increase this morning and carry into early
evening. Favorable diurnal timing will yield CAPE values around 1500-
2000 j/kg helping support stronger updrafts. Limiting factors that
will preclude a mention of a greater severe weather threat will be
weak bulk shear at 20-25 knots and weak lapse rates. The warm cloud
depths and moist adiabatic lapse rates point do point towards a
greater heavy rainfall threat, which in turn brings potential for
strong gusty winds from precip loaded downburst. Guidance continues
to point towards pockets of 1-2 inches or greater of QPF that will be
possible focused between 16Z and 04Z today. Confidence is low as to
where these localized higher totals will possibly fall. Southeast
Michigan remains in General Thunderstorms for the SPC Convective
outlook for today.

Ridging will translate over the central Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday. Increasing southwest flow will carry an even warmer
airmass into the region with 850mb temperatures climbing to around
20C. This leads to an increase in surface temperatures reaching the
low 90s. Add in the persisting humid airmass with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to mid 70s and heat indices should approach 100 degrees
and bring potential for heat headlines. The other concern for
Wednesday will be the severe weather potential, which appears to be
towards the later part of the day as a shortwave arrives on the
heals of the passing ridge. Additional forcing from the increasing
low level jet may be enough to trigger convection in the backdrop of
greater subsidence and capping with the upper ridging. Tail end of
the HREF suggests some convection is able to develop which would
pose mainly a wind and hail threat. Strong instability (2000-3000
j/kg of MLCAPE) and steeper mid level lapse rates will be available,
but shear remains lacking Wednesday evening. A Marginal Risk for all
of southeast Michigan is in place for Wednesday.

A brief lull in precip looks possible Thursday afternoon with
afternoon conditions remaining hot and humid with heat indices again
approaching 100 degree. The greater severe weather threat is also
slated for late Thursday and Thursday night. A strong wave will
cross the western Great Lakes into Ontario and send a cold front
through the region. Timing will be less favorable after peak
heating, but models do offer enough instability with strong wind
fields yielding good shear and more favorable lapse rates. This set
up points towards a cold pool driven MCS along the front that would
arrive locally pending the environment remains favorable. A Slight
Risk for all of southeast Michigan is in place for Thursday.

The cold front sweeping through will drive the hot and humid airmass
off to the east and bring more seasonable conditions for Friday into
the weekend. Lower confidence forecast over the weekend as troughing
holds over the Midwest brings low end precip chances. Afternoon
temperatures by Sunday are forecast to be back down into the 70s and
low 80s.

MARINE...

Weak low pressure tracks across Lower MI today and reaches Lake
Huron late this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area with wind predominantly
out of the southeast near 10 kt. Isolated storms may produce winds
in excess of 34 kt. A warm and unstable air mass will take residence
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Prevailing wind will be out of the west and southwest
with potential for gusts upwards of 20 kt at times, especially over
the shallower, warmer waters of Saginaw Bay, western Lake Erie, and
Lake St. Clair. A cold front passes through the region on Friday and
brings a brief period of drier conditions.

HYDROLOGY...

A moisture rich environment will pose a locally heavy rainfall
threat today. While most ensemble members put QPF amounts generally
within 0.25" to 0.75", the environment will be supportive of pockets
of 1.00" to 2.00" rainfall amounts or greater. Highly variable
amounts can be expected across southeast Michigan. Convective
rainfall rates will have potential to reach 1.00" or greater at
times, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Low
confidence exists as to where these heavier pockets of rainfall
would fall, but the environment will certainly support isolated
flash flooding potential especially if it occurs over any urban
areas or flood prone areas.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....KDK
UPDATE.......CB
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......TF
HYDROLOGY....AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
426 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-100830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
426 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread rain and thunderstorms return Tuesday posing a heavy rain
threat with potential for pockets of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in a
short period of time. Gusty downburst winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A hot and stormy pattern is expected Wednesday and Thursday with
potential for heat indices in the mid 90s or higher. Severe weather
also possible each day with a Marginal Risk for Wednesday and
greater severe potential Thursday evening/Thursday night with a
Slight Risk in place for all of southeast Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will most likely not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-100830-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
426 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Unsettled pattern brings periodic thunderstorm chances to the Great
Lakes again Wednesday and Thursday. A elevated severe weather threat
exists Wednesday and Thursday with Thursday evening/night holding
the greater potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will most likely not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AA