Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 29, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
628 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms early this morning, then additional
  scattered storms later today. All hazards are possible
  Monday.

- Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern
  Red River Valley and west central Minnesota.

- Potential for heat impacts mid-week and into the Fourth of
  July weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Updates this morning include a severe thunderstorm watch for
southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Severe
thunderstorms are currently ongoing in central South Dakota,
and will continue to move rapidly to the northeast this morning.
Wind gusts over 100 mph have been reported with these storms,
and while there is some uncertainty regarding their strength
once they enter southeast North Dakota, it is worth noting that
the environment remains rather supportive of severe
thunderstorms through much of the day.

UPDATE
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Storms that developed over central ND have moved into the Devils
Lake Basin, with one particularly strong supercell tracking
through the area. Currently on a downward swing in strength, but
will continue to monitor as it continues to track northeastward,
exiting off into Canada during the next few hours. Our far
southern counties could see some impacts from a thunderstorm
complex coming out of SD, probably after sunrise. After that
activity passes through, there could be additional thunderstorm
development as low pressure deepens over the Red River Valley
tomorrow.

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Thunderstorms have largely failed to materialize across eastern
ND this evening though a cluster in central ND may eventually
propagate NE into the Devils Lake Basin if they become more
surface based in follow the Bunkers Right vector. Otherwise
storms should remain west of our area until near sunrise when a
cluster/line of thunderstorms will move into our southern
forecast area with wind (potentially significant if you trust
solutions like the HRRR) and large hail as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...Synopsis...

Well established upper trough over the northern High Plains into
southern BC/AB is promoting southwesterly flow aloft over the
Northern Plains into Upper Midwest, with an expansive upper
ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS. This pattern is
promoting moderate to very strong instability over portions of
the Dakotas and Minnesota, along with moderate to strong
available shear to organize thunderstorms should they develop.
This will provide ingredients for severe storms to develop
tonight and/or Monday. More details on these below.

There is potential for heat related impacts Monday afternoon as
very high moisture (upper 70s dew points) combine with
temperatures into the 80s, perhaps low 90s, in the southern Red
River Valley into west-central MN. Later in the week,
additional heat-related impacts are possible. This includes the
Fourth of July weekend.

...Severe storm potential tonight...

Despite favorable instability and shear parameter spacing, there
is a general lack of focused ascent to spark and sustain severe
storms this afternoon. Thus, general trend in our messaging has
been to omit severe risk from this afternoon. During the
overnight, focus for ascent may become more prevalent near
central ND, perhaps allowing some isolated elevated supercells
into northeast ND early tonight. This activity would be capable
of hail to the size of golfball before quickly pushing into
Canada. Couldn't rule out severe storms moving into southeast ND
from SD late tonight / early morning Monday. Should this occur,
very large hail in excess of 2 inches may be possible, as well
as very gusty winds to 80 mph. This scenario is low in
confidence, however.

...Severe storm potential Monday...

While there is a deft in features to help force thunderstorms to
life today, much better forcing will come tonight and Monday as
a surface low pressure deepens within the eastern Dakotas,
propagating northward into Canada by Monday afternoon.
Additionally, richer low level moisture (comprised of surface
dew points in the mid to upper 70s) will likely overspread
portions of eastern ND and northwest into west-central MN. This
is also a result of the jet aloft overspreading these regions,
increasing overall shear.

Latest guidance offers a couple of scenarios that could unfold:

1) Well developed severe storms move out of South Dakota into
eastern ND traveling northeast. These storms would be capable
of large hail (perhaps very large hail in excess of 2 inches)
and gusty winds (perhaps very gusty winds up to 80 mph). These
storms start elevated in altitude and nature, becoming more
surface based into the afternoon. This would eventually
introduce potential for tornadoes among other hazards like large
hail and gusty winds. Given the very unstable airmass and
strong shear, couldn't rule out strong tornadoes (EF-2+).
Thunderstorms begin to exit to the north and east late afternoon
into early evening.

2) Overnight thunderstorms within SD diminish before reaching
ND, allowing a lull period in the morning. This is before
robust thunderstorm development near the surface low that
propagates north through our area by early afternoon. This
activity will likely reach severe thresholds, potentially
significantly severe - especially if storms can remain more
discrete and surface based. This would keep large to very large
hail and risk for tornadoes at the forefront of hazards, with an
attendant isolated damaging wind risk as well. In this
scenario, strong tornadoes again can't be ruled out (EF-2+).

Again, both scenarios hold the risk for tornadoes (potentially
strong). At this time, relatively higher chance for tornadoes
exists near and just ahead of the surface low within northeast
ND to northwest MN during the afternoon.

Uncertainty still exists in overall convective evolution that
would dictate storm mode as well as whether or not storms would
be more surface based or elevated. More elevated storms would
have a hail-forward hazard, whereas surface based storms would
allow for all hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Conditions this morning range from VFR at KDVL to IFR at KBJI.
Today's impacts will depend heavily on convective activity,
which will enter the area starting around 13-14Z.

IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A complex of severe
thunderstorms could impact KFAR this morning, with a chance for
damaging wind gusts associated with this line of severe storms.
Added a TEMPO for this feature due to the intensity of the
ongoing system, as well as the impact chances. This same complex
will move northeast into the vicinity of KBJI if it is able to
stay organized. Although it should be weakening, aviation
impacts are possible between 17Z and 20Z depending on the
forward speed. Amendments will follow as we gauge the
progression of the system.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
the region today, outside of this morning's severe thunderstorm
complex. This could potentially impact most TAF sites this
afternoon as coverage is expected to be scattered. Hazards today
could include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated
tornadoes.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ039-053.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ002-003-024-027>032-040.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch/JR/TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
733 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-023-024-032-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-
038-054-301245-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Western Walsh-
733 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
this morning through late this afternoon. Hazards could include
large hail up to the size of golf balls, damaging wind gusts to 75
mph, and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms return late this week.

Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of
July weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ002-003-022-027>031-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-301245-
Norman-Clay-Mahnomen-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-
733 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this morning
through early afternoon, with hazards including damaging wind
gusts of 75 mph or higher, and large hail.

Heat Advisory in effect Monday: Noon to 8pm for the Southern
Red River Valley and west central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms return late this week.

Potential for heat impacts next week, including the Fourth of
July weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
456 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

NDZ008-016-291030-
Pembina ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-
456 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL WALSH AND SOUTHERN
PEMBINA COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM CDT...

At 455 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crystal, or 18 miles northwest of Grafton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cavalier, Drayton, St. Thomas, Hoople, Crystal, Hensel, and Hamilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4884 9717 4882 9719 4881 9716 4879 9717
      4878 9715 4875 9716 4875 9714 4873 9713
      4857 9717 4856 9718 4855 9717 4848 9742
      4847 9779 4876 9786 4889 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 254DEG 28KT 4864 9764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lynch