The week leading up to the Fourth of July brought a punishing, multi-day stretch of extreme heat to the Mid-South. A massive mid-level ridge of high pressure parked itself directly over the Tennessee River Valley, creating a persistent heat dome over the entire Mid-South.
Every event with a place to put it; 20 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
The week leading up to the Fourth of July brought a punishing, multi-day stretch of extreme heat to the Mid-South. A massive mid-level ridge of high pressure parked itself directly over the Tennessee River Valley, creating a persistent heat dome over the entire Mid-South. Under this stagnant high-pressure system, daytime heating worked in tandem with tropical moisture surging up from the Gulf. This combination created dangerously muggy air, pushing dew points into the mid-to-upper 70s and occasionally near 80 F making the atmosphere feel as suffocating as it was hot.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 11:08 AM CST, 52 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
- Dangerous and oppressive heat is expected this week with heat
index values ranging between 105 to 109 degrees into Tuesday.
Some locations may reach or exceed 110 degrees by the middle to
end of this week.
- Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday, with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and low temperatures only
cooling to the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
A hot and humid day is occurring across the Mid-South as
temperatures are already approaching 90 degrees with surface
dewpoints in the 70s. Visible satellite trends show some
diurnally based cumulus developing with sunny to mostly sunny
skies prevailing across the area.
A 595 dm upper-level ridge currently centered over portions of
the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys will bring prolonged
very hot temperatures in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees
this week. A combination of these very hot temperatures and high
surface dewpoints in the middle 70s will result in heat index
values ranging from 105 to 109 degrees through Tuesday. Dry
weather is also expected to persist through Tuesday.
Short-term model trends suggest moisture will increase for the
latter half of the week as low-level moisture on the southern
periphery of the ridge drifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
This will bring a low chance (15-30%) of afternoon and evening
pulse-type showers and thunderstorms driven by peak heating. Any
convective activity will only bring a temporary relief to the
dangerous and oppressive heat.
Uncertainty still remains with the potential for some locations
reaching Extreme Heat Warning criteria for the latter half of the
week. Latest guidance has trended slightly cooler with high
temperatures which would keep most if not all of the area in
advisory criteria. Thus, in coordination with surrounding offices
decided to keep the Extreme Heat Watch in effect for the time
being and reevaluate headlines over the next 24 hours. Convective
chances into the Fourth of July weekend will increase modestly as
the high pushes east to the Mid-Atlantic states.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Gusty southwest winds will continue through the evening hours
with the greatest gust potential at JBR. Otherwise, an upper
level ridge will keep VFR conditions over the Mid-South through
the end of the period.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
No major fire danger concerns are anticipated this upcoming week
as minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent.
The next chance for any measurable precipitation will not arrive
until the middle to latter half of the week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for MOZ113-115.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001>017-020>024.
Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Heat Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
20 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (103) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (103) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (103) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (103) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (107F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (108F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (104F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (105F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (106F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (106F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (105F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (105F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (105F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
The daytime hours maximum heat index was within the triple digits (108F) combined with limited cooling at night with an overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1355199, 1355202, 1355208, 1355211, 1355213, 1355215, 1355220, 1355224, 1355226, 1355227, 1355332, 1355333, 1355334, 1355335, 1355337, 1355339, 1355340, 1355341, 1355342, 1355343.