Hail in Minnesota, June 19, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms with a cold/occluded front
  today, with the best thunderstorm coverage along and south of
  the US Hwy 2 corridor.

- There is a 5 to 15% chance of strong to severe storms this
  afternoon and evening, with the best potential along and south
  of a Walker, MN, to Hayward, WI, line. Main hazard would be
  hail up to 1 inch in diameter, with a secondary hazard of
  damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Additional widely scattered showers on Saturday, with the best
  coverage and potential for a few isolated, non-severe storms
  Saturday afternoon in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

- Temperatures generally slightly below normal with highs in the
  mid 60s to mid 70s and low temperatures in the 40s to around
  50F most nights through the middle of next week. For
  comparison, normal highs are mid to upper 70s and normal lows
  are upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Rest of Today into Tonight:

Regional radar imagery and surface observations show scattered
showers across much of north-central and NE MN early this
afternoon that is slowly expanding east into the MN Arrowhead
and NW WI. Some clearing developed across west-central MN behind
this initial round of rain/cloud cover and along/ahead of the
surface cold/occluded front near the eastern ND/western MN
border. This has allowed an area of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to
develop and initiate scattered storm development in
western/west-central MN. Scattered showers and storms will move
east into much of the Northland within the next 1-2 hours this
afternoon and gradually move southeast through the evening. Best
coverage of thunderstorms would be along and south of US Hwy 2.
In conjunction with forcing for ascent associated with the
mid/upper-level trough moving into the area, the aforementioned
instability moving into the Brainerd Lakes east into inland NW
WI, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and effective
shear of 20 to locally 30 kt will favor the development of some
isolated strong to severe storm potential mainly along and south
of a Walker, MN, to Hayward, WI, line. The hazards with the
strongest storms would be wind gusts up to 50 mph, hail up to 1"
in size, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.
Thunderstorm intensity wanes towards sunset, so the window of
strong to severe storm potential is mainly in the 2 PM - 8 PM
timeframe, with storms exiting NW WI late this evening.
Precipitation then ends west to east in the evening to overnight
hours tonight, with some potential for fog development tonight
as and after the rainfall departs. Additional rainfall amounts
between 0.2-0.5" are expected for most of the Northland, though
slightly less in the Arrowhead. Any locations that see one or
several storms move overhead could see localized rainfall
amounts of 0.5-1".

High temperatures generally top out in the 60s to around 70F
this afternoon due to the rain and cloud cover, and then fall
into the 40s to around 50F tonight.

This Weekend:

The surface low pushes through northwestern Ontario on Saturday,
but does bring a weak secondary cold front through the Northland
on Saturday with it. This front, combined with steep low-level
lapse rates and cold advection should lead to additional widely
scattered diurnal shower development for much of Saturday into
Saturday evening. Some small instability of 100-200 J/kg of
MLCAPE could also support a few isolated, non-severe storms
Saturday afternoon into early evening mainly along and northeast
of the Iron Range to Twin Ports and in NW WI. A drier air mass
and surface high pressure move in for Sunday, keeping conditions
rain-free.

Temperatures warm a few degrees for this weekend with highs into
the mid 60s to mid 70s with a mix of clouds and sun on Saturday
and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Sunday. Northeast
winds on Sunday should produce slightly cooler temperatures near
Lake Superior and the Twin Ports.

Early - Mid Next Week:

Ensemble and deterministic mid-range model guidance continues to
have good agreement in the pattern aloft for early to mid next
week as a mid/upper-level trough currently near the coast of
British Columbia slides east/southeast through southern
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Upper Midwest through the first
half of next week. An associated low pressure system also moves
through during the same timeframe, with a cold front extending
south through the High Plains on Monday, to western MN by
Tuesday, and through our region along with the surface low
pressure late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this system,
northeast surface winds remain likely on Monday before becoming
southerly on Tuesday. Temperatures remain pretty consistent in
this timeframe in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with slightly cooler
temperatures near Lake Superior. Warm advection/isentropic
ascent ahead of this front should bring in widespread showers
and embedded storms from west to east on Tuesday, then along and
ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Still
early regarding assessment of strong or severe storm potential,
including potential, hazards, and favored locations, but more
general guidance during this timeframe does paint fairly weak
0-6 km bulk shear and marginal instability late Tuesday, so for
now expect mainly weaker storms, but further assessment will be
needed as we get closer to early next week. Cyclonic flow
behind the departing low/front on Wednesday would also support
lingering scattered shower and storm chances.

Late Next Week and Weekend:

Models have come into some loose agreement on a northwest flow
pattern aloft for late next week, and then some variation of
shortwave mid-level ridging over the Upper Midwest sometime
next weekend. This would favor slightly low-end diurnal shower
and storm chances for the second half of next week and a gradual
warming trend back towards normal temperatures towards next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered showers are moving through the Northland as of early
this afternoon, with mainly VFR conditions but occasional MVFR
visibilities in the showers. There has been some partial
clearing in cloud cover across western Minnesota where scattered
storms are now developing. This additional area of scattered
showers and storms will slide east into northeast Minnesota and
expand in coverage this afternoon into early evening and
northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon through mid-evening.
Some of these storms could become strong to severe, particularly
at BRD east to HYR with hail up to the size of quarters (1
inch), erratic wind gusts up to 40-50 kt, locally heavy
downpours, and frequent lightning as the hazards. Amendments
will likely be needed to account for storm arrival and specific
hazards as they approach the various terminals. Also expect MVFR
to IFR conditions with any thunderstorms that move directly over
a terminal. Wind gusts will be south to southwest ahead of the
approaching cold front at around 10 kts, then veer westerly to
northwesterly behind the front starting later this afternoon and
continuing out of the northwest through Saturday.

Expect some fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight at DLH, HIB,
and HYR behind the exiting rain, though fog also can't be ruled
out at BRD and INL either (20-30% chance). Otherwise, a return
to VFR conditions are expected Saturday morning, with additional
widely scattered diurnal showers for much of northeast Minnesota
and Northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Southwesterly winds today at 5 to 15 kts, with some gusts of 15
to 20 kts from Grand Marais to Grand Portage this afternoon.
Winds become westerly at 5 to 10 kts tonight. Scattered showers
and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible again during the
afternoon and evening hours in the western arm of Lake Superior
and the South Shore, with the best chance for any thunderstorms
near the Twin Ports where small hail and gusts to 30-40 kts
would be possible in the strongest storms. Southwest winds
develop again for Saturday at around 10 kts or less and then
turn northeast on Sunday at around 10 kts or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered to widespread showers and storms continue this
afternoon and evening along and ahead of an approaching
cold/occluded front. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.2-0.5"
expected, though slightly less in the Arrowhead. Areas that see
storms could see localized amounts between 0.5-1". Hail up to
1", wind gusts to 50-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy downpours are the hazards with the strongest storms, with
best potential along and south of a Walker, MN, to Hayward, WI,
line. Min RH is once again expected to be at or above 40%
this afternoon, being lowest in the Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin before the rain moves in.

The trend for has been to likely seeing isolated to widely
scattered daytime showers develop for the Iron Range to Twin
Ports and areas north in northeast Minnesota, and also in
northwest Wisconsin. Can't rule out a few stray, non-severe
storms in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon
to early evening, either. Saturday, with chances (20-40%) of a
shower or storm limited to the tip of the Arrowhead. RH values
are currently forecast to dip to 40-50% across the area on
Saturday. Winds will also be lighter into the weekend at 5 to
15 mph out of the northwest on Saturday and north to northeast
on Sunday, with daytime winds strongest in the afternoon both
days. Temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s through
Saturday then warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Sunday
into next week for areas away from the immediate Lake Superior
vicinity. Lower min RH of 30-40% is forecast for Sunday and
Monday before increasing Tuesday into mid-week as another round
of showers and storms moves into the Upper Midwest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201915-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible south of
Highway 2 with hail up to 1 inch in diameter and winds to 60 mph
as the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-201915-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There are 20 to 40 percent chances of non-severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening, mainly in the western arm of Lake
Superior.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Additional chances for non-severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

NLy

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

MNZ025-033>036-192300-
North Cass-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-
Including the cities of Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City,
and Aitkin
258 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND BRIEF WEAK TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across central Minnesota.
There have been reports of funnel clouds and a brief tornado
touchdown in Hubbard County this afternoon. Conditions are
favorable for funnel clouds and potentially a few weak tornadoes
with any thunderstorm that develops. These types of funnel clouds
are usually short lived, however, they can and occasionally do
touch the ground and cause minor damage. Therefore, if you see a
funnel cloud, take cover immediately.

Rothstein

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Hail             1 NNW Leader            46.53N 94.66W
06/19/2026  E0.50 Inch       Cass               MN   Trained Spotter

            Report given while hail is falling.

&&