NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 1:03 AM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 1:03 AM CST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
203 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A line of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
moves northeast through the Northland early to mid-morning
today. Threats include damaging wind gusts to 60-70 mph, small
hail, heavy rain rates, and perhaps an isolated tornado.
- A second round of storms develops this afternoon and evening,
with numerous severe storms possible. All severe hazards are
possible, including large to very large hail, damaging wind
gusts, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall.
- Hot and humid conditions continue today away from Lake
Superior, where high temperatures should be in the 80s with
dew points in the 60s to low 70s. Northwest Wisconsin may need
a Heat Advisory, but cloud cover and storms may mitigate this
need.
- Additional, non-severe showers and storms on Thursday with
cooling temperatures into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
The forecast continues to remain largely on track for two rounds
of storms today, one early to mid-morning and another this
afternoon and evening. Regional radar imagery shows a broken
line of strong to severe storms extending from southeast
Manitoba through the ND/SD/MN border and into southwest
Minnesota. These storms have had several reports of 60-80 mph
wind gusts and have access to an ample pool of instability and
established cold pool should keep the line going near current
strength for at least the next few hours. Timing of the current
storm motion combined with high-resolution model depictions
bring the SW MN portion of the line of storms into the Brainerd
Lakes counties between 3 AM - 4 AM, then quickly moving
northeast across the Northland through the 8 AM - 10 AM
timeframe before exiting to our north and east. There is
expectation for the line of storms to gradually weaken as it
moves across the Northland as both effective shear and 0-3 km
shear is fairly marginal (20-30 kt), but the threat remains for
at least initial 60-70 mph wind gusts, isolated hail to quarter
size, and perhaps an embedded tornado in any northeast oriented
surge in the line.
There is some question as to how quickly the morning cloud cover
and showers/storms can exit the Northland, which would play a
factor regarding the amount of daytime heating to boost
instability and location/coverage of storms. Hi-res model
depictions still show some variation in exactly where and when
storms will form in the Northland, but general agreement is for
the best potential for the most intense storms to form in the
I-35 corridor to NW WI in the afternoon, but eventually
scattered storms form across the Northland as the capping
inversion breaks and the strong forcing for ascent associated
with the mid/upper-level trough moves overhead. MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg, high downdraft CAPE, decent mid-level lapse
rates of 6-7 C/km, and even a Significant Tornado Parameter of
1-2 will all be present in this environment. The best window of
time for severe storms would be in the 2 PM - 8 PM timeframe,
but strong to severe storms are possible in the 1 PM - 10 PM
timeframe. Expect initial storm development to be on the
discrete side with supercells that would be capable of producing
very large hail (up to 2 inches), tornadoes (some strong tornado
potential in northwest Wisconsin), and damaging wind gusts of
60-70 mph. Storms eventually grow upscale into a more linear
mode in the evening, with the potential for localized 70-80 mph
wind gusts with the line in the I-35 corridor, Twin Ports and
NW WI. These storms will also be accompanied by high rain rates,
with good potential for widespread 0.5-1" of rain, and pockets
of 2-3" that could lead to some ponding of water. No widespread
flooding or flash flooding is expected at this time. Showers and
storms exit late this evening and overnight to our east.
Outside of storms, today will also see dense fog near Lake
Superior during the morning, but the morning line of storms
could act to reduce the fog scope over land. Hot and humid
conditions also continue today, with high temperatures in the
80s away form Lake Superior, and dewpoints in the 60s to low
70s. Inland NW WI may need a Heat Advisory this afternoon, but
morning cloud cover and showers/storms as well as afternoon
convection may limit this risk.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
THIS EVENING:
A warm front is slowly lifting over north-central to northwest MN
this afternoon, allowing for very moist and hot air to overcome the
Northland. Heat Advisories remain in effect for portions of the area
where the worst of the heat and humidity is expected. While wind
shear is lacking along this warm front, instability is plentiful
with MUCAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg. This has led to an agitated
cumulus field with some convective attempts already early this
afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some showers and
thunderstorms are possible for Koochiching County between now and
8pm. With that much instability, there is the potential than an
isolated storm could produce severe hail or wind. However, there is
also the potential that this warm front pushes further north and
makes any storms Canada's problem.
Otherwise, expect dense fog over Lake Superior to push back inland
this evening and overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
areas along the North Shore and in the Twin Ports for the areas with
the best chance of seeing visibilities drop below a quarter mile
tonight.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into
our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low
should traipse across the Dakotas today, expected to kick off a line
of storms that accelerate away from the cold front and into the
Northland sometime after midnight tonight. There is some significant
variation on timing. We could see them getting in the Brainerd Lakes
as early as 1-2am, or as late as 3-5am. Severe storm potential along
this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and shear, and a strong
mid level jet. There is the potential that this line could still be
severe as it gets into our area, most likely an elevated wind and
hail threat. If storms are able to stay surface based all the way
into our area, there is a very slim tornado threat for the Brainerd
Lakes to far NW Koochiching County.
Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area,
buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the
Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered
to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all
hazards as storms unzip along the cold front midday to early
afternoon and then push east. However, there is some uncertainty
with this setup, as lingering precipitation and convection Wednesday
morning could have deleterious effects on an afternoon severe
threat. High-res guidance is a bit of a mess when it comes to
figuring out where and when storms might affect the area. The best
chance for intense severe storms is over the I-35 corridor and into
NW WI, but the entire area could see scattered severe storms at
times with such a supportive environment. The best timing for severe
storms to develop and push east is between 2-7pm on Wednesday, but
there could be a stray storm possible outside of that range.
Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a
widespread 0.5-1". There could be some locally higher amounts of 2-
4" that briefing lead to some ponding of water, but no widespread
flooding is expected at this time.
Despite a very cold, stable airmass over Lake Superior, even those
along the coastline should be prepared for severe storms tomorrow.
First, the lake breeze is NOT expected to make it very far inland.
While this could dampen the damaging wind threat if storms aren't
too strong, large hail can crash through a the stable layer without
any issue. Additionally, the lake breeze boundary can locally
increase SRH which can intensify rotation and increase tornado
potential.
Temperatures Wednesday ahead of any storms will be hot, but have
trended down slightly. Expect afternoon highs to be in the 80s away
from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew points in the 60s and 70s will
make for a very sticky heat. Heat Advisories may be needed
Wednesday for the I-35 corridor and east.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
Some additional wrap around precipitation may combine with a low
pressure system to our south to produce additional showers and a few
non-severe thunderstorms Thursday, along with relatively cooler
temperatures. We stay in a zonal flow pattern into the weekend,
stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains
moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at
time, but nothing significant is expected.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Mostly VFR conditions to start aside from expanding dense fog
and low stratus at DLH and near Lake Superior. A line of
severe thunderstorms approaching the western Minnesota border
will continue propagating northeast, approaching BRD first
around 08Z-09Z, then moving northeast across the remaining
terminals early to mid morning. For DLH, these thunderstorms
may improve visibility as they move through. Elsewhere, expect reduced
ceilings and visibilities as the storms move through. These
storms may retain their severe strength as they move into
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with best
potential at BRD and INL, but will gradually weaken with
northeast extent. Have tried to time out the peak strong to
severe storm window with TEMPO groups. Amendments are likely.
Also expect LLWS at DLH/HIB/INL/BRD through early morning. Gusty
south to southeast winds build across the area for today.
A second round of severe thunderstorms is expected to develop
Wednesday afternoon, but exact locations and coverage will
depend on how fast showers and storms and clouds from morning
convection exit the area. Threats with the second round of
storms include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and potentially
a few tornadoes, in addition to heavy rain.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Northeast winds continue today. Some afternoon gusts of 10-15
knots are possible at the head of the lake today, as well as
15-20 knots in parts of the North Shore this afternoon.. Patchy
to widespread areas of dense fog are likely to continue today,
with a Marine Dense Fog Advisory remaining in effect. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to return early this morning with
scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon and
evening. Some storms could become severe, with damaging winds
(best chance closest to shore), large hail, and frequent
lightning. Overnight into Thursday, winds becoming southwesterly
with some stronger gusts approaching 20-25 knots at times,
mainly in the Outer Apostles and portions of the North Shore.
Hazardous conditions for small craft may be possible, but
confidence was not high enough to issue with this update.
Additional rain showers are possible on Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
More thunderstorms return early this morning and again this
afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front moving
from west to east. Scattered severe storms with 60-70 mph wind
gusts and isolated 1 inch hail are possible with the morning
round. Scattered to numerous severe storms are also possible
this afternoon and evening, with all hazards possible in these
severe storms, including large to very hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes. Good rainfall is expected, with
widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.5-1.0"+ likely. Scattered
showers Thursday, and then slowly drying out into the weekend.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021-
037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
140>148-150.
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142.
&&
UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein