Storms moved across the area on the evening of the 30th into the early morning hours of the 31st, producing a couple rounds of heavy rain and several reports of accumulating hail, with hailstones as large as ping pong balls.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Storms moved across the area on the evening of the 30th into the early morning hours of the 31st, producing a couple rounds of heavy rain and several reports of accumulating hail, with hailstones as large as ping pong balls.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 30, 7:00 PM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 800 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... An active early spring week ahead: - Thunderstorm probabilities tonight and Tuesday across northern Lower. Severe thunderstorm threat?? - Precipitation type issues across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt tonight/Tuesday? - Significant surge of warm air and moisture aloft and reinforced cold air in the boundary layer to set up another wintry mess post- April Fool's Day. - Another round of precipitation next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Apologies for the mixed case in the first part below: we had part of our system rebooted while typing this and the discussion was saved in ALL CAPS. Don't have time to re-type so enjoy the "old school" feel of days gone by when text products WOULD SHOUT AT YOU. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS... SPLIT TROUGHING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA/EASTERN PACIFIC AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. 130KT JET AXIS LIES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE UPPER LAKES (LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (+8C AT 850MB) POKING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN). RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES FROM A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC...WESTWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION/ NORTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. RETURN FLOW STARTING TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH GETS KICKED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY...AND INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY THE "KICKER" LOW...EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY SEND WARMER AIR UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES..AT LEAST ALOFT (MORE ON THAT BELOW). FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SINK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (WITH A FEW FRONTAL WAVES RIPPLING ALONG IT) BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WINS OUT AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THEN...STOP IF YOU'VE HEARD THIS BEFORE... SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS THAT SENDS A SURFACE LOW TOWARD MICHIGAN THURSDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TRYING TO MAINTAIN A COLDER SURFACE LAYER WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH SETS UP A POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE MESS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT (AT LEAST). THE DETAILS WILL LIE IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. Primary Forecast Concerns: Thunderstorm probabilities tonight and Tuesday across northern Lower. Severe thunderstorm threat??: Moisture is advecting northward into Iowa/Illinois toward the surface front running from southeast South Dakota/southern Minnesota/central Wisconsin. Despite steep mid level lapse rates still a good bit of capping to be overcome. Of more interest to northern Michigan will be the potential for some elevated convection north of the front with a surge of low level theta-e later this evening...most likely along- south of the M-32 corridor. Potentially a decent amount of MUCAPE (approaching 1000J/kg) and some decent mid level shear above the stable boundary layer so some potential for severe hail. Wind threat unlikely unless can get some "bounce" off the stable frontal layer and induce some gravity waves. May see a break in the precipitation Tuesday morning with the potential for another round of precipitation across northern Lower with some elevated thunder along the southern periphery of the precipitation (think south of M- 32). Convective parameter space not changed much from tonight... still north of the surface boundary with surface based instability (and greater severe threat across southern Lower) and more elevated instability with still a good bit of effective shear across southern portions of the forecast area. So a marginal severe risk still warranted. Expected precipitation and ongoing snowmelt is expected to push river levels upward over the coming days. Manistee River near Sherman in Wexford county forecast to go above flood stage later Tuesday; but for now have just issued a Flood Watch for this as the observed stage continues to lag the forecast hydrograph. Precipitation type issues across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt tonight/Tuesday?: East-west band of precipitation along the Canadian border of North Dakota/Minnesota at mid afternoon...driven largely by frontogenesis and aided by right entrance region jet forcing. Do anticipate an increase in precipitation coverage later this evening across eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt counties...likely coming to an end after midnight as forcing shifts east. Thermodynamic issues tonight in the form of an elevated warm layer and marginal surface temperatures. Current temperatures across eastern Upper in the mid 40s...45-55F across the Tip of the Mitt counties...with dew points in the mid-upper 20s. So a bit of room for evaporative cooling...though at the same time raw guidance temperatures are lagging reality so think most areas will be above freezing...could be close in a few spots for freezing rain/drizzle or even a bit of snow. Highest p-type probabilities for tonight are for rain with probabilities for freezing rain < 20%. There will be another round of precipitation developing later Tuesday morning as the main short wave trough passes north of Lake Superior...again surface temperatures will still be marginal for a freezing rain threat. Significant surge of warm air and moisture aloft and reinforced cold air in the boundary layer to set up another wintry mess post-April Fool's Day: This will be interesting since our last two ice events (28-30 March 2025/15-16 March 2026) had guidance too far north/too aggressive in trying to pull warm boundary layer air up into northern Michigan. Seeing the same trends here except in the AI guidance which have a farther south surface low track (and was correctly farther south in the 15-16 March event). Big surge of moisture forecast to get pulled up into the Great Lakes Thursday with potentially greater than +3 sigma standardized precipitable water anomalies which would be near records for early April. Strong warm advection/frontal and jet forcing will work on this moisture flux to produce a potentially significant precipitation event just from a quantitative standpoint (currently in the Day 4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook). This makes the p-type forecast have even greater importance since we are talking about the likelihood of 1 to 2 inches of liquid precipitation. Current forecast trends based on the idea of a push of mostly snow into the forecast area from south to north Wednesday night... transitioning toward more liquid/freezing precipitation on Thursday...then possibly going to all rain Thursday night provided the surface warm air arrives (a forecast which failed miserably in our last two ice events so color me skeptical three days out). A farther south track would give more snow to Upper Michigan and the Tip of the Mitt and the potential for more icing farther south (again stop me if you've seen this scenario play out before). Snow-to-liquid ratios are likely to be in the cement mixer category (hard to move/hard to drive through). So while everyone wants answers now...need to be more pragmatic here as small shifts in the location of initial lee cyclogenesis and the low level thermal gradient will result in big forecast changes down the road. Current forecast will feature potential watch criteria snowfall across eastern Upper through Thursday afternoon (which is as far out as we forecast QPF locally though precipitation will continue through Thursday night)...with the potential for 0.25 inch ice accumulations across northern Lower (especially across the higher terrain)...along with the possibility of icing getting north of the Bridge as well just given the probabilistic space. Will be trending the messaging on this a bit harder. Another round of precipitation next weekend: As Thursday's system departs another arrives possibly as early as Friday night with the potential for starting as a wintry mix before a transition to more rain Saturday. But given everything above that is the least of our concerns for the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 VFR conditions to start, with shower and thunderstorm chances beginning between 03 to 06Z, lingering through portions of the night. CIGs steadily lower, with MVFR to IFR later tonight through Tuesday. Another round of showers and storms possible midday Tuesday through the afternoon hours (PROB30s) with continued CIGs between BKN005-010. VSBYs lower in any heavier rain and BR, with 2-4SM at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && DISCUSSION...JPB AVIATION...JLD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-311100- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across northern Lower, some stronger storms will be possible south of the M-32 corridor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday across northern Lower, some stronger storms will be possible south of the M-72 corridor. A messy wintry mix of precipitation, including the potential for accumulating snow and ice, is possible Wednesday night through Thursday night across parts of northern Michigan. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-311100- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. JPB
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1103 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
MIZ027-033-310330-
Kalkaska MI-Missaukee MI-
1103 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KALKASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...
At 1103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morey, or near Lake City, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Sharon, Moorestown, Morey, Jennings, Stittsville, and
Smithville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4436 8534 4447 8533 4471 8485 4442 8485
4432 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 241DEG 41KT 4441 8525
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
JLDThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:20 UTC.
13 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail from half-inch up to penny size near Traverse City West Senior High in Traverse City, MI.
Penny sized hail reported on M-88 north of Bellaire.
Penny size hail near Lake City in Missaukee county.
Hail up to the size of nickels near McBain in southwestern Missaukee county.
Photo of hail up to around penny size near Bear Lake, MI.
Photo from social media of hail up to ping-pong ball size in Mesick. Additional reports from the Mesick area of accumulating hail mixed with large hailstones.
Photo of several quarter sized hailstones near the intersection of north 25 Rd and west 18 1/2 Rd east of Mesick.
Quarter sized hail fell again in the Lake City area.
Accumulating hail up to the size of pennies.
A second round brought accumulating hail of around the size of quarters.
Accumulating quarter size hail, with hailstones up to the size of half-dollars.
Trained spotter reported accumulating hail up to 0.80 inches in diameter.
Hail up to the size of nickels in the Comins/Fairview area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1328561, 1328579, 1328576, 1328575, 1328583, 1328589, 1328563, 1328577, 1328594, 1328584, 1328562, 1328580, 1328591.