Hail in Michigan, June 16, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
728 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and early
evening. Isolated storms may be strong to severe.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday evening
and Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall is likely which may lead to
localized flooding, especially in urban areas. The potential also
exists for severe weather, mainly south of I-94.

- Slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week
and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the morning hours with
residual dry flow from the high pressure system to the south and
east. Well mixed boundary layer conditions with southwest winds 10
to 20 knots at midday. Prefrontal moisture advection will then
result in isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
after 19z this afternoon. An additional line of thunderstorms will be
possible along a cold front between 23-03 with IFR visibility
restrictions.

D21/DTW Convection... A potential for thunderstorm exists after 19z
this afternoon with a potential for strong to severe between 21-02z
this evening.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft this afternoon.

* Moderate for thunderstorms after 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

DISCUSSION...

Dry and cool conditions this morning give way to a slight increase
in humidity and warmth compared to yesterday as an upstream low
pressure system advects higher theta-e air in on a breezy southwest
wind. An uncapped profile allows for convection to ensue early this
afternoon as forcing for ascent increases in advance of the mid-
level shortwave arriving from the west. A prefrontal trough appears
to be a focus for convection to organize into a broken line in the
19 to 23z window, then the cold front offers a second round of
convection between 23 and 04z tonight. Wind shear through the lowest
6 km is initially weak at around 20 kt but increases to around 30
kt, and MLCAPE is not particularly noteworthy around 1000 J/kg or
less. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with
inverted-V soundings and mid-level dry air supportive of wind gusts
of 40 to 60 mph as the most probable threat.

A vigorous wave diving out of the mean troughing centered over
Manitoba will drive a powerful low across the Great Lakes Wednesday
night. Several solutions show a 500mb low closing off over
Wisconsin, producing a sub-990mb surface low that is analyzed 4 to 5
standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Tremendous
mass adjustment and lift will occur ahead of this wave with
widespread rainfall spreading in late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, followed by gusty winds Thursday. The main threats
with this system appear to be heavy rainfall and flooding as well as
damaging wind gusts. Deep moisture transport on the nose of the 60+
kt LLJ and through the column will quickly send PWAT to the 1.50 to
2.00" range and warm cloud layer depth to 12 kft, making for
efficient rainfall production in any convection. Fast storm motion
will be a limiting factor, but intense fgen along the W-E oriented
elevated warm front will still support a corridor of heavy rainfall
across the area. The most likely outcome will be rainfall totals
ranging between 1 and 2 inches for much of SE MI, but upper tails of
ensemble QPF guidance and even 16.00z REFS LPMM output hint at
potential for localized totals in excess of 3 inches. Most of this
is expected to fall between 8pm and 2am.

Will need to monitor the mesoscale environment late Wednesday night
closely, as very strong forcing and wind shear will be in place. The
limiting factor for severe weather will be instability given moist
adiabatic lapse rates and static stability introduced by the feed of
warm air at 850mb. Backed flow, high 0-1km SRH, and low LCL heights
in the vicinity does bring concern for tornadoes if the warm front
lifts northward into the southern counties. Damaging wind gusts
would also be likely given the low-level kinematics. Still plenty of
finer detail to gather from additional hi-res runs today and
tonight, but initial runs this morning look to support heavy
convection south of the state line that may suppress the surface
front south. Available ML guidance, with confirmation from the day 2
SPC outlook, supports the conditional threat for severe weather
mainly south of I-94, but possibly up to the I-69 corridor.

The longwave trough axis slowly passes overhead from Thursday into
Friday night, maintaining cool weather for mid June standards.
Chances for scattered afternoon showers and storms exist both days
as daytime heating capitalizes on steep lapse rates and continued
cyclonic flow. Saturday may be an opportunity for drier conditions
as the jet stream lifts north and upper confluence gains traction,
but additional PVA within the NW flow does still present a low-end
chance for another diurnal flare-up of isolated, weak convection.
Forecast confidence decreases considerably by Sunday and Monday as
there will be multiple wave interactions in the vicinity. Overall,
it does look favorable for a more active pattern to continue into
next week.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Saginaw Bay and The Thumb
nearshore for gusty winds and elevated waves. Drier conditions wane
this afternoon with the arrival of a low pressure system and it's
attendant cold front, leading to showers and thunderstorms for the
central waterways later today. Convection should hold-off until
after 1 PM and generally conclude before midnight as rainfall works
from west to east. A brief break in activity ensues Wednesday as
shortwave ridging quickly passes over the region, followed by a
secondary stronger system Wednesday night into Thursday. More
intense convection is possible with the second system, capable of
damaging winds, and to a lesser extent, waterspouts and large hail.
Seasonably strong gradient (non-thunderstorm) winds will accompany
the low with prevailing speeds climbing above 25 knots as the center
of the low approaches Lake Huron late Wednesday night. Gusts to
gales are probable for some portion of The Lakes Wednesday night
into Thursday, after shallow mixing profiles deepen slightly, and 40-
50 knot flow materializes within the lowest 3 kft. Winds decline a
bit and organize out of the west Thursday evening through Saturday,
accompanied by additional chances for showers.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this
afternoon and evening. Most areas will receive a quarter inch or
less of rainfall, and flooding is not likely today.

A seasonably strong low pressure system will then arrive late
Wednesday, producing widespread rainfall with numerous heavy
thunderstorms through Wednesday night. Rainfall totals ranging
between 1 and 2 inches are likely for much of SE MI, and isolated
areas may receive over 3 inches. Most of this rainfall is expected
to occur in 6 hours or less, currently centered between 8pm and 2am.
This rainfall may pose a flash flooding threat, mainly in urban
areas, and rises on rivers and streams can be expected.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-
     441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
423 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
423 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening
ahead of a weak cold front. Isolated severe storms will be possible,
with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Storm motion will be
southwest to northeast at 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A strong low pressure system tracks across Lower MI Wednesday night,
bringing heavy rainfall and potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are forecast for much
of the area, and localized areas could receive over 3 inches which
brings potential for flooding. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes are also possible across southern lower MI. Storm motion
will be west to east at 65 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-170830-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
423 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore
waters from Saginaw Bay to Harbor Beach today. Refer to the latest
marine weather message and forecast for details.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and
evening ahead of a weak cold front. Isolated severe storms will be
possible, with wind gusts in excess of 34 kt the primary threat.
Storm motion will be southwest to northeast at 25 kt.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A strong low pressure system tracks across Lower MI Wednesday night,
bringing heavy rainfall and potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Wind gusts in excess of 34 kt and isolated
waterspouts are possible, mainly over western Lake Erie. Storm motion
will be west to east at 60 kt. Gusty winds in excess of 30 kt are
forecast early Thursday as this system departs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

TF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MIZ069-161715-
Oakland MI-
1235 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OAKLAND COUNTY THROUGH
115 PM EDT...

At 1234 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Milford, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pontiac, Milford, Clarkston, Auburn Hills, Lake Angelus, Waterford,
Davisburg, White Lake, and Rose Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4267 8321 4257 8367 4264 8368 4270 8368
      4287 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 242DEG 21KT 4266 8359

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1239 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MIZ068-161715-
Livingston MI-
1239 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

At 1239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brighton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hartland, Brighton, Chilson, and Island Lake State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4248 8386 4258 8392 4276 8369 4249 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 234DEG 14KT 4258 8379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Behnke