What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 2:24 PM EST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Showers and storms return this evening, with some storms potentially becoming strong to severe. 2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe storms. 3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 22, 2:24 PM EST, 4 hours 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
324 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
for the northern half of the forecast area through this evening,
with a southward expansion possible later.
Increased chance in heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms
Tuesday as remnants of an MCV moves across the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return this evening, with some storms
potentially becoming strong to severe.
2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon
into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated
strong to severe storms.
3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms return this evening, with some
storms potentially becoming strong to severe.
Latest wx analysis shows a warm front lifted through the area this
morning, now residing north of the Commonwealth. This front has
helped temperatures get to the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Breezy southerly winds have increased
this afternoon behind the front due to a well-mixed profile, with
gusts up to 30 mph. This evening, a cold front will approach the
area, providing a forcing mechanism for shower and storm
development. With the warm dewpoints, ample amounts of instability
with MLCAPE values around ~1500 J/kg are presently noted. Better
shear values are observed just to the north of the area, but the
limited amount present (~25-35 kt) will allow for storm growth. PWAT
values have increased across the area to >1.5", which could also
result in localized flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.
Decent low level lapse rates from the very warm surface temperatures
favor the potential for cold-pool dominated storms with water-loaded
downdrafts. Damaging winds are the primary threat with any storm,
although cannot rule out large hail. The northern half of the area
from a line roughly west to east across Farmville/Chesterfield/
Mathews/Accomac are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9
PM. The timing of the convection will likely begin late afternoon to
early evening in the piedmont and reaching the RIC metro around 7-8
PM. Further south, a cap on the environment with less favorable
conditions leaves more uncertainty on how strong storms will be. Any
storms would reach SE VA late evening around 9-10 PM, which is a
less than favorable time for severe storms due to the loss of
daytime heat. If the environment is able to sustain storms, a
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for portions
outside the current watch.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon
into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated
strong to severe storms.
The aforementioned cold front will be slow to move out of the area
and a subsequent surface low will form along the front and slide
across the area Tuesday as an MCV. With the front slowly crossing
the area Tuesday, warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s across the SE VA/NE NC will keep
sufficient instability levels throughout the day. PWAT values will
quickly rebound with values >2.0" for areas along the Ches. Bay and
Atlantic Coast. Localized areas could see an additional 1.00-2.00"
of rainfall, with more widespread values of 0.50-1.00" of rainfall
across a large portion of the area Tuesday, on top of any rainfall
tonight. While any and all rain is beneficial, there is a concern
for areas of flash flooding, especially the urban and poor drainage
areas. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms (level 1
of 5) as isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds.
There is still some uncertainty with storm development, but the 12z
models have came into better agreement with training showers and
possible storms.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.
A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping
Wednesday dry. Temperatures won't be much cooler though, with highs
near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring
back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the
week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up for late week.
Mainly seasonable temperatures are expected, with diurnally driven,
scattered late-day and evening showers and storms possible each day.
Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight
lows in the 60s to near 70.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...
VFR conditions continue through early evening at all terminals.
Gusty southwest winds has picked up across all terminals (gusts to
25 kt), and will decrease this evening to 5-10 kt. Scattered
showers/storms will move west to east across the area this evening.
There is still some uncertainty with the arrival time, but SBY and
RIC have the highest chance in seeing degraded flight conditions
from these storms, as storms will likely lose momentum as they move
eastward given the late time of day. Have included 3 hour TEMPOs for
RIC and SBY beginning 23z and 00z respectively, while maintaining
PROB30s for ECG and ORF from 01z-04/23. Storms look to fall apart
before reaching ECG, so have maintained VCSH for these terminals.
Behind the storms, there will likely be patchy low stratus/fog in
areas that received rainfall. Low-end MVFR CIGs have been included
for RIC and SBY after 06z/23 through sunrise.
Outlook: Additional flight restrictions from more showers/storms
Tuesday is likely, especially across the SE terminals as a front and
surface low moves across the area. Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late
day showers/storms possible Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through
tonight with gusty S-SE winds ahead of an approaching system.
- Sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of this week.
Afternoon weather analysis shows a low pressure system tracking
across eastern OH and western PA. The pressure gradient ahead of the
low has tightened over the waters allowing winds to increase out of
the S around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the bay and 25kt
across the ocean. Waves are much lower than expected with 1-2ft
across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the
evening and into tonight, the pressure gradient will continue
to tighten and winds will increase to 20-25kt with some gusts
approaching 30kt. The highest confidence in these 30kt gusts are
across the ocean waters north of the VA/NC border. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued and are in effect for all waters,
now including the Sound and southern coastal waters, as hi-res
guidance continues to gusts around 25kt. Seas will also increase
to 3-4ft across the bay and 4-5ft across the ocean. In addition
to the wind, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and into tonight. These storms could pose the
risk of gusts greater than 34kt and a waterspout cannot be ruled
out especially across the the far north.
The low will track north and a weak cold front will pass across the
waters tomorrow. Winds shift to the NW by late tomorrow afternoon/
evening behind the front, and may increase slightly tomorrow night.
Will note that additional SCA maybe needed as models continue to
hint on gusts nearing 20kt. Local probs have increased to 50% of
gusts greater than 18kt across the bay tomorrow evening/night.
Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected the rest of the week as
high pressure returns.
Rip current risk has been downgraded for today to moderate due to
reports and the waves being lower than expected. The rip risk looks
to be low through much of this week.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654-
656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ635>637-639.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
&&
DISCUSSION...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI/HETHazardous weather outlook, Jun 22, 5:24 PM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075>078-083>086-099-100-
509>513-515>522-232230-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-New Kent-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Accomack-Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Wakefield.
NCZ013>017-030>032-VAZ097-523>525-528>531-232230-
Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Chesapeake-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible later this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ102-VAZ098-232230-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible later this
evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ012-VAZ065>067-079>082-087>090-092-514-232230-
Northampton-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Wakefield.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 22, 6:28 PM EST, 40 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
728 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 NE Bowling Green 38.07N 77.33W
06/22/2026 Caroline VA 911 Call Center
Multiple trees down between Bowling Green
and Port Royal. Time Estimated by Radar.
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 22, 6:38 PM EST, 30 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
738 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SE Golansville 37.94N 77.47W
06/22/2026 Caroline VA 911 Call Center
Multiple trees down including trees on wires
across southern Caroline county. Time
estimated by Radar.
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 22, 6:51 PM EST, 17 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
751 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0741 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 NNW Dodlyt 37.92N 76.52W
06/22/2026 Northumberland VA Emergency Mngr
Emergency manager reported
branches/limbs/trees down along Coan Stage
area of Heathsville.
&&
HETLocal storm report, Jun 22, 6:56 PM EST, 12 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
756 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Epworth 37.79N 77.21W
06/22/2026 King William VA 911 Call Center
Damaged power-line along King William Ave.
Time Estimated by radar.
&&
HETSpecial weather statement, Jun 22, 7:01 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
801 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
VAZ080>086-088>090-514-516-518-520-523-230100-
Surry VA-Dinwiddie VA-Middlesex VA-Eastern King and Queen VA-
Eastern Henrico VA-York VA-Gloucester VA-James City VA-
Charles City VA-Mathews VA-New Kent VA-Prince George VA-Sussex VA-
Eastern King William VA-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights) VA-
801 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHWESTERN
YORK...NORTH CENTRAL SUSSEX...CENTRAL DINWIDDIE...JAMES CITY...
SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...GLOUCESTER...SOUTHEASTERN KING AND
QUEEN...CHARLES CITY...PRINCE GEORGE...NEW KENT...MATHEWS...
SOUTHEASTERN HENRICO...SOUTHEASTERN KING WILLIAM...AND NORTHERN SURRY
COUNTIES...THE CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF HOPEWELL...THE
CITY OF PETERSBURG AND THE CITY OF WILLIAMSBURG THROUGH 900 PM EDT...
At 801 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near West Point to near Charles City to near
McKenney. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
vehicles.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Petersburg, Dinwiddie, Charles City, West Point, Fort Gregg-Adams,
Prince George, Garysville, Holdcroft, Ruthville, and Dewitt around
805 PM EDT.
Toano, Saluda, Burrowsville, Rustic, and Glenns around 810 PM EDT.
Claremont, Disputanta, Norge, and Carson around 815 PM EDT.
Cabin Point around 820 PM EDT.
Williamsburg and Hartfield around 825 PM EDT.
Gloucester Courthouse around 830 PM EDT.
Queens Lake, College Of William And Mary, Deltaville, Hayes, and
Blakes around 835 PM EDT.
Gloucester Point, Jamestown, Kings Point, York Terrace, and Gwynn
around 840 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Eltham, Croaker,
Moon, Wayside, Laban, Camp Peary, Grafton, Amburg, Glendale, and Rose
Garden.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central, eastern and east central Virginia. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for south central,
central, southeastern and east central Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3732 7752 3768 7705 3757 7625 3743 7622
3737 7624 3705 7709 3699 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 262DEG 40KT 3758 7678 3731 7712 3704 7772
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WrayLocal storm report, Jun 22, 7:04 PM EST, 4 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
804 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0720 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 W Richmond 37.48N 77.49W
06/22/2026 City of Richmond VA 911 Call Center
3 trees down along Orcutt Ln. Time Estimated
by Radar.
&&
HET