What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Caribou, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 1:08 PM EST, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) The threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues this afternoon and evening, mainly over western areas. 2) Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 1:08 PM EST, 4 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
208 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
continues this afternoon and evening, mainly over western areas.
2) Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes through
Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm
chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...The threat for localized heavy rainfall and
flash flooding continues this afternoon and evening, mainly
over western areas.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
Backdoor cold front is now in eastern Aroostook as seen on
visible satellite imagery. Storms developed in between the
backdoor cold front and the eastward moving cold front coming in
fm Quebec. Southerly flow over central and wrn portions of the
area has continued to funnel anomalous moisture into the Central
Highlands and the North Woods. In fact 12z GYX sounding set a
record with a PW value of 1.91 inches.
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for wrn zones through 07z
tonight due to high PW values, small Corfidi Vectors and
efficient warm rain processes. The threat for flash flooding,
with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, continues through
the time of fropa which looks to occur over part of CWA by 07z.
KEY MESSAGE 2..Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes
through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and
thunderstorm chances.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves towards Maine and
enters New England by Sunday. Rain moves in from west to east,
lasting Sunday into late Monday. Instability on Sunday ranges
from between 500-800 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates,
however mid-level lapse rates are meager. Instability may be
limited by capping inversion in the afternoon but cannot rule
out isolated thunderstorm development, mainly over the north and
west. Prolonged southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine is
anticipated to keep the Downeast region stable. Roughly
anticipating about one half to three quarters of an inch of
rain with these showers. Could be some locally higher spots of
higher rain totals in regions favoring thunderstorm development.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This afternoon...VFR/MVFR at BGR. BHB likely to see VFR before
plummeting to IFR after 21z as marine layer moves back north.
Aroostook terminals to see IFR continues remainder of the
afternoon and overnight. SSE winds 5-10kts.
Saturday...IFR/LIFR with FG/BR in the AM becoming VFR/MVFR late
morning. VFR by afternoon. SE winds shifting WNW 5-15kt.
Saturday Night...VFR at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. Chance for MVFR and
isolated VCTS at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Winds light and variable.
Sunday-Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR north due to rain showers and
potential thunderstorms in the morning and day. VFR/MVFR
Downeast terminals. S winds with gusts 15-25KT possible Sunday.
LLWS possible Sunday night.
Monday...MVFR in rain showers in the morning. Potential for
isolated thunder Downeast terminals in the morning. Potential
for isolated thunder at KFVE and KCAR Monday evening. S winds,
shifting WSW by afternoon, with gusts 15-20KT possible.
Monday night-Wednesday...VFR. W winds, 5-10KT, gusts to 20kts
Tuesday afternoon. Winds becoming SW Tuesday night increasing to
5-10kts Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be below small craft levels all waters
through the weekend. Winds and seas approach small craft levels
over the waters out to 25NM Sunday night. Conditions drop below
small craft levels on Monday afternoon and remain that way into
the middle of next week. Fog will reduce visibilities over the
waters tonight.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through late tonight for MEZ001-003-004-010-031.
MARINE...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...21
AVIATION...21
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 1:21 PM EST, 4 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-140000-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
Including the cities of Allagash, Clayton Lake, Madawaska,
Fort Kent, Frenchville, Presque Isle, Caribou, Van Buren, Mars Hill,
Ashland, Baker Lake, Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park,
Churchill Dam, Mount Katahdin, Ripogenus, Telos Lake,
Caucomgomoc Lake, Chamberlain Lake, Millinocket, East Millinocket,
Patten, Medway, Houlton, Hodgdon, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, Greenville,
Monson, Blanchard, Lincoln, Howland, Springfield, Bangor, Brewer,
Orono, Old Town, Amherst, Aurora, Dedham, Eastbrook, Great Pond,
Calais, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Princeton, Ellsworth, Bar Harbor,
Bucksport, Orland, Castine, Eastport, Perry, Machias, Cherryfield,
Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Guilford, Danforth, Vanceboro, and Topsfield
221 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...National Weather Service Cold Water Safety Message...
* The warm air temperatures this weekend in the low to mid 80s may
cause people to underestimate the dangers of the cold water
temperatures which are currently only around 60 on the lakes and
around 70 on the rivers.
* The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to
anyone immersed in the water. According to the Maine Warden
Service, even when the water temperature is below 70 degrees,
hypothermia and loss of dexterity can occur in 45 minutes or
less. Anyone on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan
accordingly if recreating this weekend and use extreme caution to
avoid this threat. Paddle smart from the start and always wear
your life jacket!
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 2:34 PM EST, 2 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
MEZ004-005-122015-
Northern Piscataquis ME-Northern Penobscot ME-
334 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS AND
NORTH CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...
At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Katahdin, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Patten, Mount Katahdin, Ripogenus, Mount Chase, Katahdin Woods and
Waters National Monument, Shin Pond, Sherman Station, Baxter State
Park, Stacyville, and Katahdin Lake.
This includes State Highway 11 near Sherman Station.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4618 6860 4596 6843 4589 6843 4575 6908
4590 6920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 245DEG 27KT 4587 6902
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SMSpecial weather statement, Jun 12, 5:18 PM EST, 12 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
618 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
MEZ010-015-031-122300-
Southern Penobscot ME-Southern Piscataquis ME-Central Piscataquis ME-
618 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND
WESTERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...
At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kingsbury Plantation, or 12 miles southwest of Guilford, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Dexter, Monson, Blanchard, Kingsbury Plantation, Corinna,
Sangerville, Parkman, Abbot, Wellington, and Kingsbury.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4526 6953 4500 6920 4494 6932 4507 6936
4505 6950 4504 6950 4503 6952 4502 6952
4501 6962 4509 6964 4511 6966 4512 6965
4520 6968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 323DEG 13KT 4514 6958
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SMLocal storm report, Jun 12, 5:23 PM EST, 7 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Caribou ME
623 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM Flood 1 ENE Sebec 45.28N 69.10W
06/12/2026 Piscataquis ME Trained Spotter
report of Old Brownville Road washed out in
places.
&&Local storm report, Jun 12, 5:24 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Caribou ME
624 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM Hail 1 ENE Sebec 45.28N 69.10W
06/12/2026 E0.25 Inch Piscataquis ME Trained Spotter
&&